4 ms·

In the article I can't find support for the thesis that food inflation has happened, or is happening.

icegreentea2 5y ago
It's not the best written article because while it opens with talking about slow moving systemic things (see the other comments/discussion in the thread linking to the actual UN FAO reports showing that their global food price index is infact up quite a lot over the last couple years), but the real HEART of the article is this one-two punch: 1) Famines (not the same thing as food inflation) are typically man-made, or CERTAINLY man amplified 2) While the biggest 20th century famine events can easily be laid at the feet of authoritarian governments, our current global system has capitalism playing a similar threat. I feel like the heart of this article is wrapped up in this paragraph: > The cartel of western farmers want to export their product as cheaply as possible, which opens them up to all sorts of Black Swan risks. When the music inevitably stops, the countries that were net-importers of these commodities take the hit while these massive cartels, many of whom are subsidized by their governments, can afford to do so and live another day. Now, of course the hilarious reason why western farmers (partly) have so much to export is because of food security incentives that their domestic governments have in place to ensure enough capacity in production to absorb various shocks. Which I felt that the author should have brought up.
- jfengel 5y ago
  If we made agriculture as efficient as the automotive production pipelines, hiccups like the chip shortage would literally end civilization. So, bonus. Unfortunately, when you stomp efficiency in one place, it'll tend to pop up somewhere else. Usually in the places without money, because they can't afford the luxury of inefficiency. That that makes them really, really susceptible to your point (1): they're vulnerable to anybody in power with their finger on the artery. It's aggravating, because we've got so much technology that we managed to get out ahead of the arithmetic/exponential conflicts that were reasonably predicted to cause serious hardship. We can feed 8 billion people. It's hateful that a relatively small number of people in just the right places can starve billions at once.
- occamrazor 5y ago
  Thanks for the detailed reply. and for drawing me towards the core claims. In fact point 2, which I believe is the main argument, after reading the article again, is at odds with the “inflation” hypothesis, at least if we define inflation as a long-term trend of increasing food prices. The systematic overproduction of agricultural product by rich countries for food security has actually kept global prices low, even with the increase in demand from population growth. The recent movements in the price index are not obviously part of a long term trend (and with all that passed in 2020-21 it will be difficult to distinguish what is a trend and what is a one-off shock). I would like to read an article that looks at these themes in more depth.
K0balt 5y ago
It’s in the jume report. Definitely seeing it in this developing nation, food prices across the board are un 10 to 50 percent ( I provisión a farm for 10 workers, and 8 families members so I have a consistent monthly purchasing pattern)
- Filligree 5y ago
  Can you link to this report? Google isn't being helpful.

It's not the best written article because while it opens with talking about slow moving systemic things (see the other comments/discussion in the thread linking to the actual UN FAO reports showing that their global food price index is infact up quite a lot over the last couple years), but the real HEART of the article is this one-two punch: 1) Famines (not the same thing as food inflation) are typically man-made, or CERTAINLY man amplified 2) While the biggest 20th century famine events can easily be laid at the feet of authoritarian governments, our current global system has capitalism playing a similar threat. I feel like the heart of this article is wrapped up in this paragraph: > The cartel of western farmers want to export their product as cheaply as possible, which opens them up to all sorts of Black Swan risks. When the music inevitably stops, the countries that were net-importers of these commodities take the hit while these massive cartels, many of whom are subsidized by their governments, can afford to do so and live another day. Now, of course the hilarious reason why western farmers (partly) have so much to export is because of food security incentives that their domestic governments have in place to ensure enough capacity in production to absorb various shocks. Which I felt that the author should have brought up.

jfengel 5y ago
If we made agriculture as efficient as the automotive production pipelines, hiccups like the chip shortage would literally end civilization. So, bonus. Unfortunately, when you stomp efficiency in one place, it'll tend to pop up somewhere else. Usually in the places without money, because they can't afford the luxury of inefficiency. That that makes them really, really susceptible to your point (1): they're vulnerable to anybody in power with their finger on the artery. It's aggravating, because we've got so much technology that we managed to get out ahead of the arithmetic/exponential conflicts that were reasonably predicted to cause serious hardship. We can feed 8 billion people. It's hateful that a relatively small number of people in just the right places can starve billions at once.
occamrazor 5y ago
Thanks for the detailed reply. and for drawing me towards the core claims. In fact point 2, which I believe is the main argument, after reading the article again, is at odds with the “inflation” hypothesis, at least if we define inflation as a long-term trend of increasing food prices. The systematic overproduction of agricultural product by rich countries for food security has actually kept global prices low, even with the increase in demand from population growth. The recent movements in the price index are not obviously part of a long term trend (and with all that passed in 2020-21 it will be difficult to distinguish what is a trend and what is a one-off shock). I would like to read an article that looks at these themes in more depth.

K0balt 5y ago

It’s in the jume report. Definitely seeing it in this developing nation, food prices across the board are un 10 to 50 percent ( I provisión a farm for 10 workers, and 8 families members so I have a consistent monthly purchasing pattern)

Filligree 5y ago
Can you link to this report? Google isn't being helpful.