9 ms·
The interesting table with absolute numbers is on page 18 of [0]. Expected and observed cases are cases of myocarditis / pericarditis here. Crude rate is the nu
by _Microft 5y ago
The interesting table with absolute numbers is on page 18 of [0]. Expected and observed cases are cases of myocarditis / pericarditis here. Crude rate is the number of cases per 1 million administered doses. Use landscape mode if you are reading this from a mobile device, the table is narrow enough for that.
Age group Doses Crude Expected Observed
administ. rate cases cases
12–15 yrs 134,041 22.4 0–1 2
16–17 yrs 2,258,932 35.0 2–19 79
18–24 yrs 9,776,719 20.6 8–83 196
[0] (PDF) https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download
- delecti 5y agoCrude rate seems to be observed cases per million doses administered. So a lot more incidents than expected, but still extremely rare (0.002% of doses). Edit: missed an extra "0" in that percent, thanks for the the catch everyone who did
- _Microft 5y agoThanks! It also says that in the footnote. I added it to the comment.
- thebean11 5y agoBut it's only been a few months since administration, will the gap between expected and actual keep growing, or will they eventually level out?
- delecti 5y agoConsidering it mentions this is showing up within 1 week of administration, and there are already millions of "doses administered" accounted for in the figures, I wouldn't expect the rate to change significantly either way. I'm not a statistician though.
- drknownuffin 5y agoPost-viral myocarditis / pericarditis usually occurs in the days to weeks (up to about a month, generally) following a viral infection.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- pama 5y agoYou mean 0.002% not 0.02%
- Swenrekcah 5y agoFor those getting worried like I was, it’s 0.002% or one in 50,000, not 0.02% or one in 5,000.
- Kognito 5y agoI don’t have the exact figures to hand but a rough googling seems to suggest a 1 in 100k risk for clotting in the AZ vaccine for young adults which of course, in many countries has been withdrawn for such rates in those groups. https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/how-big-are-the-blood-clot-risks-of-the-az-jab https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/a...
- iso1210 5y agoI think in general percentages less than 0.1% should be reported as "1-in-XXX". Certainly when I create pages to measure packet loss I put 1 in 50,000 rather than 0.002%
- penagwin 5y agoAs a data oriented person I would prefer if the percentage is always available, otherwise I have to calculate it to use with other numbers. For example: (chance of getting covid) * (chance of specific side effect) = chance of getting covid and experiencing side effect.
- tomp 5y agoAll percentages should be reported as "1-in-XXX". The difference (in "certainty", not "risk") between 90% (1-in-10) and 95% (1-in-20) is the same as the difference between 98% (1-in-50) and 99% (1-in-100).
- b0tzzzzzzman 5y agoYes, let's all look at statistics and not recognize these are real people who are developing heart damage from 'safe' vaccines.
- pfg 5y ago
- xvector 5y agoAs jb775 said, most cases simply won’t be reported. I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual rate is 10-50x higher.
- sudoaza 5y agoThat's about the same rate as clots in AstraZeneca's vaccine.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y agoSo if I'm reading this correctly - that means about 1 in 90,000 people are getting myocarditis that otherwise you wouldn't expect to get myocarditis from the vaccine. Is that correct, and if so, is that a big deal?
- hnarn 5y agoThis feels like a pretty lazy anecdote to mention off hand without any context of how these two side effects compare in terms of lethality.
- Santosh83 5y agoBlood clots from the adenovirus vector vaccines are far more lethal than the myocarditis. A good fraction die because the clot happens to be CVST (in the brain). The mRNA vaccines seem to be the safest overall, although there is curiously little data coming in from inactivated virus vaccines. I'd be interested in seeing if they cause similar issues as the other two.
- jb775 5y agoBut this is only reported cases. Most people wouldn't report even if they had symptoms. Others could be impacted without currently having symptoms. Now prop this data of actual medical conditions created as a result of getting the covid vaccine up against the likelihood of getting covid in the first place, and the likelihood of having lifelong side effects as a result of getting covid. Risk of getting an experimental vaccine substantially outweighs the reward of the "protection" it provides.
- nosianu 5y agoNot sure why teh parent post got downvoted - we have plenty of examples right here in the various sub threads of people telling us exactly that. Almost none of all those who wrote a comment with their own anecdote seem to have reported it, many only realizing that there even is anything worth reporting after reading this discussion right here. For most people it is perfectly normal not to report anything unless it's bad enough that they have to see a doctor. Most people already expect some side effects for a few days since we've been told to expect it, for anyone following the media. A statement about under-reporting is not automatically "anti-vax".
- mopsi 5y ago> For most people it is perfectly normal not to report anything unless it's bad enough that they have to see a doctor. This is exactly what's making me restless. Young men are the least likely group to see a doctor unless it's really bad. Thus the official statistics may be severely underreporting the real situation.