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From the perspective of a diesel engine tech, this is a controversial opinion, but I'm absolutely glad to see this breakthrough. Lithium is a conflict resource

From the perspective of a diesel engine tech, this is a controversial opinion, but I'm absolutely glad to see this breakthrough. Lithium is a conflict resource. its scarce, its hard to mine, and as a result so far electric cars are a fanciful plaything for what i would consider "the rich." This paves the way for electric cars that a working class mom and dad can afford to get to and from work and the store. and of course electric trucks that have obscene amounts of torque means never "getting stuck" behind a slow truck ever again. it also means cleaner cities and hopefully cheaper trucking for over the road drivers and owner/operators. Ive told my coworkers and apprentices this for as long as i can remember: expect to service elecric long-haul trucks in your lifetime. Learn the powertrain, the dynamics, the performance characteristics and keep pace with the technology as it evolves. Make it part of your expectation in the future, because the economic model of diesel is a last-ditch effort at best in the 21st century.

coding123 5y ago
Just throwing this out there, but a lot of working class contractor type drive a RAM/Ford/Chevy 1 ton class diesel trucks with mega cab that typically runs in the neighborhood of 50-70k, so these people WILL transition to electric. I already know republican types in rural areas that even want to get the Cybertruck (even if it means looking like one of those rich types).
- jwolfe 5y ago
  > I already know republican types in rural areas that even want to get the Cybertruck (even if it means looking like one of those rich types). Not entirely on topic, but I'm curious whether their interest will shift to the electric Ford truck.
  - pmorici 5y ago
    Anecdotally, I know someone who saw the Electric Hummer commercial during the Super Bowl earlier this year and it led him down a path that ended in him buying a Model Y a few weeks ago. Other players announcing vehicles that are years away from production is a net positive for Tesla sales. It's counter intuitive so not many people under stand that but it is definitely a thing from what I've observed. The mechanism is that you have these companies talking about electric vehicles which brings more attention to the coming change in technology and Tesla has a wider selection of best in class for the price electric vehicles than anyone else that you can buy right now and not wait.
  - Gibbon1 5y ago
    I think the Ford electric F150 will sell like mad if it's reliable. Modern gas and diesel trucks are kinda a mechanical nightmare at this point. Used to be they were simpler than cars. Easy to work on. Now they are as complex. And as hard to work on as vans, of not more so. Means if anything goes wrong $$$. Electric, more reliable, easier to work on. With the same or better performance. If the early adopters have a good experience, everyone else is going to follow.
- daenz 5y ago
  I personally am not interested in the Cybertruck until it gets more mainstream. The thing is a target for every disgruntled driver who sees it in a parking lot. Telsa's already seem to be targeted frequently[0]. I don't need that kind of grief in my life. 0. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzpNC2zMAys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzpNC2zMAys (dramatic, but there are plenty more of these kinds of videos)
  - grahamburger 5y ago
    On paper I'm the type of person who ought to be interested in a cybertruck but I'm finding myself a lot more interested in the Ford F-150 Lightning.
    - Sanguinaire 5y ago
      Same here. Being in the UK means getting an F150 is pretty unlikely as I'd be worried about it fitting on some of our roads, but it is far more appealing than the cybertruck even for me as a soft, liberal tech worker.
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    I planned on jumping straight to a diesel Prius. That way both sides hate me. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0QXTKWBtke8 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0QXTKWBtke8
    - Syonyk 5y ago
      Nah, that's just boring. Go with a diesel Insight. There have been a few diesel swaps on the 1st gen Insights that manage the same or better fuel economy than the gas hybrid version. https://www.thedrive.com/news/38291/this-2000-honda-insight-with-a-vw-turbo-diesel-swap-may-be-the-ultimate-fuel-saver https://www.thedrive.com/news/38291/this-2000-honda-insight-... The Honda hybrid tech of that time is a lot easier to swap engines on. A Prius has the motors in the transmission, so it's harder to simply bolt a new engine on. You'd have to either drive the transaxle with your own control algorithms, or figure out another way to make it behave with a different engine. The Honda electric motor was on the engine crankshaft, and you could get the Insight with a manual transmission, so it's really just "bolt in the motor and go."
- kirse 5y ago
