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If you really want the answer to this question on your own, try out his algorithm and you will see what happens. Either he's right, and you make the suggested r
by xwdv 5y ago
If you really want the answer to this question on your own, try out his algorithm and you will see what happens. Either he's right, and you make the suggested returns in a year, or he's wrong and you slowly realize why. It will be a learning experience. Don't take anyone's word for it.
- Exuma 5y agoTo do that would be to presume I doubt the validity of your claim (I DO believe what you said). I specifically asked how overfitting applies to a simple procedural technique, rather than a multi-dimensional method like a neural network. Trying myself, and losing money, doesn't explain how overfitting applies to procedural steps (as I said, my ML is rusty)
- seoaeu 5y agoThe concern with these sorts of strategies is that you might discover the problem quickly. Say for instance if the stock you shorted doubles in value and you lose all your money. Even if there's only a small probability of that happening in a given year, going bankrupt by definition negates all the gains you got previously. Worse still, when you short stocks it is actually possible to lose more than your entire investment so a strategy can work amazingly 99/100 times and still have negative expected value.