I think this progression could make sense as a personal learning progression. The real world is probably more complex than this though. See for example https:/

I think this progression could make sense as a personal learning progression. The real world is probably more complex than this though. See for example https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27468360 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27468360 where the person mentions pressure to simplify advice and Tetlocks own work shows that the hedgehogs were the more famous and successful people. So some people may migrate backwards by simplifying a message for maximum impact.