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>It's spreading a lot less these days, largely because people around you have started getting the vaccine Cases were going down significantly in the USA before

by daenz 5y ago

>It's spreading a lot less these days, largely because people around you have started getting the vaccine Cases were going down significantly in the USA before the mass rollout of the vaccine. 100% guarantee that people forget that unpleasant fact. Sources: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/14/why-coronavirus-cases-are-dropping/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/14/why-coronav... https://abc7news.com/covid-cases-in-us-johnson-and-vaccine-coronavirus-usa-america-today/10354482/ https://abc7news.com/covid-cases-in-us-johnson-and-vaccine-c... https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/why-covid-19-cases-are-falling-so-fast/618041/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/why-covid-...

alisonkisk 5y ago
Cases "went down" (and also up) 3 times due to wave effects. Since the vaccine, the ups stopped.
- daenz 5y ago
  The cases from January 9th to February 23 represent an 80% reduction in cases, from 250,000 to 55,000. Where are these "waves"? Do you mean when it went from 60,000 to 70,000 from March to April? This was down from 250,000 in early Jan. This is what I'm talking about. People want to rewrite history to make it seem like we were all screwed until the vaccine showed up. No, experts were talking about how cases were going down drastically and it wasn't the cause of vaccine.
sellyme 5y ago
> Cases were going down significantly in the USA before the mass rollout of the vaccine. This is a very vague statement, so let's put some numbers onto it: Total US vaccination rates exceeded 1% on January 2nd 2021. The US 7-day rolling average case count peaked on January 11th 2021. At that point, 2.7% of the population was vaccinated, and 632,000 people were being vaccinated every day (again, 7-day rolling average). Cases were almost certainly going to trend down (albeit to a lesser extent) anyway, but I would argue that mass rollout was concurrent with a ~94% drop in case count.
- daenz 5y ago
  “I don’t think the vaccine is having much of an impact at all on case rates," Tom Frieden said in an interview Sunday on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS.” “It’s what we’re doing right: staying apart, wearing masks, not traveling, not mixing with others indoors.” That's the former director of the CDC. Do you disagree with his assessment?
  - sellyme 5y ago
    The "Sunday" in that quote is referring to February 14, 2021, when the daily case count was more than six times what it is today, and was still ~1.4x the peak of the previous wave. The comment you initially replied to said "these days", which in the context of a rapidly changing pandemic I don't really consider to include "4 months ago".
    - daenz 5y ago
      What explains the 80% drop from early January to the end of February, a drop that experts are not attributing to the vaccine?
      - sellyme 5y ago
        The expert you quoted addressed a ~64% drop to mid-February, not an 80% drop. If you have a different source espousing a similar sentiment from the end of February, feel free to share that. The explanation for that is probably largely similar to the explanation for the 49% drop between 20 July 2020 and 12 September 2020. As a reminder, the claim you responded to was addressing the 94% drop from early January to now.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
        daenz 5y ago
        So is 64% drop in the middle of February is not the result of vaccine but then the ending result of an 80% drop by the end of February is? That makes no sense sorry. It's clear you want to rewrite the timeline to show that the vaccine caused the massive drop down to where it is now. So I don't see a point today in this further with you.

by daenz 5y ago

alisonkisk 5y ago

Cases "went down" (and also up) 3 times due to wave effects. Since the vaccine, the ups stopped.

daenz 5y ago
The cases from January 9th to February 23 represent an 80% reduction in cases, from 250,000 to 55,000. Where are these "waves"? Do you mean when it went from 60,000 to 70,000 from March to April? This was down from 250,000 in early Jan. This is what I'm talking about. People want to rewrite history to make it seem like we were all screwed until the vaccine showed up. No, experts were talking about how cases were going down drastically and it wasn't the cause of vaccine.

sellyme 5y ago

> Cases were going down significantly in the USA before the mass rollout of the vaccine. This is a very vague statement, so let's put some numbers onto it: Total US vaccination rates exceeded 1% on January 2nd 2021. The US 7-day rolling average case count peaked on January 11th 2021. At that point, 2.7% of the population was vaccinated, and 632,000 people were being vaccinated every day (again, 7-day rolling average). Cases were almost certainly going to trend down (albeit to a lesser extent) anyway, but I would argue that mass rollout was concurrent with a ~94% drop in case count.

daenz 5y ago
“I don’t think the vaccine is having much of an impact at all on case rates," Tom Frieden said in an interview Sunday on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS.” “It’s what we’re doing right: staying apart, wearing masks, not traveling, not mixing with others indoors.” That's the former director of the CDC. Do you disagree with his assessment?
- sellyme 5y ago
  The "Sunday" in that quote is referring to February 14, 2021, when the daily case count was more than six times what it is today, and was still ~1.4x the peak of the previous wave. The comment you initially replied to said "these days", which in the context of a rapidly changing pandemic I don't really consider to include "4 months ago".
  - daenz 5y ago
    What explains the 80% drop from early January to the end of February, a drop that experts are not attributing to the vaccine?
    - sellyme 5y ago
      The expert you quoted addressed a ~64% drop to mid-February, not an 80% drop. If you have a different source espousing a similar sentiment from the end of February, feel free to share that. The explanation for that is probably largely similar to the explanation for the 49% drop between 20 July 2020 and 12 September 2020. As a reminder, the claim you responded to was addressing the 94% drop from early January to now.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - daenz 5y ago
        So is 64% drop in the middle of February is not the result of vaccine but then the ending result of an 80% drop by the end of February is? That makes no sense sorry. It's clear you want to rewrite the timeline to show that the vaccine caused the massive drop down to where it is now. So I don't see a point today in this further with you.