7 ms·

Because the hardware and sensors are all local, installed on the car from the factory. There is no economic advantage, just a business advantage

gambiting 5y ago
To add to this - I'd be ok with VW charging for software updates after the first 3 years, like they do with maps. But the hardware and software that shipped from factory should work in perpetuity, period.
- cwilkes 5y ago
  > But the hardware and software that shipped from factory should work in perpetuity, period. There’s a cost to VW to keep that system running. They have to staff SWEs that can write security patches, have to maintain outdated methods to update the software, etc. And this isn’t really optional for VW to do it as if there’s a problem on a 2000 pound vehicle moving at 60 miles per hour things can get deadly quickly. For example what if there was a way to get into the car’s computer via the map software that was last updated 4 years ago? Maybe a hacker could then turn off power steering? Yes that is a hypothetical but there’s always problems with software and they need to get fixed when the consequences of not fixing them are high.
  - gambiting 5y ago
    But that's a legislative problem. I imagine at some point we'll get to a future where you can't enable autonomous self driving unless you have an approved patch 1.7X to your autonomous driving suite. Anything earlier than that is not allowed on public roads in autonomous mode. We're nowhere near that future though yet. Like, going back to my maps example - if I never pay VW for a map upgrade, my 10 year old satnav system will absolutely mislead me and try to direct me in places which could be potentially dangerous. And like....so what? The system that was installed from the factory still works, that's the point. These current systems that we have are all just glorified cruise control systems - and whatever you have in your latest Merc/BMW/Audi/Volvo/whatever will continue to work until the car itself falls apart. As far as I can see VW isn't proposing anything different - other than the payment scheme for it. Also, as for hacking risk - this is a massive risk on nearly all new vehicles on the road today and very little is being done to address it. VW charging for autonomous driving capability has little to do with that. And to add another example - there's a famous case where a woman's car has caused $180M worth of damage, as it has caught fire while being transported inside a cargo ship. Turns out there was an outstanding recall on that vehicle due to....fire risk. So initially insurers wanted to put all blame on her, since she didn't have the vehicle fixed despite the recall. But they all got nowhere, because there isn't currently any law that says you have to get your vehicle fixed when a recall is issued. Similarily, the manufacturer isn't obliged by law to make sure any recall is followed, so they were off the hook as well. What I mean to say is that these hypothetical situations are interesting to talk about, but with the current state of tech and law none of it is an actual concern.
jusssi 5y ago
I think we're not anywhere near a level where a car could drive fully autonomously just with the local hardware, without a detailed data set of all the roads and real-time updates on conditions. That data set needs to be continuously maintained. Also, they'll probably need a liability insurance for cases when their autonomous car inevitably gets in a situation where it has to choose between killing it's passengers or killing someone outside the car. Of course, they could offer a pricing model where all that is paid up front, but I doubt it would be very attractive.
- ghaff 5y ago
  One argument in favor of subscriptions is that they align the interest of the consumer and the company. With an up-front payment model, the company has no particular interest, besides customer loyalty/reputation/etc., in providing continued updates/support for older models. (Which is sometimes enough--as with Apple in many cases, but often is not as with many IoT devices.) With a subscription model they do so long as subscription revenue exceeds costs.
  - Danieru 5y ago
    Cool, so they would refund the full price of the car if people are no longer happy with it? Or would the 20K+ car just serve as strong vendor lock to be exploited in subscriptions?
    - ghaff 5y ago
      That assumes that the subscription is for the entire car. But that's pretty much what a lease is. And that's what a lot of people do. They pay a premium for a new car that they're only locked into for 3 years or so.
      - iso1210 5y ago
        And its a great model for people who want a known payment of $x and don't want to take on the risk/reward of deprecation, maintenance, resale, etc. Unlike with say housing, which sits on land which appreciates in value at a rate and has a high cost of moving (monetary and personal), a typical car for the majority of people is a means to an end which just sits their and deprecates. The cost of changing to a new car is a few minutes reprogramming the radio and seats. Ultimately what most people want is transportation which costs a reliable x¢ per mile at a given level of convienience, reliability and comfort. Cars are hardly a winner takes all business or one with little competition - there's at least a dozen major manufacturers.