  Doesn't matter who you vote for if you can show up to a work site with a Diesel-Electric hybrid that has enough torque to unsafely tow a loaded semi trailer and power everything needed for the day. Truck manufacturers will figure it out over the next decade.
  - canadianfella 5y ago
    Why diesel?
  - ashtonkem 5y ago
    Next decade? Try next year. The F150 Lightning will absolutely dominate the fleet truck space if it comes anywhere close to delivering the promised specs.
    - culopatin 5y ago
      Assuming they have where to charge it
      - ashtonkem 5y ago
        Irrelevant for fleet trucks, which travel relatively short distances compared to commuter vehicles and always stay at the company yard overnight. A large charging network is really only relevant to regular consumers, and even that is more of a psychological reassurance than a strict requirement given measured consumer behavior.
        culopatin 5y ago
        I mean that the company would have to wire their yard to charge a fleet. One charging station at home is one thing, but 25 sounds like a much bigger project from an infrastructure standpoint
- nszceta 5y ago
  My 3/4 ton gas pickup truck gets 8 miles per gallon towing 12 thousand pounds hundreds of miles a month. I blow through multiple Teslas worth of energy per drive. No way is this thing going to be replaced by anything even remotely resembling the lithium ion batteries of today. And even if such a magical thing existed, I would need to charge it somewhere at over 100 amps to be useful. We need more nuclear power plants sequestering atmosphere carbon dioxide into liquid fuels. My job sites in rural counties lose power regularly in sunny calm wind conditions. I would be utterly helpless and stuck regularly if my vehicle strongly depended on the electrical grid. Liquid fuels carry so much energy per liter I can store a massive amount of energy in a compact package. This is more important to me than pulling a 55 foot semi trailer filled to the brim with 18650s to have enough energy to tow. I cringe at the cost of lithium ion batteries to meet my energy requirements. God forbid those batteries freeze! Now my precious expensive batteries are destroyed. We will see electric trucks in the near future on a very small subset of routes where reliable electrical connectivity is available.
  - s0rce 5y ago
    The vast majority of non-commercial truck use is not towing or hauling. Just look at the pickups you see on the road. Most are just luxury vehicles at this point. Not much difference than a slightly more practical sportscar.
    - syshum 5y ago
      I would love for you cite your sources on this... For Ford, the most popular Truck, 50-60% of Trucks are F150 XL, or XLT, the XL is the base work truck, the XLT as the common features but not level of luxury of the Lariat, or Platinum Trucks.
      - s0rce 5y ago
        Was just my observation on the road in the Western USA. I think the stats you have include fleet and commercial which frequently buy the base models, I was just talking about non-commercial use.
- syshum 5y ago
  >> I already know republican types in rural areas that even want to get the Cybertruck I call BS on that, of the many many many Truck owners I know maybe 10% have any interest in the Cybertruck... Of that 10% none of them use their truck for work or as an actual truck The CyberTruck is targeting Late Gen X and Millennials the grew up with 80's and 90's movies with nostalgia, not a practical usable truck Now the F150 Lightening that has about 60-70+% of the Truck Owners I know interested
TheDong 5y ago
> This paves the way for electric cars that a working class mom and dad can afford to get to and from work and the store. Are we not already there in terms of car prices? In SF, a used nissan leaf can be had for from $10k-15k. New EVs aren't actually vastly different in price from new economy cars, especially if you take into account various credits. To me, it seems like the main reason electric cars are relatively uncommon is not because the sticker price is too high, but rather because of factors like home charging (requires dedicated parking & possibly an expensive charger installed), fear of needing a second car _anyway_ for longer trips (partly due to awful charging infrastructure / range issues), and relatively few of them existing on the used market.
- lr4444lr 5y ago
  What do replacement batteries cost, though?
  - captrb 5y ago
    I recall this article about the total maintenance costs of a Model X cab with 400k miles. It’s a very interesting look at total cost of ownership over time. https://electrek.co/2020/05/11/tesla-model-x-extreme-mileage-repair-maintenance/ https://electrek.co/2020/05/11/tesla-model-x-extreme-mileage...
    - rsj_hn 5y ago
