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Eventually that will correct though, stocks and real estate prices can't continue doubling if it's not backed by real fundamentals. Especially with remote work,

Eventually that will correct though, stocks and real estate prices can't continue doubling if it's not backed by real fundamentals. Especially with remote work, nobody is going to buy a 1 bedroom city flat for 300k when you can get 3 bedrooms for cheaper out in the countryside.

jaimex2 5y ago
It's hard to say, finances and governments are smoke and mirrors. There are so many moving parts right now no one can really know. Experts in finance have been extremely wrong multiple times in this pandemic. I agree with you it should all come crashing down because the foundations seem rotten but I've been around long enough to know some amazing financial gymnastics often get pulled off by those in power.
newman8r 5y ago
I've been waiting for this 'exodus to the countryside' for a while, maybe this is the catalyst. Photovoltaic is becoming practical, work from home is the future, starlink getting better every month. New building methods, tiny homes, making deserts arable. Anything can be delivered, even to many rural locations. I've been thinking about putting a group of people together who are interested in discussing the prospect of an experimental off-grid tech collaboration in Southern California or the Sierras. Anyone who's interested, feel free to email.
- Maakuth 5y ago
  Here in Finland there's a ton of housing stock in the countryside, vacated by the urbanization. All of these houses are connected to the electric grid. There would be a lot of unused capacity to fill before needing to go off-grid. Even if you wanted a large property far away from anyone else, there's a number of old farms to pick from.
  - newman8r 5y ago
    That's interesting, are they relatively affordable? Farmland in the US is not cheap at all, at least everywhere I've looked at.
    - Maakuth 5y ago
      I think a key difference is that traditionally average farms have been quite small in here, just a few hectares. So a farm with old buildings and small field area would definitely be very affordable. If you'd want to acquire farm for _farming_, then you would need to go orders of magnitude bigger and that would be costly. If solitude is what you're looking for, keep in mind basically all of these are surrounded by forests. So even having a relatively small property does not mean you'd be living next to some people.
      - euroderf 5y ago
        In any case you're likely to have plenty of space for lots of photovoltaic that could earn money from the grid. But in Finland the demand for electricity is highest in winter, not summer, isn't it? So how could you deploy lots of PV AND keep it free of snow? Of course in winter the sun is pretty low in the sky so maybe the key would be to (a) keep it quite vertical (helping keep it snow-free), and (b) keep it rotating to follow the sun. But then of course clouds, overcast, and shortness of day become the main issue. Oh well.
        Maakuth 5y ago
        Sure, power usage and price are the highest during winter, though PV panels are already cheap enough that you can profitably setup them in Finland too. Going off-grid with solar is not an option around the year though. I actually did get myself a 10kWp on-grid plant one month ago. I'm not planning to touch it during winter. The day during winter is so short that it doesn't make sense to take any risks, for example to climb on the roof to clean the panels. Even if you could do it without personal risk, the chance of damaging the panels is non-zero, so the expected value of this activity is very low. It could make sense to install some vertical panels facing south, those would capture a bit of energy even in the winter. But the rotation mechanisms are a waste unless you're area constrained, just add more panels with the same money and the ROI will be better.
- 01100011 5y ago
  I think that occasionally, but then I talk to young people and realize people like stuff like restaurants, entertainment, travel, etc. Sure, some people are coming out of the pandemic realizing they're hermits(myself included), but even more people are coming out remembering how much they like malls, sporting events, nightlife, etc. I have no doubt that a significant portion of city dwellers will flee to the country, and that a good portion of that might even stay, but the cities will keep on thriving. If nothing else, you can't beat the efficiency and wealth generating capacity of the cities in the long term. Want your kids and the country they live in to be able to compete on the world stage? You're going to be drawn to the cities, even if you only make it as far as a suburb.
  - Layke1123 5y ago
    Ahh compete instead of cooperate. The single dumbest idea that is still perpetuated to this day.
  - newman8r 5y ago
    True, and even if only a small percentage of people leave it could reduce housing costs in the cities.
onion2k 5y ago
House prices don't operate on simple supply and demand principles. This is a very good article that explains why - https://alastairparvin.medium.com/if-the-uk-built-1-million-homes-what-would-happen-to-house-prices-de1fbffa9235 https://alastairparvin.medium.com/if-the-uk-built-1-million-...
antoniuschan99 5y ago
In the meantime a large number of real is estate is being taken by corporations

jaimex2 5y ago

It's hard to say, finances and governments are smoke and mirrors. There are so many moving parts right now no one can really know. Experts in finance have been extremely wrong multiple times in this pandemic. I agree with you it should all come crashing down because the foundations seem rotten but I've been around long enough to know some amazing financial gymnastics often get pulled off by those in power.

