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I completely disagree. Luck is important, but something that nobody, with any credible certainty, can put a meaningful number on. Just machine-gunning web apps
by dkrich 15y ago
I completely disagree. Luck is important, but something that nobody, with any credible certainty, can put a meaningful number on. Just machine-gunning web apps and smartphone applications into the market until one gets enough traction to earn $1000 is a way to almost guarantee that none ever will.
I would argue that for almost any entrepreneurial venture in the software space, odds calculations, and attempting to put forth something with any semblance of prediction beyond a few weeks post-launch is a waste of time.
- WalterSear 15y agoYou are doing risk management wrong. To launch a business without determining what a reasonable (or rather, survivale) concept of success would be, without examining your environment to give you at least an order-of-magnitude conception of your the frequency of return on investment you can expect, and determining whether your business model can survive long enough to be self-perpetuating isn't foolhardy: it's stupid. It doesn't take rocket science skill to be realistic, and to anticipate known unknowns. You don't even need the complicated parts of excel.