What you describe as the "productivity" vs. "dumbification" seems to me more like the distinction between a professional environment and an entertainment medium

What you describe as the "productivity" vs. "dumbification" seems to me more like the distinction between a professional environment and an entertainment medium, respectively. There is no point in comparing Windows 95 tools to IPhone apps without taking into consideration the upside down target audiences. I'd argue that GUI evolution has all but stagnated: The shift from specialized tools for individuals to mass adoption brought us much more new ways of interacting with our devices. The adoption of personal computing devices in the last several years has been unprecedented. We'd still be reading paper newspapers, watching TV and using the landline network for communication if it were not for the recent GUI evolution. The main problem I see is the trend to remove power user features altogether instead of having them be hidden in the settings. Ease of use and customizability can get along just well, but are rarely to be found. So your statement about augmentation is right anyway. Edit: I think that different OSes, different devices for different target audiences is not an actual problem. The uses of a computer can be so vast. The trend to integrate smart devices has only begun and requires different usability approaches. We should not compare Excel UX to Tinder UX