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I don't understand what the positive outcome of this is. If China invades Taiwan they'll be able to hold the rest of the world hostage because of TSMC. It's s

I don't understand what the positive outcome of this is. If China invades Taiwan they'll be able to hold the rest of the world hostage because of TSMC. It's still a lose-lose situation.

jacquesm 5y ago
ASML will be happy to ship your steppers to wherever you order them. Chip fabrication is so critical that a facility should be created on each continent.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  I am not up to speed on semiconductor manufacturing national security efforts, but it seems like the US is behind in subsidizing renewed semiconductor manufacturing and supply chains on US soil, and time is running out.
refenestrator 5y ago
The article concerns the year 1958, I'm pretty sure we were still using vacuum tubes at that time.
- DocTomoe 5y ago
  Pneumatic tube systems still are in operation, and popular especially in hospitals. Turns out it is far quicker than having to carry around medicine from the central apothecary.
  - Maursault 5y ago
    GP is likely referring to the use of electron tubes [1] perhaps juxtaposing (hypothetical Taiwanese) tubes in 1958 with TSMC today(?). A decade earlier, however, the transistor was invented and would replace the use of tubes, at least for computers. Tubes, aka valves, are still popular in professional and consumer audio equipment, vintage and contemporary microphones, amplifiers and compressors. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube
DennisP 5y ago
Ellsberg's worried about nuclear war. That would be worse than China getting TSMC. However, as far as TSMC is concerned, the likely outcome of an invasion would be that TSMC in Taiwan permanently shuts down: https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan
- doggodaddo78 5y ago
  MAD. I don't think anyone in the US or China is going to nuke anyone else because of survival instincts. There must be chain-of-command and multi-party custody controls in the militaries of all nuclear powers to prevent unauthorized release. In such stable cases, they become worse than White Elephants: can't get rid of them because of the liabilities of inviting nuclear and conventional wars, and can't keep them because they're expensive, inherently dangerous, and tempting for crazy people to use. Economic interdependence also creates another layer of protection from either side going too far because of the economic warfare potential before nuclear or conventional wars would be considered.
  - opnitro 5y ago
    I'd suggest reading Ellsberg's book (The Doomsday Machine) detailing the risks imposed by MAD.
- baybal2 5y ago
  10-30M body-count on US side vs communist global domination. Decide what is worse.
  - _vlamacko 5y ago
    There are real people on the other side as well. Don't forget them.
    - baybal2 5y ago
      I'll give you some food for thought. During WW2 Allies bombed 3rd reich's weapon factories, and occupied French cities. A lot of civilians died, really a lot. Do you think semi-enslaved German citizens working in 3rd reich's weapon factories wanted any much less to have these factories bombed? Do you think French under German occupation wanted any much less to have British bomb the occupied cities? No, survivors recall it seeing occupation government buildings bombed the most joyful moments, which led a lot of people to regain their spirits, and join the resistance.
lmm 5y ago
China is reaching the point where they could invade Taiwan and be confident of getting away with it, but they're not quite there yet. We're currently in a narrow window where the US could and should unilaterally recognise Taiwanese statehood and commit to a firm security guarantee.
- splitstud 5y ago
  China is constrained by its reliance on western markets. Full stop. It would hurt to pull the plug, but if they cross a line it will happen and they know it.
  - doggodaddo78 5y ago
    The US is completely dependent on China for manufacturing. China is completely dependent on the US for funding development. It would be bad news for either frenemy to start anything major.
    - stephen_g 5y ago
      Their posture is potentially lessening that dependency somewhat though - a company I work with, for example, now tries to find suppliers in Malaysia, Thailand, etc. for metalwork, PCB manufacture, assembly and things like that, which all would have just gone straight to China five years ago. This is a pretty small manufacturer with a fairly niche product, but I imagine others are thinking the same way.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - ben_w 5y ago
    Now it is. But their population alone is larger than all the western markets combined, so it probably won’t remain so indefinitely.
  - lkramer 5y ago
    Before Hong Kong I would probably have agreed with you, but You're assuming a purely rational reasoning. For China, and Xi in particular, there is a big element of national and personal pride at stake. It's for the same reason they have risked strangling Hong Kong in order to bring it more in line with the rest of China. Xi (more so than his predecessors) is quite happy to take a short term loss for (what he sees) as a long term gain. In addition, he would love to be remembered in history as the man he reunified China.
chrischen 5y ago
> If China invades Taiwan they'll be able to hold the rest of the world hostage because of TSMC. It's still a lose-lose situation. No, this is not true. China depends on foreign technology much, much more than anyone depends on TSMC. Just look at the Huawei and ZTE sanctions. Not to mention if China had that much leverage in the game they could easily sanction Taiwan and cut off probably a majority of its business dealings before resorting to invasion by force. Did you know that Taiwan and China (pre-covid) could freely travel between the countries more or less, and even setup business like Foxconn that profit off Chinese labor? There's literally more cooperation between Taiwan and China than US and Cuba.
- whakim 5y ago
  >> Did you know that Taiwan and China (pre-covid) could freely travel between the countries more or less, and even setup business like Foxconn that profit off Chinese labor? There's literally more cooperation between Taiwan and China than US and Cuba. This is because China had been attempting a policy of economic (and cultural) engagement with Taiwan for the best part of 20 years, up until the election of Tsai Ing-Wen in 2016. China had pursued this policy while the KMT were in power in Taiwan; the KMT are generally considered to favor closer ties between China and Taiwan. Things have changed a bit since the DPP (the more "anti-China" of Taiwan's two major political parties) won the 2016 and 2020 elections. I certainly don't know what the future holds, but I think China has now concluded that reunification through cultural/economic links is unlikely to succeed, not least because the idea of "one country, two systems" looks even less attractive after the events in Hong Kong.
- rndgermandude 5y ago
  >No, this is not true. China depends on foreign technology much, much more than anyone depends on TSMC.Just look at the Huawei and ZTE sanctions. Maybe this is still true for now, but that too is changing. China was already wary of that dependency and put efforts underway to rid itself of this dependency. The Huawei and ZTE sanctions only had the effect of putting these efforts into hyperdrive. [1] gives an overview of historic and current efforts. tl;dr China is not yet close to self-sufficient but they are spending like crazy and making major progress. Give it another 10, 15 years and the picture might look quite different, if it even takes them that long. And China is playing the long game anyway. [1] https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-development/ https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-de...
StanislavPetrov 5y ago
The positive outcome is avoiding a nuclear war and hundreds of millions dead. If we don't want to be held hostage because of TSMC the answer is to build up our own industry domestically, not destroy human civilization.

