3 ms·

Great point! To be fair, my audience is mostly the tech types (hence the post to HN), so I expect that those reading this are not the type to leave and become u

Great point! To be fair, my audience is mostly the tech types (hence the post to HN), so I expect that those reading this are not the type to leave and become unemployed actors, but very important nonetheless.

WalterSear 15y ago
I agree that the skills and mindset of this forum is certainly a cut above most. But that doesn't mean that it's not full of irrational, wishful thinkers. You know: human beings :) I do, however, have a second objection - it's not enough to enjoy what you do, and be good at what you do - you also have to be lucky. Good thing that being lucky is a skill. "...Newbie drinkers of the 4-hour Kool-Aid don’t seem to get this. They think lifestyle design is a guaranteed path out of their crappy lives in cubicle prisons and the burden of the middle-class life script, mortgage and all. A question I recently answered on Quora very clearly reveals the mental model many people have: Is it hard to build, market and maintain a web app that makes at least $1000 a month? ... You can tell an engineer asked this question even without reading further, because the question asks about how hard the work is. The gambler/marketer version of such questions is always how lucky do you have to be? The engineer asks about effort. The gambler/marketer asks about odds, and picks the game with the most favorable odds that he can find. 2/3 is better than 1/2. If I’d asked the question, I’d have phrased it as: how many apps do you have to publish in order to be fairly sure of having at least one hit that makes $1000 or more a month?" http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2011/06/02/the-las-vegas-rules-i-the-slightly-malevolent-universe/ http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2011/06/02/the-las-vegas-rules-i-t... In other words, perseverance and risk management are essential skills - ones that few people seek serious training and practice in, rather than lip service. A bad job will kill you, but poor risk management will do it faster. People don't just need to hear that making the jump is good - they need to know what to expect when they do, and how to plan accordingly.
- dkrich 15y ago
  I completely disagree. Luck is important, but something that nobody, with any credible certainty, can put a meaningful number on. Just machine-gunning web apps and smartphone applications into the market until one gets enough traction to earn $1000 is a way to almost guarantee that none ever will. I would argue that for almost any entrepreneurial venture in the software space, odds calculations, and attempting to put forth something with any semblance of prediction beyond a few weeks post-launch is a waste of time.
  - WalterSear 15y ago
    You are doing risk management wrong. To launch a business without determining what a reasonable (or rather, survivale) concept of success would be, without examining your environment to give you at least an order-of-magnitude conception of your the frequency of return on investment you can expect, and determining whether your business model can survive long enough to be self-perpetuating isn't foolhardy: it's stupid. It doesn't take rocket science skill to be realistic, and to anticipate known unknowns. You don't even need the complicated parts of excel.

WalterSear 15y ago

I agree that the skills and mindset of this forum is certainly a cut above most. But that doesn't mean that it's not full of irrational, wishful thinkers. You know: human beings :) I do, however, have a second objection - it's not enough to enjoy what you do, and be good at what you do - you also have to be lucky. Good thing that being lucky is a skill. "...Newbie drinkers of the 4-hour Kool-Aid don’t seem to get this. They think lifestyle design is a guaranteed path out of their crappy lives in cubicle prisons and the burden of the middle-class life script, mortgage and all. A question I recently answered on Quora very clearly reveals the mental model many people have: Is it hard to build, market and maintain a web app that makes at least $1000 a month? ... You can tell an engineer asked this question even without reading further, because the question asks about how hard the work is. The gambler/marketer version of such questions is always how lucky do you have to be? The engineer asks about effort. The gambler/marketer asks about odds, and picks the game with the most favorable odds that he can find. 2/3 is better than 1/2. If I’d asked the question, I’d have phrased it as: how many apps do you have to publish in order to be fairly sure of having at least one hit that makes $1000 or more a month?" http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2011/06/02/the-las-vegas-rules-i-the-slightly-malevolent-universe/ http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2011/06/02/the-las-vegas-rules-i-t... In other words, perseverance and risk management are essential skills - ones that few people seek serious training and practice in, rather than lip service. A bad job will kill you, but poor risk management will do it faster. People don't just need to hear that making the jump is good - they need to know what to expect when they do, and how to plan accordingly.

dkrich 15y ago
I completely disagree. Luck is important, but something that nobody, with any credible certainty, can put a meaningful number on. Just machine-gunning web apps and smartphone applications into the market until one gets enough traction to earn $1000 is a way to almost guarantee that none ever will. I would argue that for almost any entrepreneurial venture in the software space, odds calculations, and attempting to put forth something with any semblance of prediction beyond a few weeks post-launch is a waste of time.
- WalterSear 15y ago
  You are doing risk management wrong. To launch a business without determining what a reasonable (or rather, survivale) concept of success would be, without examining your environment to give you at least an order-of-magnitude conception of your the frequency of return on investment you can expect, and determining whether your business model can survive long enough to be self-perpetuating isn't foolhardy: it's stupid. It doesn't take rocket science skill to be realistic, and to anticipate known unknowns. You don't even need the complicated parts of excel.