      That is, unfortunately, anecdata. Everyone keeps telling me that electric cars have fewer moving parts and have such low maintenance costs that they cost 90% less to maintain, at which point I turn around and ask why Tesla doesn't offer a bumper to bumper 20 year warranty, because they can benefit from the law of large numbers. If the repair costs are so much better, this should be easy to do, right? That's the point where my interlocuter usually walks away as they have no answer. One way you can try to estimate what the real maintenance cost is in the first X years is to look at what automakers set aside for warranties. In that case, (the last I looked), Tesla seemed in the middle of the pack vis-a-vis major ICE makers. But then you have the 20-X years of service, and the dirty secret is that those years are also paid for by new owners except they pay those repairs forward as depreciation when they sell. So then you look at depreciation curves, to see if Tesla is holding up much better than ICE vehicles due to lower expected maintenance costs and there, too, Tesla appears to be right in line with other major producers. So bottom line, I can't find any evidence for the thesis that getting rid of all these components will significantly reduce lifetime maintenance costs, while the battery costs remain a big unknown. Now part of this is just not having enough data. In 20 years, we'll have a lot more data, and then maybe the warranty policies and depreciation curves will look very different. But this goes back to my point which is why isn't Tesla insuring the buyers against this risk by selling massive 20 year waranties to stand behind these claims of long service life and very low maintenance costs? Why leave people searching for anecdata in a new car whose service costs they don't have the data to estimate? For most people a car is a major portion of their net-worth and they tend to be conservative in making this purchase. Sure, for high income buyers, they can afford to take risks but most buyers can't. So why doesn't Tesla do more to insure prospective buyers against this risk? It seems like such a no brainer, and yet many companies insist on pushing risk onto the customer. This isn't just an issue with Tesla, but I see it in many industries, where the producer is the one who has the survivorship data, they benefit from the law of large numbers, and they have financial backing, they are in a position to sell insurance, and people would buy the insurance, but the insurance just isn't being offerred, and if it is offered, it's on absolutely terrible terms, rather than as something to remove purchase frictions.
pmorici 5y ago
The base level Tesla Model 3 already costs just under the US average ($40,875) for a new car. [0] A Tesla has been affordable to the average middle class person for several years now. Maybe not on part with the cheapest new cars (~$20k) but within the next 5 years they will be. [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-now-the-average-price-of-a-new-car-11613683827 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-now-the-average-pr...
- Sharlin 5y ago
  According to quick googling, sales of used cars outnumber new car sales by about 2.5:1 in the US. The ratio is almost certainly higher in other parts of the world. Anyway, globally speaking the US middle class is, of course, extremely wealthy. Even in most Western countries €$£40k cars are not really affordable to the middle class.
Dumblydorr 5y ago
How is lithium a conflict mineral? 51k tons mined in Australia, then the other top 3 countries are Argentina 16k, Chile and china 8k. If you want to speak of conflict minerals for EVs, cobalt is WAY more problematic, since it is far more rare and mined mostly in the DRC, where we know child labor and starvation pay is given for the work that allows EV cathodes their precious Co. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium-mining-what-you-should-know-about-the-contentious-issue.html https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium...
- curryslapper 5y ago
  yes.
- lucian1900 5y ago
  Bolivia has only recently defeated a US-backed coup.
  - Mountain_Skies 5y ago
    Was lithium the purpose or are there greater issues at hand and Bolivia happens to have lithium deposits?
    - lucian1900 5y ago
      The timing is highly suspect, right after Bolivia refused a ~5% offer of joint extraction from a German company in favour of a 50% one from a Chinese one. The US also has a long history of aggression for resources. It could be more than just that too, the Monroe doctrine is alive and well. All South American anti-imperialists get attacked by the US.
  - haliskerbas 5y ago
    And Elon supported this explicitly. https://twitter.com/panoparker/status/1318157559266762752?s=21 https://twitter.com/panoparker/status/1318157559266762752?s=...
canadianfella 5y ago
> Lithium is a conflict resource. its scarce, its hard to mine, 3 lies in 11 words.
ashtonkem 5y ago
> and of course electric trucks that have obscene amounts of torque means never "getting stuck" behind a slow truck ever again If you've ever read old car advertisements, they would say the exact same thing about old supercars that would lose a drag race against a Toyota Corolla. In reality speed and torque is an arms race among most road users. For a short while whoever has the nicest car has the ability to rapidly outrun anyone else, but that advantage diminishes as the technology gets cheaper and more common. In 20 years a modern Tesla will not be considered fast at all.
