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That is not the whole story. Domestically in Russia, there is a sense of humiliation about losing the cold war and about the 90s. Going from a superpower to a d

That is not the whole story. Domestically in Russia, there is a sense of humiliation about losing the cold war and about the 90s. Going from a superpower to a destitute nation, being made to feel sorry for its own history. The rhetoric of rebuilding its sphere of influence, role in international affairs, regaining its 'colonies' as much as possible is very profitable domestically. As such, it is natural that such former satellite states would wish to protect themselves, i.e. by joining NATO and closer integrating with the EU. In other words, it seems likely that Russia's foreign policy would be very similar even without NATO expansion. One could argue it would be less aggressive because they would not feel a need to hurry, or more aggressive because they would feel less resistance to their actions. But the general policy trends would likely be very similar.

gdy 5y ago
"Domestically in Russia, there is a sense of humiliation about losing the cold war and about the 90s." Perhaps to some extent. The reason for that is that the US took advantage of Russia's weakness in the 90s[0]. There was a lot of admiration for the US in Russia[1], 80% view it positively. Eltsin and Putin were talking about Russia joining NATO[2][3] and a free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok [4]. People in Russia thought they shook of communism, adopted democracy and market economy and were joining happy European family. They were told they don't belong -- most importantly excluded from the common security system. That didn't go too well in a country that remembers that the USSR 50 years before lost 26 million people in an invasion from the West. "The rhetoric of rebuilding its sphere of influence, role in international affairs, regaining its 'colonies' as much as possible is very profitable domestically." Where did you get that idea? People in Russia want the government to spend money on improving life standards. "it seems likely that Russia's foreign policy would be very similar even without NATO expansion" There is no reason to think so. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-is-the-bully-the-united-states-has-treated-russia-like-a-loser-since-the-cold-war/2014/03/14/b0868882-aa06-11e3-8599-ce7295b6851c_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-is-the-bully-the... [1] https://www.ridl.io/en/russians-changing-attitudes-to-the-usa/ https://www.ridl.io/en/russians-changing-attitudes-to-the-us... [2] https://www.latimes.com/la-oe-meier20-2008aug20-story.html https://www.latimes.com/la-oe-meier20-2008aug20-story.html [3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/17/russia.iantraynor https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/17/russia.iantray... [4] https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/from-lisbon-to-vladivostok-putin-envisions-a-russia-eu-free-trade-zone-a-731109.html https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/from-lisbon-to-v...

gdy 5y ago

"Domestically in Russia, there is a sense of humiliation about losing the cold war and about the 90s." Perhaps to some extent. The reason for that is that the US took advantage of Russia's weakness in the 90s[0]. There was a lot of admiration for the US in Russia[1], 80% view it positively. Eltsin and Putin were talking about Russia joining NATO[2][3] and a free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok [4]. People in Russia thought they shook of communism, adopted democracy and market economy and were joining happy European family. They were told they don't belong -- most importantly excluded from the common security system. That didn't go too well in a country that remembers that the USSR 50 years before lost 26 million people in an invasion from the West. "The rhetoric of rebuilding its sphere of influence, role in international affairs, regaining its 'colonies' as much as possible is very profitable domestically." Where did you get that idea? People in Russia want the government to spend money on improving life standards. "it seems likely that Russia's foreign policy would be very similar even without NATO expansion" There is no reason to think so. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-is-the-bully-the-united-states-has-treated-russia-like-a-loser-since-the-cold-war/2014/03/14/b0868882-aa06-11e3-8599-ce7295b6851c_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-is-the-bully-the... [1] https://www.ridl.io/en/russians-changing-attitudes-to-the-usa/ https://www.ridl.io/en/russians-changing-attitudes-to-the-us... [2] https://www.latimes.com/la-oe-meier20-2008aug20-story.html https://www.latimes.com/la-oe-meier20-2008aug20-story.html [3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/17/russia.iantraynor https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jun/17/russia.iantray... [4] https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/from-lisbon-to-vladivostok-putin-envisions-a-russia-eu-free-trade-zone-a-731109.html https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/from-lisbon-to-v...