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In terms of inflation, this is a very thoughtful piece shared recently on HN: https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/ https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/ She talks
by cko 5y ago
In terms of inflation, this is a very thoughtful piece shared recently on HN: https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/ https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/
She talks about the difference between broad money and base money supply.
In terms of stock prices, going by CAPE ratio, US domestic stocks are at dotcom bubble valuations. But there are other markets outside the US that have underperformed this past decade that may be 'reasonably priced'.
Based on that metric, plus the prospect of lower corporate profit margins going forward, people like Bogle and Dalio expect lower US market returns this decade, more like 3-5% IRC.
There could be stagflation, inflation, it's anybody's guess. In developed markets there are many deflationary headwinds like demographic trends and innovations in tech.
I don't know anything about crypto valuations, besides the irrational FOMO I feel when I think about them.
- 01100011 5y agoThere's also the Buffet Indicator, which is sky high: https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica... But as that site points out, maybe it's not so bad when you take the low interest rate environment into account: https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/10y-interest-rates.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/10y-interest-r...
- cyberge99 5y agoShe just put out a great tweet tonight about meme stocks and their effect on the markets.
- cko 5y agoShe's great. I'm sad I only heard about her recently. Really level-headed analysis.
- mszcz 5y agoSeconded. She puts out so much good content and thoughtful analysis.
- Xavdidtheshadow 5y agoDo you have a link to that tweet?