3 ms·
They link to the CDC slide deck. Slide 14: https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download 488 total reports from Pfizer-Bi
by sbierwagen 5y ago
They link to the CDC slide deck. Slide 14: https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download
488 total reports from Pfizer-BioNTech, 301 reports from Moderna.
Slide 18 shows proportions. 12,169,692 doses administered. Expected number (base rate) of Myocarditis/pericarditis cases in persons under 25, 10 to 103. Cases observed: 277. So it roughly quadrupled the base rate. Which brings the adverse reaction rate up to... 0.000276%
- amluto 5y agoThis only requires that a person with myocarditis be 3-4x as likely to notice it after a COVID vaccine than without a COVID vaccine. That seems consistent with a real effect but also consistent with no vaccine effect at all.
- Fomite 5y agoThe debate between presenting absolute vs. relative rates is a really interesting one in epidemiology, for the record, with roots spanning everything from "absolute risk regression models are actually kind of tricky" to the early arguments about smoking and lung cancer, casual criteria, and R.A. Fisher being on the wrong side of history.