> We tend to judge the likelihood and significance of things based on how easily they come to mind Consequently: > We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely

> We tend to judge the likelihood and significance of things based on how easily they come to mind Consequently: > We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely events. And we underestimate the likelihood of likely events How to stop doing that: > #1. Always consider base rates when making judgments about probability. > #2. Focus on trends and patterns. > #3. Take the time to think before making a judgment. > #4. Keep track of information you might need to use in a judgment far off in the future. > #5. Go back and revisit old information.