- airbreather 5y ago
  you can only apply so much power thru the tires before adhesion is lost, we are close to that limit now
  - dieortin 5y ago
    We’re way beyond that limit since long ago.
  - Shikadi 5y ago
    We just need thrusters on top to provide more downforce
esturk 5y ago
Can't diesel engines run on jet fuel? For this reason, I can't imagine diesel engines ever going away as long as there are amateur pilots.
- hollerith 5y ago
  Huh? There are approximately zero amateur pilots that own jet aircraft -- they cost too much. Certainly not enough to help keep alive the market for diesel pickup trucks.
  - Treblemaker 5y ago
    According to a 2017 report by the Airline Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) [1], general aviation -- defined as all civilian flying except scheduled passenger airline service -- consumed 209 million gallons of avgas and 1.8 billion gallons of jet fuel. NB: turboprop aircraft also consume jet fuel. [1] http://download.aopa.org/hr/Report_on_General_Aviation_Trends.pdf http://download.aopa.org/hr/Report_on_General_Aviation_Trend...
    - wearywanderer 5y ago
      The more I read this document, the more confused I get. I am most curious about the proportion of this jet fuel being burned by helicopters. The document has some information about rotorcraft, confirming that helicopters are included (though rotorcraft also includes petrol-burning gyroplanes...) Page 5 for instance lists rotorcraft. But page 5 is confusing to me; has the categories 'single engine', 'multi-engine', 'turboprop', 'turbojet', 'rotorcraft', etc. Are aircraft being double-counted in these categories? Is a single-engine turboprop plane counted twice, in both the turboprop and single-engine categories? Is a Bell 206, a multi-engine turboshaft helicopter, counted as multi-engine, rotorcraft... and also turbojet/turboprop? There is no category on this page for turboshaft aircraft. Maybe the nature of these classifications is clear to a pilot, but they aren't to me. Page 7 breaks down total operations into the categories jet/piston/turboprop, and seems to have piston operations as about 1/3rd of the total. 1/3rd is a far cry from 1/9 ratio suggested by 209 million gallons of avgas vs 1.8 billion gallons of jet fuel. Here is my suspicion: that difference comes from turboshaft helicopters. Typical turboshaft helicopters burn many more gallons of fuel per hour than other forms of GA aircraft. Also a nitpick: GP mentioned amateur pilots, but many general aviation pilots are doing it professionally. I would wager most helicopter-hours are probably being flown by professional pilots. For instance, all the helicopters being flown for news stations and police departments have professional pilots and fall under general aviation.
davmar 5y ago
Well, my used 2016 Nissan Leaf was $11k so while you're correct that Telsa appeals to the well-off, not all EVs have the same market.
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  $11K is still a lot for a lot of people who need a car. I generally put a limit of $4K on a car, and I could easily afford to buy brand-new. Some people don't have that choice.
seaman1921 5y ago
lifetime? Companies like Hyliion are targeting a RNG+electric class-8 launch this year from what I have read
hedora 5y ago
If you have the chance to visit China, I suggest doing so. They’ve already converted most personal vehicles to electric. Cars aren’t nearly as popular as scooters, rickshaws, etc., which cost $100s (or maybe low $1000’s) in US dollars, new. At that price point, consumables for an internal combustion engine start to be a significant fraction of the vehicle cost. Lithium batteries are hardly only a plaything for the rich.
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  EV + PHEV vehicle marketshare in China in 2019 (most recent year with data) remains under 5%, though it's doubled in 2 years. China is far from majority-EV quantitatively, and at least four doublings (8 years) from a 50% share in new vehicles temporally. That's actually excellent progress. But it's nowhere near your claim. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1050111/china-electric-car-market-share/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1050111/china-electric-c...
  - londons_explore 5y ago
    I think OP is saying a lot of 'cars' in China wouldn't fall under that definition of a car, so aren't in the stats...
    - dredmorbius 5y ago
      If so, that was stated quite unclearly. Though yes, the thought occurred after I'd posted. Per capita car ownership might help tease that out (along with sales of car substitutes). US car ownership is 804 vehicles per 1,000. In China it's 204 vehicles/1,000 pop. Wikipedia's Transport in China page could use some updating, but also fails to support OP's claims: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_China#Road https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_China#Road
      - hedora 5y ago
        According to that article, total car ownership in 2003 was equal to one year of sales of motorized bikes.

