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I don't really agree. Japan has had very easy money and QE for ten years longer than the West. Yet, it's one of the few housing markets in the world where price

I don't really agree. Japan has had very easy money and QE for ten years longer than the West. Yet, it's one of the few housing markets in the world where prices have not risen in 25 years.[1] Runaway housing costs are everywhere and always a phenomenon that results supply constraints. Usually entirely zoning/regulatory driven. Usually due to NIMBY activism. Given supply constraints, I agree that easy money probably does drive up prices. But without artificial constraints, any rise in price would just dissipate back into higher supplies. That's why you see QE result in higher housing costs, but not higher car prices. [1]https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-housing-crisis-in-japan-home-prices-stay-flat-11554210002 https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-housing-crisis-in-japan-ho...

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Japan's population is declining. What's your point? Why would you expect house prices to go up when there's a ridiculous oversupply of housing. There's only 55M households in Japan, and there's ~9M vacant homes. That's ~14% of homes. Housing is an expense unless there's someone to live in it and pay rent.
- dcolkitt 5y ago
  Tokyo is growing faster than New York, London, or most other major Western metros.[1] (It's true Japan as a whole has slow growth, but Tokyo still has robust growth because or rural to urban migration.) Yet real housing prices have not risen in Tokyo in 25 years. [1]https://livejapan.com/en/in-tokyo/in-pref-tokyo/in-tokyo_suburbs/article-a0002533/ https://livejapan.com/en/in-tokyo/in-pref-tokyo/in-tokyo_sub...
  - onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
    Tokyo had THE BIGGEST property bubble in the history of the world 30 years ago: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble It arguably has STILL not deflated. At one point, the Emperor's Palace alone was worth more than all the real estate in California: https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/3091222/japan-1980s-when-tokyos-imperial-palace-was-worth-more https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/309... I guess if you believe those valuations made sense, then sure.
    - presentation 5y ago
      Even so, normal people can and do buy property in close proximity to the city center all the time, and cheap rent spots are easy to come by. Minato-ku was definitely crazy overspeculated, but go 15 minutes away by train and you get an order of magnitude cheaper housing.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

Japan's population is declining. What's your point? Why would you expect house prices to go up when there's a ridiculous oversupply of housing. There's only 55M households in Japan, and there's ~9M vacant homes. That's ~14% of homes. Housing is an expense unless there's someone to live in it and pay rent.

dcolkitt 5y ago
Tokyo is growing faster than New York, London, or most other major Western metros.[1] (It's true Japan as a whole has slow growth, but Tokyo still has robust growth because or rural to urban migration.) Yet real housing prices have not risen in Tokyo in 25 years. [1]https://livejapan.com/en/in-tokyo/in-pref-tokyo/in-tokyo_suburbs/article-a0002533/ https://livejapan.com/en/in-tokyo/in-pref-tokyo/in-tokyo_sub...
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  Tokyo had THE BIGGEST property bubble in the history of the world 30 years ago: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble It arguably has STILL not deflated. At one point, the Emperor's Palace alone was worth more than all the real estate in California: https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/3091222/japan-1980s-when-tokyos-imperial-palace-was-worth-more https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/309... I guess if you believe those valuations made sense, then sure.
  - presentation 5y ago
    Even so, normal people can and do buy property in close proximity to the city center all the time, and cheap rent spots are easy to come by. Minato-ku was definitely crazy overspeculated, but go 15 minutes away by train and you get an order of magnitude cheaper housing.