Your Third-order fails to account for the passage of time: When the truth comes out, enough time will have passed and the current leadership will be the former

Your Third-order fails to account for the passage of time: When the truth comes out, enough time will have passed and the current leadership will be the former leadership. The next generation of leaders will vow to be better and carry on, saving face. See Gulf of Tonkin, first and second Iraq-US-war, etc. I think the conclusion will always be to lie to the public, because the higher-order-effects almost always have long delays.