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It will probably be ugly and I'm not convinced there is a next-thing that will pull America out. Demographics look bad, we've nuked or productive capacity and t
by carsongross 15y ago
It will probably be ugly and I'm not convinced there is a next-thing that will pull America out. Demographics look bad, we've nuked or productive capacity and the culture has rapidly decayed in the last twenty years. There is graft and fraud well marbled throughout the entire corporate and government superstructure.
I realize I'm a paranoid nut job, but I think Gold, Guns and Startups is the right straddle: Gold and Guns for the obvious reasons, Startups because, hey, things could work out (they usually do) and because owning common stock or bonds puts you too far away from the value creation, introducing those troublesome layers of graft and fraud.
- nuthje 15y agoProductive capacity nuked? Really? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=INDPRO http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=INDPRO
- carsongross 15y agoYeah, really, even conceding the inventory rebuild/weak dollar rally in that chart. I don't think that the aggregate numbers produced by the Fed are always useful when looking at the economy: the composition of the aggregates is usually so diverse as to render the aggregate meaningless. GDP is a canonical example. The U.S. retains industrial capacity in high end and military areas, but that isn't going to help average people produce items that are valuable to one another and to people in other places, which is the core way to build wealth. We've masked this fact with debt for the last 30 years, and now it appears that that game is over.