4 ms·

Probability for Slay the Spire Fanatics

50 points by danso 5y ago

tikhonj 5y ago
For reference/further reading, the problem in the blog post is modeled by the hypergeometric distribution[1]. Approximating the hypergeometric distribution in your head is a handy skill for card games with any time pressure—definitely comes up when playing Magic: The Gathering :). [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution
danbrooks 5y ago
It's also important for slay the spire fanatics to understand the underlying game mechanics. - The first three fights of act 1 come from an "easier" fight pool. There's a similar mechanic for acts 2 and 3. - The odds of finding a potion in a hallway fight start at 40%. If you get a potion, the odds go down -10%. Otherwise they go up 10%. After each boss fight, the odds reset to 40%. - The odds of getting a rare card from a combat card reward start at -2% (per card) and increase 1% every time a common card is offered. - You are not offered upgraded cards in act 1. At high ascension, this increases to 12.5% in act 2 and 25% in act 3.
enkid 5y ago
I am currently obsessed with this game. There are so many meaningful decisions and a lot of trade offs between what is good now versus what is good endgame. I hope they keep adding content, but I feel like I could play it in it's current form for years even if they didn't touch it at all
- hypertele-Xii 5y ago
  Once you get bored of the basic game, try playing a custom one with Diverse and Colorless cards. Variety explodes.
- danielheath 5y ago
  The modding community have really stood out here - particularly “downfall”.
- shoo 5y ago
  if you love slay the spire, definitely check out monster train: a lot of the systems are the same (each run is short, deckbuilder, accumulate artifacts, upgrade/purge/gain cards, a "covenant rank" system (same as spire's ascension) to ratchet up the difficulty). the combat is replaced with angels-vs-demons tower defence on a quadruple-decker train. daily runs with a shared scoreboard. really polished. the strategy is much more upgrade-focused (there are multiple kinds of upgrades that can be applied to cards, and each card can have multiple upgrades). another recommendation: circadian dice. maybe call it a "dicebuilder". not as polished or commercialised as spire or monster train, but a gem of a game. your character starts with two d6, each d6 has different symbol(s) on each face (attack, shield, coin, heart, ...). then during the run you can buy upgrades to replace two adjacent faces in your face. as your character gains experience you unlock additional dice. there's meta-progression than unlocks another handful of symbols and symbol-modifiers (score the dice even if you reroll it; get a bonus for scoring the dice during the day/night; ...) circadian dice is a pay-what-you-like download for windows from itch.io
  - SirSourdough 5y ago
    Griftlands is also great for a more story-driven / impactful decisions deckbuilder. Sort of STS wrapped in a well made RPG. Similar game mechanics as you laid out for Monster Train/STS but with the "twist" that there are two types of decks that you build each run, one for negotiation and one for combat. Many encounters can be approached either way, and your ongoing relationships with the other characters give you buffs/debuffs and shape the story.
  - animal531 5y ago
    I love both and am currently also enjoying Tainted Grail which just released recently. It uses a lot of their mechanics along with some from other games. I don't think it's as well balanced yet, but its a steal at its current price.
faeriechangling 5y ago
Or you can use a hypergeometric calculator https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx I made a recursive hypergeometric calculator in python for fun and learning. I believe there's technically more efficient ways to go about things. This comes up in many many situations where you draw without replacement. If you are drawing WITH replacement, you can use a binomial distribution https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
yarinr 5y ago
If you haven't played Slay the Spire yet, I highly recommend it. Never thought I'll find myself playing a roguelike deck-builder, but this game is just a massive amount of fun. It's got a huge depth to it, and you can always keep learning and improving. Beware though - it's highly addictive and can be a huge time sink ;-) If you want to get started or improve your game, check out Jorbs - he's a twitch streamer and probably considered the best Slay the Spire player out there. He's got a YouTube channel[0] where he uploads "over explained" runs, in which he shares his thinking processes and the logic behind his decision making. Definitely helped me improve! [0] https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLesIE_v8rF22k9WCbgifXIyHZpZw1YPSM https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLesIE_v8rF22k9WCbgifXIyHZ...
- reidjs 5y ago
  I would recommend not getting the game if you have a highly addictive personality when it comes to games. I spent hundreds of hours on slay the spire and it affected my last relationship. Amazing game though.
  - Yajirobe 5y ago
    > it affected my last relationship how so?
    - tempay 5y ago
      Probably spending time playing that should have been spent talking to/being with their partner. Depending on your and your partners personality it can take a serious toll.
    - reidjs 5y ago
      Paying attention to the iPad instead of her
  - episteme 5y ago
    This is such a strange comment to me. It's not got a particularly sinister design that means it is more addictive than many other games out there - as far as I can tell from what I've played of it anyway. I don't think you can blame the game for anything that happened to you and I hope your next relationship goes better.

