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The problem with looking at Manhattan's value inflation is that nobody at the time knew what Manhattan would become. What was the going rate for similarly occu
by leoedin 5y ago
The problem with looking at Manhattan's value inflation is that nobody at the time knew what Manhattan would become.
What was the going rate for similarly occupied land that didn't become Manhattan further north or south? What's that land worth today?
- ghaff 5y agoPicking a random listing for forest land in upstate New York (no land), maybe $1K-$5K per acre. (Of course, even at the time, Manhattan was known to be on the ocean with a good harbor so not really a fair comparison.)
- ballenf 5y agoYes, it makes about as much sense to talk about the ROI of a soon-to-be-winning lottery ticket before and after the winning numbers are announced while ignoring the losing tickets.
- NickM 5y agoI think that's exactly the point OP was making. They are saying that even in a situation like Manhattan where nobody had any idea that the land would one day be worth a fortune, the average annual percentage increase in land value has not actually been that high. Certainly if you picked some random plot of land that's not part of a huge city, the numbers would be even smaller.