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Tetlock also found that foxes were less likely to be famous because contingent advice is harder to explain in a sound bite. Yep. Occasionally there will be a c

Tetlock also found that foxes were less likely to be famous because contingent advice is harder to explain in a sound bite. Yep. Occasionally there will be a complex problem with a simple solution. More often, complex problems have difficult solutions. And unfortunately, If you're in a room discussing the problem and one person gives a simple solution and you try to start a conversation about the complexities involved and resolving sub-problems... Well, you could be the one who is wrong, but in my experience that's often not the case, though unfortunately people favor the easy answer. That said I have also occasionally seen the simple solution proven right. There's just no one size fits all approach. Personally, I've been wrong both ways and right both ways in my career. When I get it wrong and I'm fortunate, I also come up with the better solution too. Regardless, I've learned to be skeptical of my own simple solutions too.

GeneralMayhem 5y ago
>Occasionally there will be a complex problem with a simple solution. Whenever this has happened in my experience, it's come with the monkey's-paw irony that while the solution is simple, the reason why it's a solution, or at least a complete solution, is not. That almost makes it worse - people who aren't intimately familiar with the problem will see the simple solution, think the problem must have been similarly easy to understand, and then think that there must be something wrong with the solution.
l33t2328 5y ago
> one person gives a simple solution and you try to start a conversation about the complexities involved and resolving sub-problems A simple “that solution doesn’t seem to address $subProblemA or sufficiently handle $efgeCaseB” would do the trick, eh?
- ineedasername 5y ago
  You would think so, and sometimes it does. Sometimes you get looked at as being too negative and people decide well let's give the easy option a shot. If it's wrong we'll adjust." That actually isn't a bad way to go either, as long as there's nothing time/resource critical at stake and an incorrect "easy" solution doesn't make things worse. I've managed to head off some of those. Had a CEO who favored simple solutions, but would listen to options. And I had a good manager who brought me along to important meetings. The CEO would hear me out. Sometimes they agreed.l, and things worked out. Sometimes the opposite. Once though I did see them cut a Gordian Knot in a very simply way-- though for some rather painful. I still think it was a drastic oversimplified solution to a problem where there were better options, but others had had a chance at those better options and dropped the ball (basically ignored it), and the problem did have to get solved...

GeneralMayhem 5y ago

>Occasionally there will be a complex problem with a simple solution. Whenever this has happened in my experience, it's come with the monkey's-paw irony that while the solution is simple, the reason why it's a solution, or at least a complete solution, is not. That almost makes it worse - people who aren't intimately familiar with the problem will see the simple solution, think the problem must have been similarly easy to understand, and then think that there must be something wrong with the solution.

l33t2328 5y ago

> one person gives a simple solution and you try to start a conversation about the complexities involved and resolving sub-problems A simple “that solution doesn’t seem to address $subProblemA or sufficiently handle $efgeCaseB” would do the trick, eh?

ineedasername 5y ago
You would think so, and sometimes it does. Sometimes you get looked at as being too negative and people decide well let's give the easy option a shot. If it's wrong we'll adjust." That actually isn't a bad way to go either, as long as there's nothing time/resource critical at stake and an incorrect "easy" solution doesn't make things worse. I've managed to head off some of those. Had a CEO who favored simple solutions, but would listen to options. And I had a good manager who brought me along to important meetings. The CEO would hear me out. Sometimes they agreed.l, and things worked out. Sometimes the opposite. Once though I did see them cut a Gordian Knot in a very simply way-- though for some rather painful. I still think it was a drastic oversimplified solution to a problem where there were better options, but others had had a chance at those better options and dropped the ball (basically ignored it), and the problem did have to get solved...