gambiting 5y ago

To add to this - I'd be ok with VW charging for software updates after the first 3 years, like they do with maps. But the hardware and software that shipped from factory should work in perpetuity, period.

cwilkes 5y ago
> But the hardware and software that shipped from factory should work in perpetuity, period. There’s a cost to VW to keep that system running. They have to staff SWEs that can write security patches, have to maintain outdated methods to update the software, etc. And this isn’t really optional for VW to do it as if there’s a problem on a 2000 pound vehicle moving at 60 miles per hour things can get deadly quickly. For example what if there was a way to get into the car’s computer via the map software that was last updated 4 years ago? Maybe a hacker could then turn off power steering? Yes that is a hypothetical but there’s always problems with software and they need to get fixed when the consequences of not fixing them are high.
- gambiting 5y ago
  But that's a legislative problem. I imagine at some point we'll get to a future where you can't enable autonomous self driving unless you have an approved patch 1.7X to your autonomous driving suite. Anything earlier than that is not allowed on public roads in autonomous mode. We're nowhere near that future though yet. Like, going back to my maps example - if I never pay VW for a map upgrade, my 10 year old satnav system will absolutely mislead me and try to direct me in places which could be potentially dangerous. And like....so what? The system that was installed from the factory still works, that's the point. These current systems that we have are all just glorified cruise control systems - and whatever you have in your latest Merc/BMW/Audi/Volvo/whatever will continue to work until the car itself falls apart. As far as I can see VW isn't proposing anything different - other than the payment scheme for it. Also, as for hacking risk - this is a massive risk on nearly all new vehicles on the road today and very little is being done to address it. VW charging for autonomous driving capability has little to do with that. And to add another example - there's a famous case where a woman's car has caused $180M worth of damage, as it has caught fire while being transported inside a cargo ship. Turns out there was an outstanding recall on that vehicle due to....fire risk. So initially insurers wanted to put all blame on her, since she didn't have the vehicle fixed despite the recall. But they all got nowhere, because there isn't currently any law that says you have to get your vehicle fixed when a recall is issued. Similarily, the manufacturer isn't obliged by law to make sure any recall is followed, so they were off the hook as well. What I mean to say is that these hypothetical situations are interesting to talk about, but with the current state of tech and law none of it is an actual concern.

jusssi 5y ago

I think we're not anywhere near a level where a car could drive fully autonomously just with the local hardware, without a detailed data set of all the roads and real-time updates on conditions. That data set needs to be continuously maintained. Also, they'll probably need a liability insurance for cases when their autonomous car inevitably gets in a situation where it has to choose between killing it's passengers or killing someone outside the car. Of course, they could offer a pricing model where all that is paid up front, but I doubt it would be very attractive.

ghaff 5y ago
One argument in favor of subscriptions is that they align the interest of the consumer and the company. With an up-front payment model, the company has no particular interest, besides customer loyalty/reputation/etc., in providing continued updates/support for older models. (Which is sometimes enough--as with Apple in many cases, but often is not as with many IoT devices.) With a subscription model they do so long as subscription revenue exceeds costs.
- Danieru 5y ago
  Cool, so they would refund the full price of the car if people are no longer happy with it? Or would the 20K+ car just serve as strong vendor lock to be exploited in subscriptions?
  - ghaff 5y ago
    That assumes that the subscription is for the entire car. But that's pretty much what a lease is. And that's what a lot of people do. They pay a premium for a new car that they're only locked into for 3 years or so.
    - iso1210 5y ago
      And its a great model for people who want a known payment of $x and don't want to take on the risk/reward of deprecation, maintenance, resale, etc. Unlike with say housing, which sits on land which appreciates in value at a rate and has a high cost of moving (monetary and personal), a typical car for the majority of people is a means to an end which just sits their and deprecates. The cost of changing to a new car is a few minutes reprogramming the radio and seats. Ultimately what most people want is transportation which costs a reliable x¢ per mile at a given level of convienience, reliability and comfort. Cars are hardly a winner takes all business or one with little competition - there's at least a dozen major manufacturers.