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This idea that oil is on its way out is truly laughable. In fact, cancelling this pipeline might do far more harm than good. Simple exercise: - Fire-up Excel

This idea that oil is on its way out is truly laughable. In fact, cancelling this pipeline might do far more harm than good. Simple exercise: - Fire-up Excel - Model a future with 100 million electric cars - Determine how much power (not energy) will be required to plug them in every day Now answer a simple question: Were is this energy going to come from? Then realize that the oil economy goes way beyond just fuel. This is a complex problem with an almost unlimited number of variables. For example, the buttons and the cloth of the shirt you are wearing are likely made with oil byproducts. The same is the case for parts of the sewing machines, tools, computers and even the building where it was made. The machines required oil-based lubricants. The factory used other oil-based products, such as release agents and other chemicals. The people who work there, in turn, could not live or even get to work, without myriad products made from or that require oil derivatives. And then there’s the vehicles, transportation and communications systems, all of which depend on oil for materials (plastics) and fuel. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Ignoring reality does not lead to better outcomes. Go back to power required to charge 100 million vehicles. Given our current energy infrastructure we would have to burn astronomical quantities of everything we can burn in order to support “clean” transportation. Either that or we have to start building nuclear power plants at a pace and a scale never before seen. Not saying this pipeline saves the world. I am simply suggesting we are failing to exercise critical thinking and, because of this, tend to focus on the wrong problems. It is far easier for politicians to sell “pipeline = evil) than to discuss the energy realities of all-electric transportation at scale. One gets you votes. The other one gets you voted out. And that’s how we end-up on the wrong path.

tbihl 5y ago
I am all in favor of the idea of pipelines, because they improve on rail/road transport from an efficiency perspective. Having said that, the US seems not to have the legal or ethical framework in place to make them work, because the leaks are too common, too slowly-discovered, and too enormous. So maybe doing pipelines correctly is actually uncompetitive with other forms of moving oil, because time and time it again it seems to be a rejected option by the people building leaky pipelines.
- robomartin 5y ago
  I am not sure that’s right. Despite popular memes, the goal of the oil industry isn’t to destroy the planet. I have a friend who works in that industry. I did not understand just how difficult the work is until he got this job and shared what he learned. We are very much removed from this reality. We pump gasoline at the station and buy plastic spoons and forks without a sense of what it took to get there. Pipelines are no different from any other engineering endeavor. They are difficult to design and build and, no, we can’t make them perfect any more than you can make a hammer or a screwdriver indestructible. I don’t think it is about the US being incompetent or careless. I also don’t think it is about nefarious intent on the part of corporations. I could not imagine a nastier industry to navigate, from a political and regulatory perspective. This, I think, is the problem. The deep political divisions in the US create a situation where energy policy is, at best, disjointed, disorganized and likely misplaced. I think shutting down modern pipelines is ridiculous. Not because I love oil. No. I think it is because I try hard to be realistic about not just energy, but also the massive and deep chain of products and services that depend on oil derivatives. Simple example: Tens to hundreds of millions of people world wide would have died from COVID if we did not have oil and it’s derivatives to support what we had to do to protect ourselves, fight it and find a cure. Perspective is important.
  - tbihl 5y ago
    The specifics of transporting oil are foreign to me, and my guesses about differences and magnitudes of cost are sourced primarily from [0]. Having said that, it seems that the enormous savings to be had by using pipelines should be channeled back into more sensors, robustness, and/or monitoring. The article I linked cites $50B of annual savings on oil transported by Keystone XL. Great! Maybe let's put 10-20% of that back into more sensors, hiring more people for monitoring/inspections, or better. When I look at the Wikipedia page of oil spills, I want oil pipelines if the US can be like Canada, where spills often release <1000 barrels (still a lot, but representing very fast response), not a place where it's hundreds of thousands of barrels, and not detected by the companies themselves most of the time. [0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/10/11/which-is-safer-for-transporting-crude-oil-rail-truck-pipeline-or-boat/?sh=5aa293f57b23 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/10/11/which-is-...

tbihl 5y ago

I am all in favor of the idea of pipelines, because they improve on rail/road transport from an efficiency perspective. Having said that, the US seems not to have the legal or ethical framework in place to make them work, because the leaks are too common, too slowly-discovered, and too enormous. So maybe doing pipelines correctly is actually uncompetitive with other forms of moving oil, because time and time it again it seems to be a rejected option by the people building leaky pipelines.

robomartin 5y ago
I am not sure that’s right. Despite popular memes, the goal of the oil industry isn’t to destroy the planet. I have a friend who works in that industry. I did not understand just how difficult the work is until he got this job and shared what he learned. We are very much removed from this reality. We pump gasoline at the station and buy plastic spoons and forks without a sense of what it took to get there. Pipelines are no different from any other engineering endeavor. They are difficult to design and build and, no, we can’t make them perfect any more than you can make a hammer or a screwdriver indestructible. I don’t think it is about the US being incompetent or careless. I also don’t think it is about nefarious intent on the part of corporations. I could not imagine a nastier industry to navigate, from a political and regulatory perspective. This, I think, is the problem. The deep political divisions in the US create a situation where energy policy is, at best, disjointed, disorganized and likely misplaced. I think shutting down modern pipelines is ridiculous. Not because I love oil. No. I think it is because I try hard to be realistic about not just energy, but also the massive and deep chain of products and services that depend on oil derivatives. Simple example: Tens to hundreds of millions of people world wide would have died from COVID if we did not have oil and it’s derivatives to support what we had to do to protect ourselves, fight it and find a cure. Perspective is important.
- tbihl 5y ago
  The specifics of transporting oil are foreign to me, and my guesses about differences and magnitudes of cost are sourced primarily from [0]. Having said that, it seems that the enormous savings to be had by using pipelines should be channeled back into more sensors, robustness, and/or monitoring. The article I linked cites $50B of annual savings on oil transported by Keystone XL. Great! Maybe let's put 10-20% of that back into more sensors, hiring more people for monitoring/inspections, or better. When I look at the Wikipedia page of oil spills, I want oil pipelines if the US can be like Canada, where spills often release <1000 barrels (still a lot, but representing very fast response), not a place where it's hundreds of thousands of barrels, and not detected by the companies themselves most of the time. [0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/10/11/which-is-safer-for-transporting-crude-oil-rail-truck-pipeline-or-boat/?sh=5aa293f57b23 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2018/10/11/which-is-...