4 ms·

Maybe where you live. There's a 0% chance human driving will be banned in America until we are all well passed driving age.

ashtonkem 5y ago
I wouldn’t be so confident. I think you’re drastically underrating how much convenience will drive changes in behavior and social expectation. If self driving works (big if, I’m dubious about this), then the vast majority of us will switch over to using it for regular trips very quickly. As that happens, the perception about what is safe and socially acceptable will change quickly, as will the types of vehicles consumers demand. This type of change isn’t instant, but it can happen faster than a human lifespan. Think about someone born in the 70s and what they’ve experienced with cigarettes. They were born into a world where close to half the US population smoked, and they’re now retiring in a world where smoking is de facto banned in most non-residential buildings. That is a drastic change, and remember that tobacco is addictive, which hampers change much more effectively than habits like driving.
- kortex 5y ago
  I wouldn't be so confident 100% ("steering-wheel-less") L5 self-driving is possible. Long tail is a thing. There will for a long time be a need for manual override, for things like tricky parking or slow-speed maneuvering, bad weather, weird lightning conditions, etc. That rules out de facto driving ban. That leaves driving ban by fiat. Also never gonna happen in this century, unless it carves out an exception for "classic cars." As far as hazard ratios go, cigarette smoking is orders of magnitude more dangerous than driving. Not a good comparison.
  - ashtonkem 5y ago
    > I wouldn't be so confident 100% ("steering-wheel-less") L5 self-driving is possible. I’m not, you didn’t read what I wrote. I specifically predicated my theory on if it was possible, and indicated my reservations there.
  - iso1210 5y ago
    Even ignoring smokers - second hand smoking kills more than cars https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/heal... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...
redbeard0x0a 5y ago
It wont be banned, it will just cost much more to insure (since it will be directly tied to risk, computers already drive better than humans). If you drive manually, you will need to pay for the privilege.
- ars 5y ago
  > since it will be directly tied to risk, computers already drive better than humans They do not! Are you comparing computer driving in "easy" situations with human driving in all situations?
  - rout39574 5y ago
    I think the comparison is made over the entire range of situations. If we can get rid of, or vastly reduce, the problems of inattention, exhaustion, rage, chemical impairments and the like, we have a huge improvement. I think that improvement is vastly more, cost measured in human life, than the problems we see with computer control in odd situations. So yes. They do drive better than humans. The fact that their failings are wack-doodle to us (you drove _right_ into that truck??) is swallowed in the fact that their failings are profoundly fewer than ours.
    - avereveard 5y ago
      > their failings are profoundly fewer than ours Better start showing off some statistics along with that claim.
- kuratkull 5y ago
  Insurance is already directly tied to risk - car ensurers are profitable companies with current rates
jsight 5y ago
Yeah, I don't think it will ever be completely banned. It might be restricted a little bit, though. But the big benefit that I see of self-driving is that a lot of manual driving becomes safer. Autonomous vehicles won't overlook motorcycles and Miatas. Autonomous cars will go a long way to making small, fun vehicles safe again.

ashtonkem 5y ago

I wouldn’t be so confident. I think you’re drastically underrating how much convenience will drive changes in behavior and social expectation. If self driving works (big if, I’m dubious about this), then the vast majority of us will switch over to using it for regular trips very quickly. As that happens, the perception about what is safe and socially acceptable will change quickly, as will the types of vehicles consumers demand. This type of change isn’t instant, but it can happen faster than a human lifespan. Think about someone born in the 70s and what they’ve experienced with cigarettes. They were born into a world where close to half the US population smoked, and they’re now retiring in a world where smoking is de facto banned in most non-residential buildings. That is a drastic change, and remember that tobacco is addictive, which hampers change much more effectively than habits like driving.

kortex 5y ago
I wouldn't be so confident 100% ("steering-wheel-less") L5 self-driving is possible. Long tail is a thing. There will for a long time be a need for manual override, for things like tricky parking or slow-speed maneuvering, bad weather, weird lightning conditions, etc. That rules out de facto driving ban. That leaves driving ban by fiat. Also never gonna happen in this century, unless it carves out an exception for "classic cars." As far as hazard ratios go, cigarette smoking is orders of magnitude more dangerous than driving. Not a good comparison.
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  > I wouldn't be so confident 100% ("steering-wheel-less") L5 self-driving is possible. I’m not, you didn’t read what I wrote. I specifically predicated my theory on if it was possible, and indicated my reservations there.
- iso1210 5y ago
  Even ignoring smokers - second hand smoking kills more than cars https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/heal... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...

redbeard0x0a 5y ago

It wont be banned, it will just cost much more to insure (since it will be directly tied to risk, computers already drive better than humans). If you drive manually, you will need to pay for the privilege.

ars 5y ago
> since it will be directly tied to risk, computers already drive better than humans They do not! Are you comparing computer driving in "easy" situations with human driving in all situations?
- rout39574 5y ago
  I think the comparison is made over the entire range of situations. If we can get rid of, or vastly reduce, the problems of inattention, exhaustion, rage, chemical impairments and the like, we have a huge improvement. I think that improvement is vastly more, cost measured in human life, than the problems we see with computer control in odd situations. So yes. They do drive better than humans. The fact that their failings are wack-doodle to us (you drove _right_ into that truck??) is swallowed in the fact that their failings are profoundly fewer than ours.
  - avereveard 5y ago
    > their failings are profoundly fewer than ours Better start showing off some statistics along with that claim.
kuratkull 5y ago
Insurance is already directly tied to risk - car ensurers are profitable companies with current rates

jsight 5y ago

Yeah, I don't think it will ever be completely banned. It might be restricted a little bit, though. But the big benefit that I see of self-driving is that a lot of manual driving becomes safer. Autonomous vehicles won't overlook motorcycles and Miatas. Autonomous cars will go a long way to making small, fun vehicles safe again.