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Most authorities are downplaying natural immunity, despite evidence like this. The more widely this spreads, the more people will realize it's ok to rely on na

Most authorities are downplaying natural immunity, despite evidence like this. The more widely this spreads, the more people will realize it's ok to rely on natural immunity, and to not blanket demonize those who are unvaccinated.

rectang 5y ago
The unvaccinated are still vectors for the infection of those who cannot be vaccinated, such as the immunocompromised. I personally don't think in terms of "blanked demonizing" people, but neither am I going to blanket-absolve all the unvaccinated — especially willful anti-vaxxers. Regardless, this study is good news — because it means that every person who is infected and then recovers contributes towards herd immunity, regardless of their outlook on vaccines.
- briefcomment 5y ago
  I'm talking about those who have recovered when I say natural immunity, not all unvaccinated.
- jdminhbg 5y ago
  > The unvaccinated are still vectors for the infection of those who cannot be vaccinated, such as the immunocompromised Is it actually the case that immunocompromised people cannot be vaccinated? The ones that I know have been; as far as I know, the mRNA vaccines by virtue of not being based on live virus are not dangerous to those with weakened immune systems.
  - jacobolus 5y ago
    Immunocompromised people can safely get the vaccine, but it might not work, leaving them still vulnerable to the virus. In recent studies something like half of organ transplant recipients did not produce antibodies after being vaccinated, and there have been a few cases where a group of vaccinated transplant recipients caught Covid (e.g. from a vaccinated nurse who had an asymptomatic infection) and had severe symptoms including some deaths.
    - ticviking 5y ago
      Can you provide a link to those cases?
  - f6v 5y ago
    There might also be not enough data on how vaccine affects people with rare health conditions.
- Sleepytime 5y ago
  The vaccinated are still vectors for the infection of those who cannot be vaccinated.
- paedubucher 5y ago
  If you are immunocompromised, you're not only vulnerable to COVID-19, but to a plethora of other viruses going around all the time.
cuchoi 5y ago
My wife and I got COVID twice 9 months apart last year. The second time my wife ended up in the hospital. We both got vaccinated as soon as we could.
- gretch 5y ago
  Wow really? Do you have positive test results that document the sequence of events? If so you should probably email these researchers or something. Bet they would be interested
  - pama 5y ago
    There is already a decent understanding of documented reinfections. The first such cases came out a year ago, e.g.: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200406006700320 https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200406006700320 , or https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550 https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfect... By the end of last summer there were clear documented cases with secondary infection from a different viral strain than the original one, e.g: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3681489 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3681489 The original publication (and the reply that I cite that raises some concerns, but leaves the main argument in place) estimated that the protection from a past infection is about 83%, so significantly smaller than that from the 2-dose mRNA vaccines. https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n124/rr-0 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n124/rr-0
    - jokethrowaway 5y ago
      While I agree reinfections are likely to exist in small numbers, the tests we're using are often not great so it's hard to say whether those were covid or something else. This year I've been heavily sick several times (and the flu almost never caused me all this pain before in my life) and it was never covid. If one of the test returned a false positive I would have been convinced it was covid. If I actually got covid again I would have believed I was one of the rare reinfections.
SkyPuncher 5y ago
> to not blanket demonize those who are unvaccinated. Well, I'm currently in quarantine from my 4 month old and wife because an acquaintance refused to get vaccinated. "young people don't die from COVID" type mentality. I attended my brother's bachelor party - of which we all thought everyone was vaccinated. Turns out this person, not only refused to get vaccinated - but had COVID exposure and still decided to attend. He told us the day after being in close contact for 3 days, that he tested positive and had symptoms during our contact with him. Of the unvaccinated people I know, this mentality is the large majority of them. They refuse to get vaccinated because they refuse to consider how their actions might actually impact someone else.
- briefcomment 5y ago
  I'm talking about those who have recovered when I say natural immunity, not all unvaccinated. Also, presumably, this person would now be as immune as someone who's gotten the vaccine, based on this study.