I don't understand what the positive outcome of this is. If China invades Taiwan they'll be able to hold the rest of the world hostage because of TSMC. It's still a lose-lose situation.

jacquesm 5y ago

ASML will be happy to ship your steppers to wherever you order them. Chip fabrication is so critical that a facility should be created on each continent.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
I am not up to speed on semiconductor manufacturing national security efforts, but it seems like the US is behind in subsidizing renewed semiconductor manufacturing and supply chains on US soil, and time is running out.

refenestrator 5y ago

The article concerns the year 1958, I'm pretty sure we were still using vacuum tubes at that time.

DocTomoe 5y ago
Pneumatic tube systems still are in operation, and popular especially in hospitals. Turns out it is far quicker than having to carry around medicine from the central apothecary.
- Maursault 5y ago
  GP is likely referring to the use of electron tubes [1] perhaps juxtaposing (hypothetical Taiwanese) tubes in 1958 with TSMC today(?). A decade earlier, however, the transistor was invented and would replace the use of tubes, at least for computers. Tubes, aka valves, are still popular in professional and consumer audio equipment, vintage and contemporary microphones, amplifiers and compressors. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube

DennisP 5y ago

Ellsberg's worried about nuclear war. That would be worse than China getting TSMC. However, as far as TSMC is concerned, the likely outcome of an invasion would be that TSMC in Taiwan permanently shuts down: https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan

doggodaddo78 5y ago
MAD. I don't think anyone in the US or China is going to nuke anyone else because of survival instincts. There must be chain-of-command and multi-party custody controls in the militaries of all nuclear powers to prevent unauthorized release. In such stable cases, they become worse than White Elephants: can't get rid of them because of the liabilities of inviting nuclear and conventional wars, and can't keep them because they're expensive, inherently dangerous, and tempting for crazy people to use. Economic interdependence also creates another layer of protection from either side going too far because of the economic warfare potential before nuclear or conventional wars would be considered.
- opnitro 5y ago
  I'd suggest reading Ellsberg's book (The Doomsday Machine) detailing the risks imposed by MAD.
baybal2 5y ago
10-30M body-count on US side vs communist global domination. Decide what is worse.
- _vlamacko 5y ago
  There are real people on the other side as well. Don't forget them.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    I'll give you some food for thought. During WW2 Allies bombed 3rd reich's weapon factories, and occupied French cities. A lot of civilians died, really a lot. Do you think semi-enslaved German citizens working in 3rd reich's weapon factories wanted any much less to have these factories bombed? Do you think French under German occupation wanted any much less to have British bomb the occupied cities? No, survivors recall it seeing occupation government buildings bombed the most joyful moments, which led a lot of people to regain their spirits, and join the resistance.

