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If it's a mistake, it's a charitable one. Picking log utility is at least somewhat principled, trying to lead almost surely to higher wealth is way more arbitra
by murbard2 5y ago
If it's a mistake, it's a charitable one. Picking log utility is at least somewhat principled, trying to lead almost surely to higher wealth is way more arbitrary.
- concreteblock 5y agoWhat exactly do you find arbitrary about this? When gambling or investing, more wealth is better than less wealth. 'Almost surely' is a technical term which means 'with probability 1'.
- murbard2 5y agoAt no point in time does Kelly give you more wealth with probability 1, and there is no reason to care about "more wealth with high probability", that's not even a transitive comparison function.
- concreteblock 5y ago> At no point in time does Kelly give you more wealth with probability 1, Either you're claiming that the theorem I attempted to describe is false, or you're misunderstanding the theorem I am trying to describe. I never wrote anything about 'high probability' either so I don't know why you introduced that notion.