3 ms·

Given that governments have helped overturn regimes before, why isn't this being done now? Clearly it would benefit the Belarussian people (friends I have there

Given that governments have helped overturn regimes before, why isn't this being done now? Clearly it would benefit the Belarussian people (friends I have there are struggling a lot) as well as EU. Or are we just afraid of Russia too much still?

throwaway4good 5y ago
I am sure its being done right now. “We” just don’t talk about it.
londons_explore 5y ago
Who will do it? Russia won't, because they're quite happy with the situation. The EU won't, because Russia would intervene with any sign of Belarusian leaders getting 'sick'.
pjc50 5y ago
It has a bad track record, and will definitely see counter-intervetion by Russia. What sort of intervention did you have in mind? And what's the "then what" plan for the subsequent twenty years?
- kevin_thibedeau 5y ago
  They will turn off the flow of gas to Germany which made a strategic blunder by moving too quickly to abandon nuclear power. Russia has northern europe by the balls every time winter rolls around.
  - dmitriid 5y ago
    In reality it's the other way around. Russia can't afford to cut gas to Europe, it's a very large chunk of Russia's income.
    - markonen 5y ago
      Sounds like the parties need each other, then. Could it be that economic links promote peace and stability?
      - dmitriid 5y ago
        > Could it be that economic links promote peace and stability? Indeed, they do. No wonder the EU came out of what were essentially economic alliances.
- petre 5y ago
  The counter intervention was that Putin invited Lukashenko onto his yacht and the Kremlin gave his regime money.
sofixa 5y ago
That hasn't worked well for... decades? Considering how a few of those countries ended up after forced/aided regime change, like Iraq, Lybia, Syria, why would anyone still think it's a good idea to be taken lightly?
0x_rs 5y ago
Has it ever worked out, if we want to take it as far as believing any of such things have ever been done in good faith? I can't recall any occurrences where an overthrown regime did not snowball into an irrepairable shift of power with the result of countless civilian deaths from the struggling parties involved. Especially so considering the proximity of Russia, I imagine it'd be opportunity to cause extreme ostracization. This is one of the courses of action I think EU is staying away the most from and for good reason.
mantas 5y ago
The only overturning would be Russia either installing a puppet or annexing Belarus altogether. If EU intervenes, Russia will too. And there's much more popular support for Russia than for EU. Belarus people know their economy is a museum of Soviet era remains bankrolled by Russia. Heading West would mean total economic collapse to rebuild the system. They're little North Korea in many more ways than mass media talks about. The sad reality is EU/West can't win here.

throwaway4good 5y ago

I am sure its being done right now. “We” just don’t talk about it.

londons_explore 5y ago

Who will do it? Russia won't, because they're quite happy with the situation. The EU won't, because Russia would intervene with any sign of Belarusian leaders getting 'sick'.

pjc50 5y ago

It has a bad track record, and will definitely see counter-intervetion by Russia. What sort of intervention did you have in mind? And what's the "then what" plan for the subsequent twenty years?

kevin_thibedeau 5y ago
They will turn off the flow of gas to Germany which made a strategic blunder by moving too quickly to abandon nuclear power. Russia has northern europe by the balls every time winter rolls around.
- dmitriid 5y ago
  In reality it's the other way around. Russia can't afford to cut gas to Europe, it's a very large chunk of Russia's income.
  - markonen 5y ago
    Sounds like the parties need each other, then. Could it be that economic links promote peace and stability?
    - dmitriid 5y ago
      > Could it be that economic links promote peace and stability? Indeed, they do. No wonder the EU came out of what were essentially economic alliances.
petre 5y ago
The counter intervention was that Putin invited Lukashenko onto his yacht and the Kremlin gave his regime money.

sofixa 5y ago

That hasn't worked well for... decades? Considering how a few of those countries ended up after forced/aided regime change, like Iraq, Lybia, Syria, why would anyone still think it's a good idea to be taken lightly?

0x_rs 5y ago

Has it ever worked out, if we want to take it as far as believing any of such things have ever been done in good faith? I can't recall any occurrences where an overthrown regime did not snowball into an irrepairable shift of power with the result of countless civilian deaths from the struggling parties involved. Especially so considering the proximity of Russia, I imagine it'd be opportunity to cause extreme ostracization. This is one of the courses of action I think EU is staying away the most from and for good reason.

mantas 5y ago

The only overturning would be Russia either installing a puppet or annexing Belarus altogether. If EU intervenes, Russia will too. And there's much more popular support for Russia than for EU. Belarus people know their economy is a museum of Soviet era remains bankrolled by Russia. Heading West would mean total economic collapse to rebuild the system. They're little North Korea in many more ways than mass media talks about. The sad reality is EU/West can't win here.