- bobthechef 5y ago
  > "young people don't die from COVID" type mentality. What mentality is this? It is well known that young people are at extremely low risk of dying, even more so than the average person. > He told us the day after being in close contact for 3 days, that he tested positive and had symptoms during our contact with him. The problem wasn't that your acquaintance refused the vaccine. The problem is that he didn't stay home. You could say the same thing about the flu. If you have it, don't go to parties. Who goes to a party with a flu? A cold even? I hardly think this guy is representative. There's also evidence that asymptomatic people don't spread COVID. This would mean that if they don't have symptoms, you won't get it, and if they do and they're like most people, they'll stay home which means no transmission. > Of the unvaccinated [sic] people I know, this mentality is the large majority of them. They refuse to get vaccinated because they refuse to consider how their actions might actually impact someone else. This seems unnecessarily hostile. Plenty of people don't want to be vaccinated either because they've had COVID and don't need it (this study isn't the first; Peter McCullough for example has spoken about other studies), they don't want to risk the potential side effects, including long term, of an experimental vaccine that is not technically approved by the FDA, ethical/religious reasons (the use of stem cell lines derived from aborted children during vaccine research, etc), and because the virus is not a serious threat to most people. It is disturbing how the media is lumping those wary of the COVID vaccine in with antivaxers (~2% of the population; 98% of Americans get all common immunizations), COVID deniers, or "grandma killers". Let's not do that, as the OP recommends.
hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
> Most authorities are downplaying natural immunity, despite evidence like this. OK, I think I can agree with this, I've seen lots of "getting the vaccine provides much better immunity than getting Covid"-type statements that seemed more like conjecture. > The more widely this spreads, the more people will realize it's ok to rely on natural immunity, and to not blanket demonize those who are unvaccinated. Is this a serious statement? The problem isn't that natural immunity doesn't keep make you immune, the problem is that "acquiring natural immunity" often results in death, especially for vulnerable populations.
- rayiner 5y ago
  It rarely results in death. Even men 65-75 have a only a 3% chance of dying if they get covid. To put that into perspective, according to the mortality tables, those people have a 1.5-3.5% chance of dying in a given year even under normal circumstances.
  - tptacek 5y ago
    Polio has a death rate in the mid single digits, too.
    - rayiner 5y ago
      For children and middle aged adults as well, not just people over 65. That and the permanent deformity and paralysis are a big difference.
- JeremyNT 5y ago
  > > The more widely this spreads, the more people will realize it's ok to rely on natural immunity, and to not blanket demonize those who are unvaccinated. > Is this a serious statement? The problem isn't that natural immunity doesn't keep make you immune, the problem is that "acquiring natural immunity" often results in death, especially for vulnerable populations. It's a real policy question: how much to worry about vaccinating people who already had COVID. The confusion (or propaganda?) downplaying natural immunity means that many people would needlessly get the vaccine while already possessing immunity from prior infection. In the US, this no longer matters, as we already have more vaccine supply than we have people willing to receive it. Elsewhere, though, where supplies remain scarce, we absolutely should be focusing efforts around vaccinating people who have not yet gotten the disease.
barbazoo 5y ago
I can imagine it being downplayed out of fear that it could slow down the vaccination program by pushing people over the edge that were hesitant to get vaccinated and possibly questioning covid-19 in the first place.
- briefcomment 5y ago
  It's fine if those previously infected don't get the vaccine. I don't see why information on how natural immunity is effective would make people who haven't gotten Covid even less likely to get the vaccine.
  - jacobolus 5y ago
    There are many people who are convinced their respiratory infection earlier in the pandemic was Covid despite never having been tested. While some of those may plausibly have been Covid, many were surely flu or some other disease. It would be a shame if such people avoided the vaccine under a disinformation-driven impression that the vaccines are risky, and ended up catching/spreading Covid later on.
  - barbazoo 5y ago
    I can only imagine it's because it might convince people that don't take Covid-19 seriously to not get the vaccine because even if they didn't get it, they'd be immune once infected going forward, missing the point about hospitalization, protecting the vulnerable, etc.

