3 ms·

That can’t be right. That would mean someone who drives a car every day would have a 5.4% chance of death yearly.

Thorrez 5y ago
It references this[1] which references this[2] which references this Kayaking paper[3] which says driving has a 152 fatality rate per million participant days if you assume 1 day = 100 miles. That references this[4] which says "The fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT)" is 1.52. If you assume 1 day = 100 miles, that means the fatality rate per 1 million days is 1.52. So there was a math error made in the Kayaking paper when they were doing unit conversion. They overestimated by 100x. That error then propagated to Wikidata. [1] https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q999646 https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q999646 [2] https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q35627590 https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q35627590 [3] https://www.wemjournal.org/article/S1080-6032(03)70564-X/pdf https://www.wemjournal.org/article/S1080-6032(03)70564-X/pdf [4] https://web.archive.org/web/20030323041203/https://www.nhtsa.gov/nhtsa/announce/press/pressdisplay.cfm?year=2002&filename=pr55-02.html https://web.archive.org/web/20030323041203/https://www.nhtsa...
- dhx 5y ago
  Thanks for the investigate work! No wonder I was surprised with the figures from the kayaking paper. I've updated Wikidata to deprecate the incorrect incidence rate from the kayaking paper, and replaced the incidence rate with more up-to-date data from the US BTS which puts it at 0.8 deaths per 100 million vehicle-miles in the US. Using the assumption from the kayaking paper of 100 miles/day being the average distance traveled by car, whitewater sports are therefore 7-8 times more likely to lead to death than traveling in a car. New query showing more accurate incidence of death rates: https://w.wiki/3Src https://w.wiki/3Src
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  >if you assume 1 day = 100 miles. Which is one hell of an assumption in case that wasn't obvious. Even people with absurd commutes tend to have less than 100mi/day weekly or annual averages unless they're doing the same thing on the weekends.
  - sgerenser 5y ago
    USDOT says average motorist drives 13,500 miles/year, or roughly 37 miles per day[0]. So divide by another factor of 3 to get a more realistic comparison of death rates between whitewater kayaking and driving. [0] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
foxes 5y ago
Cars are horrible, is it actually a surprise?

It references this[1] which references this[2] which references this Kayaking paper[3] which says driving has a 152 fatality rate per million participant days if you assume 1 day = 100 miles. That references this[4] which says "The fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT)" is 1.52. If you assume 1 day = 100 miles, that means the fatality rate per 1 million days is 1.52. So there was a math error made in the Kayaking paper when they were doing unit conversion. They overestimated by 100x. That error then propagated to Wikidata. [1] https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q999646 https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q999646 [2] https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q35627590 https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q35627590 [3] https://www.wemjournal.org/article/S1080-6032(03)70564-X/pdf https://www.wemjournal.org/article/S1080-6032(03)70564-X/pdf [4] https://web.archive.org/web/20030323041203/https://www.nhtsa.gov/nhtsa/announce/press/pressdisplay.cfm?year=2002&filename=pr55-02.html https://web.archive.org/web/20030323041203/https://www.nhtsa...

dhx 5y ago
Thanks for the investigate work! No wonder I was surprised with the figures from the kayaking paper. I've updated Wikidata to deprecate the incorrect incidence rate from the kayaking paper, and replaced the incidence rate with more up-to-date data from the US BTS which puts it at 0.8 deaths per 100 million vehicle-miles in the US. Using the assumption from the kayaking paper of 100 miles/day being the average distance traveled by car, whitewater sports are therefore 7-8 times more likely to lead to death than traveling in a car. New query showing more accurate incidence of death rates: https://w.wiki/3Src https://w.wiki/3Src
throwaway0a5e 5y ago
>if you assume 1 day = 100 miles. Which is one hell of an assumption in case that wasn't obvious. Even people with absurd commutes tend to have less than 100mi/day weekly or annual averages unless they're doing the same thing on the weekends.
- sgerenser 5y ago
  USDOT says average motorist drives 13,500 miles/year, or roughly 37 miles per day[0]. So divide by another factor of 3 to get a more realistic comparison of death rates between whitewater kayaking and driving. [0] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

foxes 5y ago

Cars are horrible, is it actually a surprise?