50 points by danso 5y ago

For reference/further reading, the problem in the blog post is modeled by the hypergeometric distribution[1]. Approximating the hypergeometric distribution in your head is a handy skill for card games with any time pressure—definitely comes up when playing Magic: The Gathering :). [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution

danbrooks 5y ago

It's also important for slay the spire fanatics to understand the underlying game mechanics. - The first three fights of act 1 come from an "easier" fight pool. There's a similar mechanic for acts 2 and 3. - The odds of finding a potion in a hallway fight start at 40%. If you get a potion, the odds go down -10%. Otherwise they go up 10%. After each boss fight, the odds reset to 40%. - The odds of getting a rare card from a combat card reward start at -2% (per card) and increase 1% every time a common card is offered. - You are not offered upgraded cards in act 1. At high ascension, this increases to 12.5% in act 2 and 25% in act 3.

enkid 5y ago

I am currently obsessed with this game. There are so many meaningful decisions and a lot of trade offs between what is good now versus what is good endgame. I hope they keep adding content, but I feel like I could play it in it's current form for years even if they didn't touch it at all

hypertele-Xii 5y ago
Once you get bored of the basic game, try playing a custom one with Diverse and Colorless cards. Variety explodes.
danielheath 5y ago
The modding community have really stood out here - particularly “downfall”.
shoo 5y ago
if you love slay the spire, definitely check out monster train: a lot of the systems are the same (each run is short, deckbuilder, accumulate artifacts, upgrade/purge/gain cards, a "covenant rank" system (same as spire's ascension) to ratchet up the difficulty). the combat is replaced with angels-vs-demons tower defence on a quadruple-decker train. daily runs with a shared scoreboard. really polished. the strategy is much more upgrade-focused (there are multiple kinds of upgrades that can be applied to cards, and each card can have multiple upgrades). another recommendation: circadian dice. maybe call it a "dicebuilder". not as polished or commercialised as spire or monster train, but a gem of a game. your character starts with two d6, each d6 has different symbol(s) on each face (attack, shield, coin, heart, ...). then during the run you can buy upgrades to replace two adjacent faces in your face. as your character gains experience you unlock additional dice. there's meta-progression than unlocks another handful of symbols and symbol-modifiers (score the dice even if you reroll it; get a bonus for scoring the dice during the day/night; ...) circadian dice is a pay-what-you-like download for windows from itch.io
- SirSourdough 5y ago
  Griftlands is also great for a more story-driven / impactful decisions deckbuilder. Sort of STS wrapped in a well made RPG. Similar game mechanics as you laid out for Monster Train/STS but with the "twist" that there are two types of decks that you build each run, one for negotiation and one for combat. Many encounters can be approached either way, and your ongoing relationships with the other characters give you buffs/debuffs and shape the story.
- animal531 5y ago
  I love both and am currently also enjoying Tainted Grail which just released recently. It uses a lot of their mechanics along with some from other games. I don't think it's as well balanced yet, but its a steal at its current price.

faeriechangling 5y ago

Or you can use a hypergeometric calculator https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx I made a recursive hypergeometric calculator in python for fun and learning. I believe there's technically more efficient ways to go about things. This comes up in many many situations where you draw without replacement. If you are drawing WITH replacement, you can use a binomial distribution https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

yarinr 5y ago

If you haven't played Slay the Spire yet, I highly recommend it. Never thought I'll find myself playing a roguelike deck-builder, but this game is just a massive amount of fun. It's got a huge depth to it, and you can always keep learning and improving. Beware though - it's highly addictive and can be a huge time sink ;-) If you want to get started or improve your game, check out Jorbs - he's a twitch streamer and probably considered the best Slay the Spire player out there. He's got a YouTube channel[0] where he uploads "over explained" runs, in which he shares his thinking processes and the logic behind his decision making. Definitely helped me improve! [0] https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLesIE_v8rF22k9WCbgifXIyHZpZw1YPSM https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLesIE_v8rF22k9WCbgifXIyHZ...

reidjs 5y ago
I would recommend not getting the game if you have a highly addictive personality when it comes to games. I spent hundreds of hours on slay the spire and it affected my last relationship. Amazing game though.
- Yajirobe 5y ago
  > it affected my last relationship how so?
  - tempay 5y ago
    Probably spending time playing that should have been spent talking to/being with their partner. Depending on your and your partners personality it can take a serious toll.
  - reidjs 5y ago
    Paying attention to the iPad instead of her
- episteme 5y ago
  This is such a strange comment to me. It's not got a particularly sinister design that means it is more addictive than many other games out there - as far as I can tell from what I've played of it anyway. I don't think you can blame the game for anything that happened to you and I hope your next relationship goes better.