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It's well worth implementing and testing out the Kelly Criterion. It's super simple to code up in a Jupyter Notebook so that you get to enter an amount to bet e
by YossarianFrPrez 5y ago
It's well worth implementing and testing out the Kelly Criterion. It's super simple to code up in a Jupyter Notebook so that you get to enter an amount to bet each time. When I tried it, I found my own psychology changing as the bets continued, even when I knew the coin's bias. It's a really great demonstration of the difference between a) intellectually knowing the optimal strategy, and b) what actually happens.
A bet on a biased coin paradigm was actually tried in the real world with finance professionals, with a cap on the maximum payout. The results are described here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1701.01427.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1701.01427.pdf
It's pretty interesting. (Note though that the "average returns" reported hide a lot of variation.)
- kheyasdev 5y agoCould you share a link to the notebook? I think it would benefit everyone to learn about this by applying the criterion.
- kqr 5y agoIt's also worth (I think!) exploring how it generalises past sequences of discrete 0--1 outcomes. There are horse race situations (what Kelly originally modeled), portfolio selection, half-Kelly type strategies in various spaces, and plenty more.