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It's dangerous to engage in higher-order thinking, lest you fail to achieve the highest order: First-order: "The evidence points to a lab leak." Second-order:
by dTal 5y ago
It's dangerous to engage in higher-order thinking, lest you fail to achieve the highest order:
First-order: "The evidence points to a lab leak."
Second-order: "We can't say it's a lab leak, it'll cause mayhem. Let's say it was a bat."
Third-order: "We can't lie to people about something this important. When the truth comes out eventually, it'll be mayhem squared and they won't trust us next time."
- corty 5y agoYour Third-order fails to account for the passage of time: When the truth comes out, enough time will have passed and the current leadership will be the former leadership. The next generation of leaders will vow to be better and carry on, saving face. See Gulf of Tonkin, first and second Iraq-US-war, etc. I think the conclusion will always be to lie to the public, because the higher-order-effects almost always have long delays.