coding123 5y ago

Just throwing this out there, but a lot of working class contractor type drive a RAM/Ford/Chevy 1 ton class diesel trucks with mega cab that typically runs in the neighborhood of 50-70k, so these people WILL transition to electric. I already know republican types in rural areas that even want to get the Cybertruck (even if it means looking like one of those rich types).

jwolfe 5y ago
> I already know republican types in rural areas that even want to get the Cybertruck (even if it means looking like one of those rich types). Not entirely on topic, but I'm curious whether their interest will shift to the electric Ford truck.
- pmorici 5y ago
  Anecdotally, I know someone who saw the Electric Hummer commercial during the Super Bowl earlier this year and it led him down a path that ended in him buying a Model Y a few weeks ago. Other players announcing vehicles that are years away from production is a net positive for Tesla sales. It's counter intuitive so not many people under stand that but it is definitely a thing from what I've observed. The mechanism is that you have these companies talking about electric vehicles which brings more attention to the coming change in technology and Tesla has a wider selection of best in class for the price electric vehicles than anyone else that you can buy right now and not wait.
- Gibbon1 5y ago
  I think the Ford electric F150 will sell like mad if it's reliable. Modern gas and diesel trucks are kinda a mechanical nightmare at this point. Used to be they were simpler than cars. Easy to work on. Now they are as complex. And as hard to work on as vans, of not more so. Means if anything goes wrong $$$. Electric, more reliable, easier to work on. With the same or better performance. If the early adopters have a good experience, everyone else is going to follow.
daenz 5y ago
I personally am not interested in the Cybertruck until it gets more mainstream. The thing is a target for every disgruntled driver who sees it in a parking lot. Telsa's already seem to be targeted frequently[0]. I don't need that kind of grief in my life. 0. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzpNC2zMAys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzpNC2zMAys (dramatic, but there are plenty more of these kinds of videos)
- grahamburger 5y ago
  On paper I'm the type of person who ought to be interested in a cybertruck but I'm finding myself a lot more interested in the Ford F-150 Lightning.
  - Sanguinaire 5y ago
    Same here. Being in the UK means getting an F150 is pretty unlikely as I'd be worried about it fitting on some of our roads, but it is far more appealing than the cybertruck even for me as a soft, liberal tech worker.
- ethbr0 5y ago
  I planned on jumping straight to a diesel Prius. That way both sides hate me. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0QXTKWBtke8 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0QXTKWBtke8
  - Syonyk 5y ago
    Nah, that's just boring. Go with a diesel Insight. There have been a few diesel swaps on the 1st gen Insights that manage the same or better fuel economy than the gas hybrid version. https://www.thedrive.com/news/38291/this-2000-honda-insight-with-a-vw-turbo-diesel-swap-may-be-the-ultimate-fuel-saver https://www.thedrive.com/news/38291/this-2000-honda-insight-... The Honda hybrid tech of that time is a lot easier to swap engines on. A Prius has the motors in the transmission, so it's harder to simply bolt a new engine on. You'd have to either drive the transaxle with your own control algorithms, or figure out another way to make it behave with a different engine. The Honda electric motor was on the engine crankshaft, and you could get the Insight with a manual transmission, so it's really just "bolt in the motor and go."
