3 ms·
I believe it's come into fashion again with the rise of legal sportsbook in the US (DraftKings, etc). Particulaly, with the fascination over long shot "parlays"
by ArtWomb 5y ago
I believe it's come into fashion again with the rise of legal sportsbook in the US (DraftKings, etc). Particulaly, with the fascination over long shot "parlays" or chain bets that can achieve very high payouts with very little outlays. Better odds than buying a lottery ticket by far, or so it is perceived.
I think you have to have a few jokers short of a full deck to get into sports gaming and expect any outcome other than ruin. But the parlays are interesting. And the simplicity one could devise a winning strategy is enticing.
Consider a typical NBA season: 120 game nights, about 8 games per night. Let's say you constructed a parlay strategy in which you pick the under to hit on every game played that night. If the payout is large, say $1000 for a $3 bet. That's $360 for the season risk. And a high probability that eventually it'll cash ;)
- confidantlake 5y agoIf the odds of an under happening is 50% then that is indeed a great bet! The odds of winning would be (0.5)^8 or 1 in 256. So the EV of the bet would be E(x) = (1/256 * 1000) - (255/256 * 3) E(x) = .91796875 So you are expected to make nearly 92 cents on every 3 dollars bet. Over a 30% return! Any bookie offering these odds would quickly go broke.
- nly 5y agoIn practice they'd simply flag you as a sharp and ban your account before you made them broke