rectang 5y ago

The unvaccinated are still vectors for the infection of those who cannot be vaccinated, such as the immunocompromised. I personally don't think in terms of "blanked demonizing" people, but neither am I going to blanket-absolve all the unvaccinated — especially willful anti-vaxxers. Regardless, this study is good news — because it means that every person who is infected and then recovers contributes towards herd immunity, regardless of their outlook on vaccines.

briefcomment 5y ago
I'm talking about those who have recovered when I say natural immunity, not all unvaccinated.
jdminhbg 5y ago
> The unvaccinated are still vectors for the infection of those who cannot be vaccinated, such as the immunocompromised Is it actually the case that immunocompromised people cannot be vaccinated? The ones that I know have been; as far as I know, the mRNA vaccines by virtue of not being based on live virus are not dangerous to those with weakened immune systems.
- jacobolus 5y ago
  Immunocompromised people can safely get the vaccine, but it might not work, leaving them still vulnerable to the virus. In recent studies something like half of organ transplant recipients did not produce antibodies after being vaccinated, and there have been a few cases where a group of vaccinated transplant recipients caught Covid (e.g. from a vaccinated nurse who had an asymptomatic infection) and had severe symptoms including some deaths.
  - ticviking 5y ago
    Can you provide a link to those cases?
- f6v 5y ago
  There might also be not enough data on how vaccine affects people with rare health conditions.
Sleepytime 5y ago
The vaccinated are still vectors for the infection of those who cannot be vaccinated.
paedubucher 5y ago
If you are immunocompromised, you're not only vulnerable to COVID-19, but to a plethora of other viruses going around all the time.

cuchoi 5y ago

My wife and I got COVID twice 9 months apart last year. The second time my wife ended up in the hospital. We both got vaccinated as soon as we could.

gretch 5y ago
Wow really? Do you have positive test results that document the sequence of events? If so you should probably email these researchers or something. Bet they would be interested
- pama 5y ago
  There is already a decent understanding of documented reinfections. The first such cases came out a year ago, e.g.: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200406006700320 https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200406006700320 , or https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550 https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfect... By the end of last summer there were clear documented cases with secondary infection from a different viral strain than the original one, e.g: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3681489 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3681489 The original publication (and the reply that I cite that raises some concerns, but leaves the main argument in place) estimated that the protection from a past infection is about 83%, so significantly smaller than that from the 2-dose mRNA vaccines. https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n124/rr-0 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n124/rr-0
  - jokethrowaway 5y ago
    While I agree reinfections are likely to exist in small numbers, the tests we're using are often not great so it's hard to say whether those were covid or something else. This year I've been heavily sick several times (and the flu almost never caused me all this pain before in my life) and it was never covid. If one of the test returned a false positive I would have been convinced it was covid. If I actually got covid again I would have believed I was one of the rare reinfections.

SkyPuncher 5y ago

> to not blanket demonize those who are unvaccinated. Well, I'm currently in quarantine from my 4 month old and wife because an acquaintance refused to get vaccinated. "young people don't die from COVID" type mentality. I attended my brother's bachelor party - of which we all thought everyone was vaccinated. Turns out this person, not only refused to get vaccinated - but had COVID exposure and still decided to attend. He told us the day after being in close contact for 3 days, that he tested positive and had symptoms during our contact with him. Of the unvaccinated people I know, this mentality is the large majority of them. They refuse to get vaccinated because they refuse to consider how their actions might actually impact someone else.