kirse 5y ago
Doesn't matter who you vote for if you can show up to a work site with a Diesel-Electric hybrid that has enough torque to unsafely tow a loaded semi trailer and power everything needed for the day. Truck manufacturers will figure it out over the next decade.
- canadianfella 5y ago
  Why diesel?
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  Next decade? Try next year. The F150 Lightning will absolutely dominate the fleet truck space if it comes anywhere close to delivering the promised specs.
  - culopatin 5y ago
    Assuming they have where to charge it
    - ashtonkem 5y ago
      Irrelevant for fleet trucks, which travel relatively short distances compared to commuter vehicles and always stay at the company yard overnight. A large charging network is really only relevant to regular consumers, and even that is more of a psychological reassurance than a strict requirement given measured consumer behavior.
      - culopatin 5y ago
        I mean that the company would have to wire their yard to charge a fleet. One charging station at home is one thing, but 25 sounds like a much bigger project from an infrastructure standpoint
nszceta 5y ago
My 3/4 ton gas pickup truck gets 8 miles per gallon towing 12 thousand pounds hundreds of miles a month. I blow through multiple Teslas worth of energy per drive. No way is this thing going to be replaced by anything even remotely resembling the lithium ion batteries of today. And even if such a magical thing existed, I would need to charge it somewhere at over 100 amps to be useful. We need more nuclear power plants sequestering atmosphere carbon dioxide into liquid fuels. My job sites in rural counties lose power regularly in sunny calm wind conditions. I would be utterly helpless and stuck regularly if my vehicle strongly depended on the electrical grid. Liquid fuels carry so much energy per liter I can store a massive amount of energy in a compact package. This is more important to me than pulling a 55 foot semi trailer filled to the brim with 18650s to have enough energy to tow. I cringe at the cost of lithium ion batteries to meet my energy requirements. God forbid those batteries freeze! Now my precious expensive batteries are destroyed. We will see electric trucks in the near future on a very small subset of routes where reliable electrical connectivity is available.
- s0rce 5y ago
  The vast majority of non-commercial truck use is not towing or hauling. Just look at the pickups you see on the road. Most are just luxury vehicles at this point. Not much difference than a slightly more practical sportscar.
  - syshum 5y ago
    I would love for you cite your sources on this... For Ford, the most popular Truck, 50-60% of Trucks are F150 XL, or XLT, the XL is the base work truck, the XLT as the common features but not level of luxury of the Lariat, or Platinum Trucks.
    - s0rce 5y ago
      Was just my observation on the road in the Western USA. I think the stats you have include fleet and commercial which frequently buy the base models, I was just talking about non-commercial use.
syshum 5y ago
>> I already know republican types in rural areas that even want to get the Cybertruck I call BS on that, of the many many many Truck owners I know maybe 10% have any interest in the Cybertruck... Of that 10% none of them use their truck for work or as an actual truck The CyberTruck is targeting Late Gen X and Millennials the grew up with 80's and 90's movies with nostalgia, not a practical usable truck Now the F150 Lightening that has about 60-70+% of the Truck Owners I know interested

