6 ms·

Germany has some of the best youth employment numbers (see chart at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27393190 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27393190)

by ido 5y ago

Germany has some of the best youth employment numbers (see chart at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27393190 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27393190) and yet birth rates are similarly low.

noobermin 5y ago
Yes, low birthrates seem to be a feature or developed states generally.
- usrusr 5y ago
  Just imagine the alternative... a combination of high development and birth rate is how you end up with an early 20th century.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  I think it's the way things need to go to be honest. We need fewer people on this planet, not more. Attrition is one way of doing that.
pcbro141 5y ago
Yeah, low birth rates aren't all about money even though that's important. A lot of it is about culture, which affects women's age at first child which affects how many children a woman will ultimately have. Even with all the incentives (subsidize childcare etc.) you'd still have to modify the harder to modify cultural reasons like people valuing independence, "casual dating"/FWB relationships for years that go nowhere is more common instead of dating with intent to marry, hustle culture/emphasis on career progress, less social pressure/shaming from parents ("why don't you have a husband/wife/kids yet?!"), freedom to "find yourself/travel" or "get sexually experienced/have a ho phase before settling" for years after college, etc. Most people don't want to go from college to marriage and kids right away these days, and a few years of this type of casual dating/exploration after college eats up a lot of prime reproductive years. But these cultural factors are very hard to change especially with the absence of religion/strong communities these days.
- agent008t 5y ago
  First it needs to be shown why higher fertility rates are a good thing.
  - atomicnumber3 5y ago
    A lot of our economic machinery more or less bakes in some big assumptions about the size of the workforce not declining, and we have lots of examples from other countries of what happens when birth rates fall too low (Japan's Lost Decade becoming plural as the birth rate fell and the population aged).
    - agent008t 5y ago
      1. There are a lot of goods where supply is naturally limited. Nice holiday destinations, for example. Good housing in desirable locations is another. Space on public roads. This implies that there is some population size where some notion of real wealth per capita is maximized. That population size may be much lower than 7 billion. 2. Economic growth can be driven by increases in productivity. Automation can massively boost productivity. But at a certain amount of supply of labour, it is cheaper to employ a human than automate the task, even though the automation technology for that task is within reach. So a reduction in supply of manual labour can actually make the economy more automated and efficient.
    - anotherman554 5y ago
      Your idea that Japan's lost decade was caused or extended by a low birth rate doesn't sound right to me... and the first two results in a search engine don't support your claims. It would also not appear to be provable or disprovable. The lost decade certainly wasn't caused by demographics, and there's no alternative universe Japan that encountered those same economic conditions but many more babies were made.
    - reedjosh 5y ago
      For detractors... Social Security in the US is one example. It literally depends on having a larger input base than the output. The expectation of GDP growth is another, but without population growth, it's unlikely to be realized perpetually. I'm fine with that, but our over-leveraged financial system isn't.
411111111111111 5y ago
While true, it kinda hides another issue as well. Salary hasn't really improved in almost 15 yrs now, so youths that are currently employed make barely more than the existential minimum. Germany has issues as well, even though that specific statistic looks good
- throwaway210222 5y ago
  > so youths that are currently employed make barely more than the existential minimum. Designer clothing and smartphones are the existential minimum?
bedane 5y ago
germany has working poor

by ido 5y ago

Germany has some of the best youth employment numbers (see chart at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27393190 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27393190) and yet birth rates are similarly low.

noobermin 5y ago

Yes, low birthrates seem to be a feature or developed states generally.

usrusr 5y ago
Just imagine the alternative... a combination of high development and birth rate is how you end up with an early 20th century.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
I think it's the way things need to go to be honest. We need fewer people on this planet, not more. Attrition is one way of doing that.

pcbro141 5y ago

Yeah, low birth rates aren't all about money even though that's important. A lot of it is about culture, which affects women's age at first child which affects how many children a woman will ultimately have. Even with all the incentives (subsidize childcare etc.) you'd still have to modify the harder to modify cultural reasons like people valuing independence, "casual dating"/FWB relationships for years that go nowhere is more common instead of dating with intent to marry, hustle culture/emphasis on career progress, less social pressure/shaming from parents ("why don't you have a husband/wife/kids yet?!"), freedom to "find yourself/travel" or "get sexually experienced/have a ho phase before settling" for years after college, etc. Most people don't want to go from college to marriage and kids right away these days, and a few years of this type of casual dating/exploration after college eats up a lot of prime reproductive years. But these cultural factors are very hard to change especially with the absence of religion/strong communities these days.

agent008t 5y ago
First it needs to be shown why higher fertility rates are a good thing.
- atomicnumber3 5y ago
  A lot of our economic machinery more or less bakes in some big assumptions about the size of the workforce not declining, and we have lots of examples from other countries of what happens when birth rates fall too low (Japan's Lost Decade becoming plural as the birth rate fell and the population aged).
  - agent008t 5y ago
    1. There are a lot of goods where supply is naturally limited. Nice holiday destinations, for example. Good housing in desirable locations is another. Space on public roads. This implies that there is some population size where some notion of real wealth per capita is maximized. That population size may be much lower than 7 billion. 2. Economic growth can be driven by increases in productivity. Automation can massively boost productivity. But at a certain amount of supply of labour, it is cheaper to employ a human than automate the task, even though the automation technology for that task is within reach. So a reduction in supply of manual labour can actually make the economy more automated and efficient.
  - anotherman554 5y ago
    Your idea that Japan's lost decade was caused or extended by a low birth rate doesn't sound right to me... and the first two results in a search engine don't support your claims. It would also not appear to be provable or disprovable. The lost decade certainly wasn't caused by demographics, and there's no alternative universe Japan that encountered those same economic conditions but many more babies were made.
  - reedjosh 5y ago
    For detractors... Social Security in the US is one example. It literally depends on having a larger input base than the output. The expectation of GDP growth is another, but without population growth, it's unlikely to be realized perpetually. I'm fine with that, but our over-leveraged financial system isn't.

411111111111111 5y ago

While true, it kinda hides another issue as well. Salary hasn't really improved in almost 15 yrs now, so youths that are currently employed make barely more than the existential minimum. Germany has issues as well, even though that specific statistic looks good

throwaway210222 5y ago
> so youths that are currently employed make barely more than the existential minimum. Designer clothing and smartphones are the existential minimum?

bedane 5y ago

germany has working poor