5 ms·

Right, while you wave your magic wand to try and accomplish that, the world will keep using oil. Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition n

by eloff 5y ago

Right, while you wave your magic wand to try and accomplish that, the world will keep using oil. Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition not a switch we can flip.

munk-a 5y ago
I think that economies are stubborn beasts, if they can avoid change they will. I don't think it's reasonable to expect any sort of energy transition to occur gracefully while oil is in supply. As the price goes up we'll see some industries priced out and over time we'll see early adopters convert but we're not going to see a smooth transition for the populace at large.
- acdha 5y ago
  It really depends on what “at large” you mean and the timing. If we passed a carbon tax and told everyone that oil will never be cheaper than it is now the phase-out would be relatively smooth: people would buy smaller, fuel efficient vehicles and EVs; there’d be more carpooling and combined trips; and people would be quicker to use transit or remote work. The same is true for home heating, various trades using equipment like lawnmowers, etc. — make a clear promise and do so across the board so people have the incentive to make capital investments. The problem there is if you need to do it quickly: if the SUV/truck trend hadn’t caught on, for example, fleet economy wouldn’t have reversed the improvements we saw in the 80s and early 90s. The longer we wait, the harder that gradual transition will be.
SECProto 5y ago
> Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition not a switch we can flip. And trains lend themselves much better to slow declining transition than a new pipeline. Can be used for other cargo; are a bit more expensive so they are a mild financial disincentive; the contaminated material (tanker cars) are by definition mobile and therefore easier to deal with at EOL.

5 ms·

Right, while you wave your magic wand to try and accomplish that, the world will keep using oil. Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition n

by eloff 5y ago

Right, while you wave your magic wand to try and accomplish that, the world will keep using oil. Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition not a switch we can flip.

munk-a 5y ago
I think that economies are stubborn beasts, if they can avoid change they will. I don't think it's reasonable to expect any sort of energy transition to occur gracefully while oil is in supply. As the price goes up we'll see some industries priced out and over time we'll see early adopters convert but we're not going to see a smooth transition for the populace at large.
- acdha 5y ago
  It really depends on what “at large” you mean and the timing. If we passed a carbon tax and told everyone that oil will never be cheaper than it is now the phase-out would be relatively smooth: people would buy smaller, fuel efficient vehicles and EVs; there’d be more carpooling and combined trips; and people would be quicker to use transit or remote work. The same is true for home heating, various trades using equipment like lawnmowers, etc. — make a clear promise and do so across the board so people have the incentive to make capital investments. The problem there is if you need to do it quickly: if the SUV/truck trend hadn’t caught on, for example, fleet economy wouldn’t have reversed the improvements we saw in the 80s and early 90s. The longer we wait, the harder that gradual transition will be.
SECProto 5y ago
> Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition not a switch we can flip. And trains lend themselves much better to slow declining transition than a new pipeline. Can be used for other cargo; are a bit more expensive so they are a mild financial disincentive; the contaminated material (tanker cars) are by definition mobile and therefore easier to deal with at EOL.