TheDong 5y ago

> This paves the way for electric cars that a working class mom and dad can afford to get to and from work and the store. Are we not already there in terms of car prices? In SF, a used nissan leaf can be had for from $10k-15k. New EVs aren't actually vastly different in price from new economy cars, especially if you take into account various credits. To me, it seems like the main reason electric cars are relatively uncommon is not because the sticker price is too high, but rather because of factors like home charging (requires dedicated parking & possibly an expensive charger installed), fear of needing a second car _anyway_ for longer trips (partly due to awful charging infrastructure / range issues), and relatively few of them existing on the used market.

lr4444lr 5y ago
What do replacement batteries cost, though?
- captrb 5y ago
  I recall this article about the total maintenance costs of a Model X cab with 400k miles. It’s a very interesting look at total cost of ownership over time. https://electrek.co/2020/05/11/tesla-model-x-extreme-mileage-repair-maintenance/ https://electrek.co/2020/05/11/tesla-model-x-extreme-mileage...
  - rsj_hn 5y ago
    That is, unfortunately, anecdata. Everyone keeps telling me that electric cars have fewer moving parts and have such low maintenance costs that they cost 90% less to maintain, at which point I turn around and ask why Tesla doesn't offer a bumper to bumper 20 year warranty, because they can benefit from the law of large numbers. If the repair costs are so much better, this should be easy to do, right? That's the point where my interlocuter usually walks away as they have no answer. One way you can try to estimate what the real maintenance cost is in the first X years is to look at what automakers set aside for warranties. In that case, (the last I looked), Tesla seemed in the middle of the pack vis-a-vis major ICE makers. But then you have the 20-X years of service, and the dirty secret is that those years are also paid for by new owners except they pay those repairs forward as depreciation when they sell. So then you look at depreciation curves, to see if Tesla is holding up much better than ICE vehicles due to lower expected maintenance costs and there, too, Tesla appears to be right in line with other major producers. So bottom line, I can't find any evidence for the thesis that getting rid of all these components will significantly reduce lifetime maintenance costs, while the battery costs remain a big unknown. Now part of this is just not having enough data. In 20 years, we'll have a lot more data, and then maybe the warranty policies and depreciation curves will look very different. But this goes back to my point which is why isn't Tesla insuring the buyers against this risk by selling massive 20 year waranties to stand behind these claims of long service life and very low maintenance costs? Why leave people searching for anecdata in a new car whose service costs they don't have the data to estimate? For most people a car is a major portion of their net-worth and they tend to be conservative in making this purchase. Sure, for high income buyers, they can afford to take risks but most buyers can't. So why doesn't Tesla do more to insure prospective buyers against this risk? It seems like such a no brainer, and yet many companies insist on pushing risk onto the customer. This isn't just an issue with Tesla, but I see it in many industries, where the producer is the one who has the survivorship data, they benefit from the law of large numbers, and they have financial backing, they are in a position to sell insurance, and people would buy the insurance, but the insurance just isn't being offerred, and if it is offered, it's on absolutely terrible terms, rather than as something to remove purchase frictions.

pmorici 5y ago

The base level Tesla Model 3 already costs just under the US average ($40,875) for a new car. [0] A Tesla has been affordable to the average middle class person for several years now. Maybe not on part with the cheapest new cars (~$20k) but within the next 5 years they will be. [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-now-the-average-price-of-a-new-car-11613683827 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-now-the-average-pr...

Sharlin 5y ago
According to quick googling, sales of used cars outnumber new car sales by about 2.5:1 in the US. The ratio is almost certainly higher in other parts of the world. Anyway, globally speaking the US middle class is, of course, extremely wealthy. Even in most Western countries €$£40k cars are not really affordable to the middle class.

Dumblydorr 5y ago

How is lithium a conflict mineral? 51k tons mined in Australia, then the other top 3 countries are Argentina 16k, Chile and china 8k. If you want to speak of conflict minerals for EVs, cobalt is WAY more problematic, since it is far more rare and mined mostly in the DRC, where we know child labor and starvation pay is given for the work that allows EV cathodes their precious Co. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium-mining-what-you-should-know-about-the-contentious-issue.html https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium...

curryslapper 5y ago
yes.
lucian1900 5y ago
Bolivia has only recently defeated a US-backed coup.
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  Was lithium the purpose or are there greater issues at hand and Bolivia happens to have lithium deposits?
  - lucian1900 5y ago
    The timing is highly suspect, right after Bolivia refused a ~5% offer of joint extraction from a German company in favour of a 50% one from a Chinese one. The US also has a long history of aggression for resources. It could be more than just that too, the Monroe doctrine is alive and well. All South American anti-imperialists get attacked by the US.
- haliskerbas 5y ago
  And Elon supported this explicitly. https://twitter.com/panoparker/status/1318157559266762752?s=21 https://twitter.com/panoparker/status/1318157559266762752?s=...

canadianfella 5y ago

> Lithium is a conflict resource. its scarce, its hard to mine, 3 lies in 11 words.

ashtonkem 5y ago

> and of course electric trucks that have obscene amounts of torque means never "getting stuck" behind a slow truck ever again If you've ever read old car advertisements, they would say the exact same thing about old supercars that would lose a drag race against a Toyota Corolla. In reality speed and torque is an arms race among most road users. For a short while whoever has the nicest car has the ability to rapidly outrun anyone else, but that advantage diminishes as the technology gets cheaper and more common. In 20 years a modern Tesla will not be considered fast at all.

airbreather 5y ago
you can only apply so much power thru the tires before adhesion is lost, we are close to that limit now
- dieortin 5y ago
  We’re way beyond that limit since long ago.
- Shikadi 5y ago
  We just need thrusters on top to provide more downforce

esturk 5y ago

Can't diesel engines run on jet fuel? For this reason, I can't imagine diesel engines ever going away as long as there are amateur pilots.

