4 ms·

Not really luck, most of the western world realizes that having most of the world's chip capacity reside within the zone of control of a repressive regime with

Not really luck, most of the western world realizes that having most of the world's chip capacity reside within the zone of control of a repressive regime with incompatible political and humanitarian values is not a good long term scenario. They have planned accordingly.

sct202 5y ago
Times can change quickly and unpredictably. It was not too long ago that Dresden, where this plant is located, was under the oppressive East German regime.
- developer93 5y ago
  Dunno I wouldn't call 32 years all that recent either
  - goodcanadian 5y ago
    As my grandmother once said (sometime around her 85th birthday), "You know, in school, in history class, 100 years seems like a long time. It's not really."
    - bobthechef 5y ago
      As the adage goes, the Church thinks in centuries. Who remembers the Arian crisis today? Things seem bad now? Wait a century or two.
  - lb1lf 5y ago
    Reporter: "What do you think the long-term consequences of the French Revolution will be?" Zhou Enlai: "I believe it is too early to tell." (This quote, while authentic, is too good to be true - the quote harks from 1972, and in context it is evident they are discussing the 1968 student unrest, not the 1789 revolution. Still...)
    - bobthechef 5y ago
      Indeed, takes a while for these things to unfold. For example, what we're seeing today is the result of the unfolding of the liberal program initiated centuries earlier. However, not only is taking time to unfold different from predictability, but specific predictions are not the same as general predictions. It isn't always impossible to make good general predictions. For example, some papal encyclicals have predicted with spot on accuracy the general character of how things will develop long before they did if certain things aren't sorted out. These sorts of predictions, in part, benefit from concerning the unfolding of philosophical (and theological) beliefs, beliefs which contains within themselves their own logical entailments. So these encyclicals weren't predicting particularities like "what will be the stock price of Amazon in 2030" or "who will win the presidency in 2030 and will this president like ham", but rather the general prevailing conditions, attitudes, etc. characterizing future generations and the resulting social order, for example.
- flohofwoe 5y ago
  Important to note though that Dresden was already the semiconductor "hotspot" of East Germany (along with Carl Zeiss in Jena which produced the manufacturing equipment). AMD also had a fab until around 2008 in Dresden.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
    The fab is still there. Just not AMDs anymore, but Global Foundries instead.
emodendroket 5y ago
Hm, have they though. It seems like they're awfully reliant on TSMC still. And at least some of our planners probably like the tripwire aspect of it because it bolsters Taiwan's geopolitical importance.
- gnu8 5y ago
  1) China rattles the sabre until everyone is uncomfortable with the world depending on TSMC, increasing economic uncertainty 2) Other countries build chip foundries to capitalize on the uncertainty 3) The risk of China provoking world war by reclaiming control over Taiwan reduces to an acceptable level, and they take over 4) No one cares because the supply of iPhones and Alexas is not disrupted
  - tibbydudeza 5y ago
    4D Chess moves.
  - ineedasername 5y ago
    I don't doubt they will see that as a sort of consolation prize, but world discomfort isn't just with chip fabs. I don't think China would deliberately allow this course of action only for Taiwan. That's not much to get in exchange for being the power of being world's industrial bottle neck. My guess is that they see this sort of diversification from reliance on China as inevitable. They resist it of course (see 5G equipment in Europe) but their investments throughout the rest of the world paint a picture of supporting developing nations economically to the point that as they grow & prosper, they grow into client states of China.
- hulitu 5y ago
  > Hm, have they though. It seems like they're awfully reliant on TSMC still. Well just for your information, they are not. The so called chip shortage is because a Renesas factory which produces microcontrollers burned down. To put this into perspective is like Intel using one of his fabs: you have the motherboard but no processor. Usually changing a component is no big deal but in this case is like a complete redesign. So i do not see any link here between Bosch and TSMC.( except that they both make "chips").

sct202 5y ago

Times can change quickly and unpredictably. It was not too long ago that Dresden, where this plant is located, was under the oppressive East German regime.

developer93 5y ago
Dunno I wouldn't call 32 years all that recent either
- goodcanadian 5y ago
  As my grandmother once said (sometime around her 85th birthday), "You know, in school, in history class, 100 years seems like a long time. It's not really."
  - bobthechef 5y ago
    As the adage goes, the Church thinks in centuries. Who remembers the Arian crisis today? Things seem bad now? Wait a century or two.
- lb1lf 5y ago
  Reporter: "What do you think the long-term consequences of the French Revolution will be?" Zhou Enlai: "I believe it is too early to tell." (This quote, while authentic, is too good to be true - the quote harks from 1972, and in context it is evident they are discussing the 1968 student unrest, not the 1789 revolution. Still...)
  - bobthechef 5y ago
    Indeed, takes a while for these things to unfold. For example, what we're seeing today is the result of the unfolding of the liberal program initiated centuries earlier. However, not only is taking time to unfold different from predictability, but specific predictions are not the same as general predictions. It isn't always impossible to make good general predictions. For example, some papal encyclicals have predicted with spot on accuracy the general character of how things will develop long before they did if certain things aren't sorted out. These sorts of predictions, in part, benefit from concerning the unfolding of philosophical (and theological) beliefs, beliefs which contains within themselves their own logical entailments. So these encyclicals weren't predicting particularities like "what will be the stock price of Amazon in 2030" or "who will win the presidency in 2030 and will this president like ham", but rather the general prevailing conditions, attitudes, etc. characterizing future generations and the resulting social order, for example.
flohofwoe 5y ago
Important to note though that Dresden was already the semiconductor "hotspot" of East Germany (along with Carl Zeiss in Jena which produced the manufacturing equipment). AMD also had a fab until around 2008 in Dresden.
- LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
  The fab is still there. Just not AMDs anymore, but Global Foundries instead.

emodendroket 5y ago

Hm, have they though. It seems like they're awfully reliant on TSMC still. And at least some of our planners probably like the tripwire aspect of it because it bolsters Taiwan's geopolitical importance.

gnu8 5y ago
1) China rattles the sabre until everyone is uncomfortable with the world depending on TSMC, increasing economic uncertainty 2) Other countries build chip foundries to capitalize on the uncertainty 3) The risk of China provoking world war by reclaiming control over Taiwan reduces to an acceptable level, and they take over 4) No one cares because the supply of iPhones and Alexas is not disrupted
- tibbydudeza 5y ago
  4D Chess moves.
- ineedasername 5y ago
  I don't doubt they will see that as a sort of consolation prize, but world discomfort isn't just with chip fabs. I don't think China would deliberately allow this course of action only for Taiwan. That's not much to get in exchange for being the power of being world's industrial bottle neck. My guess is that they see this sort of diversification from reliance on China as inevitable. They resist it of course (see 5G equipment in Europe) but their investments throughout the rest of the world paint a picture of supporting developing nations economically to the point that as they grow & prosper, they grow into client states of China.
hulitu 5y ago
> Hm, have they though. It seems like they're awfully reliant on TSMC still. Well just for your information, they are not. The so called chip shortage is because a Renesas factory which produces microcontrollers burned down. To put this into perspective is like Intel using one of his fabs: you have the motherboard but no processor. Usually changing a component is no big deal but in this case is like a complete redesign. So i do not see any link here between Bosch and TSMC.( except that they both make "chips").