briefcomment 5y ago
I'm talking about those who have recovered when I say natural immunity, not all unvaccinated. Also, presumably, this person would now be as immune as someone who's gotten the vaccine, based on this study.
bobthechef 5y ago
> "young people don't die from COVID" type mentality. What mentality is this? It is well known that young people are at extremely low risk of dying, even more so than the average person. > He told us the day after being in close contact for 3 days, that he tested positive and had symptoms during our contact with him. The problem wasn't that your acquaintance refused the vaccine. The problem is that he didn't stay home. You could say the same thing about the flu. If you have it, don't go to parties. Who goes to a party with a flu? A cold even? I hardly think this guy is representative. There's also evidence that asymptomatic people don't spread COVID. This would mean that if they don't have symptoms, you won't get it, and if they do and they're like most people, they'll stay home which means no transmission. > Of the unvaccinated [sic] people I know, this mentality is the large majority of them. They refuse to get vaccinated because they refuse to consider how their actions might actually impact someone else. This seems unnecessarily hostile. Plenty of people don't want to be vaccinated either because they've had COVID and don't need it (this study isn't the first; Peter McCullough for example has spoken about other studies), they don't want to risk the potential side effects, including long term, of an experimental vaccine that is not technically approved by the FDA, ethical/religious reasons (the use of stem cell lines derived from aborted children during vaccine research, etc), and because the virus is not a serious threat to most people. It is disturbing how the media is lumping those wary of the COVID vaccine in with antivaxers (~2% of the population; 98% of Americans get all common immunizations), COVID deniers, or "grandma killers". Let's not do that, as the OP recommends.

hn_throwaway_99 5y ago

> Most authorities are downplaying natural immunity, despite evidence like this. OK, I think I can agree with this, I've seen lots of "getting the vaccine provides much better immunity than getting Covid"-type statements that seemed more like conjecture. > The more widely this spreads, the more people will realize it's ok to rely on natural immunity, and to not blanket demonize those who are unvaccinated. Is this a serious statement? The problem isn't that natural immunity doesn't keep make you immune, the problem is that "acquiring natural immunity" often results in death, especially for vulnerable populations.

rayiner 5y ago
It rarely results in death. Even men 65-75 have a only a 3% chance of dying if they get covid. To put that into perspective, according to the mortality tables, those people have a 1.5-3.5% chance of dying in a given year even under normal circumstances.
- tptacek 5y ago
  Polio has a death rate in the mid single digits, too.
  - rayiner 5y ago
    For children and middle aged adults as well, not just people over 65. That and the permanent deformity and paralysis are a big difference.
JeremyNT 5y ago
> > The more widely this spreads, the more people will realize it's ok to rely on natural immunity, and to not blanket demonize those who are unvaccinated. > Is this a serious statement? The problem isn't that natural immunity doesn't keep make you immune, the problem is that "acquiring natural immunity" often results in death, especially for vulnerable populations. It's a real policy question: how much to worry about vaccinating people who already had COVID. The confusion (or propaganda?) downplaying natural immunity means that many people would needlessly get the vaccine while already possessing immunity from prior infection. In the US, this no longer matters, as we already have more vaccine supply than we have people willing to receive it. Elsewhere, though, where supplies remain scarce, we absolutely should be focusing efforts around vaccinating people who have not yet gotten the disease.

barbazoo 5y ago

I can imagine it being downplayed out of fear that it could slow down the vaccination program by pushing people over the edge that were hesitant to get vaccinated and possibly questioning covid-19 in the first place.

briefcomment 5y ago
It's fine if those previously infected don't get the vaccine. I don't see why information on how natural immunity is effective would make people who haven't gotten Covid even less likely to get the vaccine.
- jacobolus 5y ago
  There are many people who are convinced their respiratory infection earlier in the pandemic was Covid despite never having been tested. While some of those may plausibly have been Covid, many were surely flu or some other disease. It would be a shame if such people avoided the vaccine under a disinformation-driven impression that the vaccines are risky, and ended up catching/spreading Covid later on.
- barbazoo 5y ago
  I can only imagine it's because it might convince people that don't take Covid-19 seriously to not get the vaccine because even if they didn't get it, they'd be immune once infected going forward, missing the point about hospitalization, protecting the vulnerable, etc.