hollerith 5y ago
Huh? There are approximately zero amateur pilots that own jet aircraft -- they cost too much. Certainly not enough to help keep alive the market for diesel pickup trucks.
- Treblemaker 5y ago
  According to a 2017 report by the Airline Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) [1], general aviation -- defined as all civilian flying except scheduled passenger airline service -- consumed 209 million gallons of avgas and 1.8 billion gallons of jet fuel. NB: turboprop aircraft also consume jet fuel. [1] http://download.aopa.org/hr/Report_on_General_Aviation_Trends.pdf http://download.aopa.org/hr/Report_on_General_Aviation_Trend...
  - wearywanderer 5y ago
    The more I read this document, the more confused I get. I am most curious about the proportion of this jet fuel being burned by helicopters. The document has some information about rotorcraft, confirming that helicopters are included (though rotorcraft also includes petrol-burning gyroplanes...) Page 5 for instance lists rotorcraft. But page 5 is confusing to me; has the categories 'single engine', 'multi-engine', 'turboprop', 'turbojet', 'rotorcraft', etc. Are aircraft being double-counted in these categories? Is a single-engine turboprop plane counted twice, in both the turboprop and single-engine categories? Is a Bell 206, a multi-engine turboshaft helicopter, counted as multi-engine, rotorcraft... and also turbojet/turboprop? There is no category on this page for turboshaft aircraft. Maybe the nature of these classifications is clear to a pilot, but they aren't to me. Page 7 breaks down total operations into the categories jet/piston/turboprop, and seems to have piston operations as about 1/3rd of the total. 1/3rd is a far cry from 1/9 ratio suggested by 209 million gallons of avgas vs 1.8 billion gallons of jet fuel. Here is my suspicion: that difference comes from turboshaft helicopters. Typical turboshaft helicopters burn many more gallons of fuel per hour than other forms of GA aircraft. Also a nitpick: GP mentioned amateur pilots, but many general aviation pilots are doing it professionally. I would wager most helicopter-hours are probably being flown by professional pilots. For instance, all the helicopters being flown for news stations and police departments have professional pilots and fall under general aviation.

davmar 5y ago

Well, my used 2016 Nissan Leaf was $11k so while you're correct that Telsa appeals to the well-off, not all EVs have the same market.

throwawayboise 5y ago
$11K is still a lot for a lot of people who need a car. I generally put a limit of $4K on a car, and I could easily afford to buy brand-new. Some people don't have that choice.

seaman1921 5y ago

lifetime? Companies like Hyliion are targeting a RNG+electric class-8 launch this year from what I have read

hedora 5y ago

If you have the chance to visit China, I suggest doing so. They’ve already converted most personal vehicles to electric. Cars aren’t nearly as popular as scooters, rickshaws, etc., which cost $100s (or maybe low $1000’s) in US dollars, new. At that price point, consumables for an internal combustion engine start to be a significant fraction of the vehicle cost. Lithium batteries are hardly only a plaything for the rich.

dredmorbius 5y ago
EV + PHEV vehicle marketshare in China in 2019 (most recent year with data) remains under 5%, though it's doubled in 2 years. China is far from majority-EV quantitatively, and at least four doublings (8 years) from a 50% share in new vehicles temporally. That's actually excellent progress. But it's nowhere near your claim. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1050111/china-electric-car-market-share/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1050111/china-electric-c...
- londons_explore 5y ago
  I think OP is saying a lot of 'cars' in China wouldn't fall under that definition of a car, so aren't in the stats...
  - dredmorbius 5y ago
    If so, that was stated quite unclearly. Though yes, the thought occurred after I'd posted. Per capita car ownership might help tease that out (along with sales of car substitutes). US car ownership is 804 vehicles per 1,000. In China it's 204 vehicles/1,000 pop. Wikipedia's Transport in China page could use some updating, but also fails to support OP's claims: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_China#Road https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_China#Road
    - hedora 5y ago
      According to that article, total car ownership in 2003 was equal to one year of sales of motorized bikes.