4 ms·
Not sure where everyone is getting their numbers but the failure rate for manned launches over the last 20 years is 0.8%. The percentage chance of death while
by mmmBacon 5y ago
Not sure where everyone is getting their numbers but the failure rate for manned launches over the last 20 years is 0.8%. The percentage chance of death while climbing Everest is around 1%. SpaceX’s Falcon has ~2% failure rate. Unmanned flight failure rates are considerably higher. So risks of manned flight look comparable to climbing Everest.
Sources:
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/logyear.html http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/logyear.html
Everest:
https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/08/26/mount-everest-summit-success-rates-double-death-rate-stays-the-same-over-last-30-years/ https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/08/26/mount-everest-sum...
SpaceX:
https://spacex-info.com/stats/ https://spacex-info.com/stats/
- JohnJamesRambo 5y agoCan you extrapolate all manned flight numbers (which are done by people with much more experience at it) to Blue Origin which has apparently only done 14 flights of New Shepard ever?
- Tepix 5y agoSpaceX has a 100% success rate for their manned flights.