lmm 5y ago

China is reaching the point where they could invade Taiwan and be confident of getting away with it, but they're not quite there yet. We're currently in a narrow window where the US could and should unilaterally recognise Taiwanese statehood and commit to a firm security guarantee.

splitstud 5y ago
China is constrained by its reliance on western markets. Full stop. It would hurt to pull the plug, but if they cross a line it will happen and they know it.
- doggodaddo78 5y ago
  The US is completely dependent on China for manufacturing. China is completely dependent on the US for funding development. It would be bad news for either frenemy to start anything major.
  - stephen_g 5y ago
    Their posture is potentially lessening that dependency somewhat though - a company I work with, for example, now tries to find suppliers in Malaysia, Thailand, etc. for metalwork, PCB manufacture, assembly and things like that, which all would have just gone straight to China five years ago. This is a pretty small manufacturer with a fairly niche product, but I imagine others are thinking the same way.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- ben_w 5y ago
  Now it is. But their population alone is larger than all the western markets combined, so it probably won’t remain so indefinitely.
- lkramer 5y ago
  Before Hong Kong I would probably have agreed with you, but You're assuming a purely rational reasoning. For China, and Xi in particular, there is a big element of national and personal pride at stake. It's for the same reason they have risked strangling Hong Kong in order to bring it more in line with the rest of China. Xi (more so than his predecessors) is quite happy to take a short term loss for (what he sees) as a long term gain. In addition, he would love to be remembered in history as the man he reunified China.

chrischen 5y ago

> If China invades Taiwan they'll be able to hold the rest of the world hostage because of TSMC. It's still a lose-lose situation. No, this is not true. China depends on foreign technology much, much more than anyone depends on TSMC. Just look at the Huawei and ZTE sanctions. Not to mention if China had that much leverage in the game they could easily sanction Taiwan and cut off probably a majority of its business dealings before resorting to invasion by force. Did you know that Taiwan and China (pre-covid) could freely travel between the countries more or less, and even setup business like Foxconn that profit off Chinese labor? There's literally more cooperation between Taiwan and China than US and Cuba.

whakim 5y ago
>> Did you know that Taiwan and China (pre-covid) could freely travel between the countries more or less, and even setup business like Foxconn that profit off Chinese labor? There's literally more cooperation between Taiwan and China than US and Cuba. This is because China had been attempting a policy of economic (and cultural) engagement with Taiwan for the best part of 20 years, up until the election of Tsai Ing-Wen in 2016. China had pursued this policy while the KMT were in power in Taiwan; the KMT are generally considered to favor closer ties between China and Taiwan. Things have changed a bit since the DPP (the more "anti-China" of Taiwan's two major political parties) won the 2016 and 2020 elections. I certainly don't know what the future holds, but I think China has now concluded that reunification through cultural/economic links is unlikely to succeed, not least because the idea of "one country, two systems" looks even less attractive after the events in Hong Kong.
rndgermandude 5y ago
>No, this is not true. China depends on foreign technology much, much more than anyone depends on TSMC.Just look at the Huawei and ZTE sanctions. Maybe this is still true for now, but that too is changing. China was already wary of that dependency and put efforts underway to rid itself of this dependency. The Huawei and ZTE sanctions only had the effect of putting these efforts into hyperdrive. [1] gives an overview of historic and current efforts. tl;dr China is not yet close to self-sufficient but they are spending like crazy and making major progress. Give it another 10, 15 years and the picture might look quite different, if it even takes them that long. And China is playing the long game anyway. [1] https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-development/ https://semiengineering.com/china-speeds-up-advanced-chip-de...

StanislavPetrov 5y ago

The positive outcome is avoiding a nuclear war and hundreds of millions dead. If we don't want to be held hostage because of TSMC the answer is to build up our own industry domestically, not destroy human civilization.