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Comparatively, some of these hypothetical slot machines are less likey to kill you than others. But no location is truly safe, thus I contend they all have thre

Comparatively, some of these hypothetical slot machines are less likey to kill you than others. But no location is truly safe, thus I contend they all have three skulls waiting for someone. If a used laptop is enough of a reward to wager your life, I admire your courage, but when I think of it in financial terms, the thought gives me the heebie jeebies.

pavel_lishin 15y ago
In financial terms, she could not afford to buy a new one, and I'd wager that she couldn't complete her studies without it. I would have done the same thing, except I would bring more friends, at least some of whom would have professional photography rigs to get some nice snapshots of the thieves, as well as their car - assuming they arrived in one.
sedev 15y ago
In this scenario, I think that the 'three skulls' result was about as likely to come up getting in the car and driving to the public location as it was during the actual confrontation.
khafra 15y ago
I completely agree with all the other arguments you make here, which makes me re-evaluate my disagreement on this one. But I think my interpretation still holds up: In 2010, Ottawa saw 27,446 property crimes, and 14 homicides[1]. In general, about half of murders are committed by a friend or family member[2]. So even if the other 7 murderers _all_ started out doing petty theft, there's still only 1 in 3,920 laptop thieves who's going to kill someone. Now, as a high-falutin' tech blogger for whom laptops grow on trees, that still may be an unnacceptable risk/reward ratio for you. But if a laptop represented a more substantial investment, its value might begin to approach the value you personally would place on, say, 50 separate scuba dives. Which, at a death rate of 1 per 200,000 dives, is about where the risk evens out. [1]http://www.ottawapolice.ca//Libraries/Publications/2009_-_2010_Crime_Trends_for_the_City_of_Ottawa_resize_1.sflb.ashx http://www.ottawapolice.ca//Libraries/Publications/2009_-_20... [2]http://www.ncjrs.gov/ovc_archives/nvaa/ch16hom.htm http://www.ncjrs.gov/ovc_archives/nvaa/ch16hom.htm
- raganwald 15y ago
  In 2010, Ottawa saw 27,446 property crimes, and 14 homicides[1]. In general, about half of murders are committed by a friend or family member[2]. So even if the other 7 murderers _all_ started out doing petty theft, there's still only 1 in 3,920 laptop thieves who's going to kill someone. I appreciate what you're trying to say, and believe me when I say that if you consider the risks and want to go get your laptop, that's fine and I'm not arguing with you making your choice. However, the statistics you quote above do not support your quoted odds. Since the 27,446 reported property crimes did not all involve the owner confronting the thieves, we cannot use the numbers to draw a conclusion about the risk of a confrontation resulting in a murder, much less an attempted murder or assault. On the flip side, while I do not have statistics handy, deep diving, dry suit diving, cold water diving, decompression diving, mixed gas diving, drift diving, and other activities I have enjoyed of are thought to be associated with slightly higher risks than the overall statistics suggest, although not as high as the three big killers: Cave/wreck diving, rebreather diving, and commercial diving.

pavel_lishin 15y ago

In financial terms, she could not afford to buy a new one, and I'd wager that she couldn't complete her studies without it. I would have done the same thing, except I would bring more friends, at least some of whom would have professional photography rigs to get some nice snapshots of the thieves, as well as their car - assuming they arrived in one.

sedev 15y ago

In this scenario, I think that the 'three skulls' result was about as likely to come up getting in the car and driving to the public location as it was during the actual confrontation.

khafra 15y ago

I completely agree with all the other arguments you make here, which makes me re-evaluate my disagreement on this one. But I think my interpretation still holds up: In 2010, Ottawa saw 27,446 property crimes, and 14 homicides[1]. In general, about half of murders are committed by a friend or family member[2]. So even if the other 7 murderers _all_ started out doing petty theft, there's still only 1 in 3,920 laptop thieves who's going to kill someone. Now, as a high-falutin' tech blogger for whom laptops grow on trees, that still may be an unnacceptable risk/reward ratio for you. But if a laptop represented a more substantial investment, its value might begin to approach the value you personally would place on, say, 50 separate scuba dives. Which, at a death rate of 1 per 200,000 dives, is about where the risk evens out. [1]http://www.ottawapolice.ca//Libraries/Publications/2009_-_2010_Crime_Trends_for_the_City_of_Ottawa_resize_1.sflb.ashx http://www.ottawapolice.ca//Libraries/Publications/2009_-_20... [2]http://www.ncjrs.gov/ovc_archives/nvaa/ch16hom.htm http://www.ncjrs.gov/ovc_archives/nvaa/ch16hom.htm

raganwald 15y ago
In 2010, Ottawa saw 27,446 property crimes, and 14 homicides[1]. In general, about half of murders are committed by a friend or family member[2]. So even if the other 7 murderers _all_ started out doing petty theft, there's still only 1 in 3,920 laptop thieves who's going to kill someone. I appreciate what you're trying to say, and believe me when I say that if you consider the risks and want to go get your laptop, that's fine and I'm not arguing with you making your choice. However, the statistics you quote above do not support your quoted odds. Since the 27,446 reported property crimes did not all involve the owner confronting the thieves, we cannot use the numbers to draw a conclusion about the risk of a confrontation resulting in a murder, much less an attempted murder or assault. On the flip side, while I do not have statistics handy, deep diving, dry suit diving, cold water diving, decompression diving, mixed gas diving, drift diving, and other activities I have enjoyed of are thought to be associated with slightly higher risks than the overall statistics suggest, although not as high as the three big killers: Cave/wreck diving, rebreather diving, and commercial diving.