newman8r 5y ago

I've been waiting for this 'exodus to the countryside' for a while, maybe this is the catalyst. Photovoltaic is becoming practical, work from home is the future, starlink getting better every month. New building methods, tiny homes, making deserts arable. Anything can be delivered, even to many rural locations. I've been thinking about putting a group of people together who are interested in discussing the prospect of an experimental off-grid tech collaboration in Southern California or the Sierras. Anyone who's interested, feel free to email.

Maakuth 5y ago
Here in Finland there's a ton of housing stock in the countryside, vacated by the urbanization. All of these houses are connected to the electric grid. There would be a lot of unused capacity to fill before needing to go off-grid. Even if you wanted a large property far away from anyone else, there's a number of old farms to pick from.
- newman8r 5y ago
  That's interesting, are they relatively affordable? Farmland in the US is not cheap at all, at least everywhere I've looked at.
  - Maakuth 5y ago
    I think a key difference is that traditionally average farms have been quite small in here, just a few hectares. So a farm with old buildings and small field area would definitely be very affordable. If you'd want to acquire farm for _farming_, then you would need to go orders of magnitude bigger and that would be costly. If solitude is what you're looking for, keep in mind basically all of these are surrounded by forests. So even having a relatively small property does not mean you'd be living next to some people.
    - euroderf 5y ago
      In any case you're likely to have plenty of space for lots of photovoltaic that could earn money from the grid. But in Finland the demand for electricity is highest in winter, not summer, isn't it? So how could you deploy lots of PV AND keep it free of snow? Of course in winter the sun is pretty low in the sky so maybe the key would be to (a) keep it quite vertical (helping keep it snow-free), and (b) keep it rotating to follow the sun. But then of course clouds, overcast, and shortness of day become the main issue. Oh well.
      - Maakuth 5y ago
        Sure, power usage and price are the highest during winter, though PV panels are already cheap enough that you can profitably setup them in Finland too. Going off-grid with solar is not an option around the year though. I actually did get myself a 10kWp on-grid plant one month ago. I'm not planning to touch it during winter. The day during winter is so short that it doesn't make sense to take any risks, for example to climb on the roof to clean the panels. Even if you could do it without personal risk, the chance of damaging the panels is non-zero, so the expected value of this activity is very low. It could make sense to install some vertical panels facing south, those would capture a bit of energy even in the winter. But the rotation mechanisms are a waste unless you're area constrained, just add more panels with the same money and the ROI will be better.
01100011 5y ago
I think that occasionally, but then I talk to young people and realize people like stuff like restaurants, entertainment, travel, etc. Sure, some people are coming out of the pandemic realizing they're hermits(myself included), but even more people are coming out remembering how much they like malls, sporting events, nightlife, etc. I have no doubt that a significant portion of city dwellers will flee to the country, and that a good portion of that might even stay, but the cities will keep on thriving. If nothing else, you can't beat the efficiency and wealth generating capacity of the cities in the long term. Want your kids and the country they live in to be able to compete on the world stage? You're going to be drawn to the cities, even if you only make it as far as a suburb.
- Layke1123 5y ago
  Ahh compete instead of cooperate. The single dumbest idea that is still perpetuated to this day.
- newman8r 5y ago
  True, and even if only a small percentage of people leave it could reduce housing costs in the cities.

onion2k 5y ago

House prices don't operate on simple supply and demand principles. This is a very good article that explains why - https://alastairparvin.medium.com/if-the-uk-built-1-million-homes-what-would-happen-to-house-prices-de1fbffa9235 https://alastairparvin.medium.com/if-the-uk-built-1-million-...

antoniuschan99 5y ago

In the meantime a large number of real is estate is being taken by corporations