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If I was the president and I knew it was a lab leak, I would probably yell at Xi Xinping in private but then claim it was a bat in public. To allow them to sav

If I was the president and I knew it was a lab leak, I would probably yell at Xi Xinping in private but then claim it was a bat in public. To allow them to save face. In fact let’s game this out: Option 1) say it was a bat Option 2) say it was a lab leak If option 2, then xinping has to either acknowledge and apologize, or deny it. Option 1) acknowledge it. But then he gets removed as leader since the Chinese people will see him as weak. Option 2) deny it. This is what he would do. If he denies it, then probably the USA will apply some kind of sanctions on China, which again stirs up tensions. But China can’t do anything about it because of US military superiority. So how does that end? China is humiliated at having sanctions and in their view, false accusations leveled against them. They respond with a huge arms buildup and this results in a reciprocal buildup in the USA. Better to just let them save face. Edit: I’m not saying that I am going to lie about this. I’m not the president and this is all hypothetical musing. More to the point I don’t know if it really was a bat or if it was actually a lab leak. I’m just trying to imagine what the president might possibly be thinking right now.

dTal 5y ago
It's dangerous to engage in higher-order thinking, lest you fail to achieve the highest order: First-order: "The evidence points to a lab leak." Second-order: "We can't say it's a lab leak, it'll cause mayhem. Let's say it was a bat." Third-order: "We can't lie to people about something this important. When the truth comes out eventually, it'll be mayhem squared and they won't trust us next time."
- corty 5y ago
  Your Third-order fails to account for the passage of time: When the truth comes out, enough time will have passed and the current leadership will be the former leadership. The next generation of leaders will vow to be better and carry on, saving face. See Gulf of Tonkin, first and second Iraq-US-war, etc. I think the conclusion will always be to lie to the public, because the higher-order-effects almost always have long delays.
totalZero 5y ago
Nah. You should tell the truth on this topic, not only for normative reasons but also because it's going to come out anyway. The whole world is watching this virus. The next hegemonic rivalry in the world is already unfolding between China and the USA, and much of its battleground is found in the third world. Those countries are all evaluating the costs and benefits of aligning with China versus aligning with the United States. China and the USA are going to build up arms anyway, so why tell lies that benefit China?
- corty 5y ago
  I agree. A confrontation between the US and China, as well as China and its neighbors, is inevitable. There are just too many factors forcing this, Taiwan, the South China Sea, China's economic slowdown, USs' economic slowdown, the race for influence and resources in Africa and South America. Maybe (hopefully) it will just be another cold war. But being able to present China as the bad guy early on would be more valuable to the US than having China save face. The only exception to this would be if the US were of the opinion that more time was needed before a higher level of confrontation could be entered: in that case, appeasement and face-saving would buy time. However, I don't see how this could be the case, the US is bringing military resources back home within a few months, probably not to decomission them. US military strength and availability is currently at a peak. And China is still in the process of building up military strength, which will take time since their problem is old equipment to be replaced and new equipment to be built. So for the US, an early confrontation would be advantageous.
  - fallingfrog 5y ago
    No, it’s not inevitable. That’s poisonous thinking. We can always de-escalate. That’s the kind of stupidity that led to the First World War, and the First World War led to the Second World War. None of it had to happen. There were always other options. Edit: We should immediately attack China because they’re a bunch of godless communists! The CCP is a murderous regime trying to develop biological weapons to murder everyone! Better to just have at it now while we still have the bigger army! Why not just use nukes! Every time anyone mentions China for any reason we just end up in the dumbest flame wars imaginable.
fallingfrog 5y ago
If you think that allowing an adversary to get away with a lie if it avoids a war is unacceptable because you are angry and want revenge, let me gently suggest to you that you are not the adult in the room in this situation. A planet covered with rival armies all bickering with each other and a city full of gangs all running around shooting at each other are no different. Or the hatfields and McCoys engaging in tit for tat shootings. We really do as a species act like stupid children. If it was a lab leak, nobody ought to be doing these insanely stupid experiments in the first place. Including us. That’s the takeaway lesson. Not “I’m angry and I can’t control my feelings! Let’s have a war!”

dTal 5y ago

It's dangerous to engage in higher-order thinking, lest you fail to achieve the highest order: First-order: "The evidence points to a lab leak." Second-order: "We can't say it's a lab leak, it'll cause mayhem. Let's say it was a bat." Third-order: "We can't lie to people about something this important. When the truth comes out eventually, it'll be mayhem squared and they won't trust us next time."

corty 5y ago
Your Third-order fails to account for the passage of time: When the truth comes out, enough time will have passed and the current leadership will be the former leadership. The next generation of leaders will vow to be better and carry on, saving face. See Gulf of Tonkin, first and second Iraq-US-war, etc. I think the conclusion will always be to lie to the public, because the higher-order-effects almost always have long delays.

totalZero 5y ago

Nah. You should tell the truth on this topic, not only for normative reasons but also because it's going to come out anyway. The whole world is watching this virus. The next hegemonic rivalry in the world is already unfolding between China and the USA, and much of its battleground is found in the third world. Those countries are all evaluating the costs and benefits of aligning with China versus aligning with the United States. China and the USA are going to build up arms anyway, so why tell lies that benefit China?

corty 5y ago
I agree. A confrontation between the US and China, as well as China and its neighbors, is inevitable. There are just too many factors forcing this, Taiwan, the South China Sea, China's economic slowdown, USs' economic slowdown, the race for influence and resources in Africa and South America. Maybe (hopefully) it will just be another cold war. But being able to present China as the bad guy early on would be more valuable to the US than having China save face. The only exception to this would be if the US were of the opinion that more time was needed before a higher level of confrontation could be entered: in that case, appeasement and face-saving would buy time. However, I don't see how this could be the case, the US is bringing military resources back home within a few months, probably not to decomission them. US military strength and availability is currently at a peak. And China is still in the process of building up military strength, which will take time since their problem is old equipment to be replaced and new equipment to be built. So for the US, an early confrontation would be advantageous.
- fallingfrog 5y ago
  No, it’s not inevitable. That’s poisonous thinking. We can always de-escalate. That’s the kind of stupidity that led to the First World War, and the First World War led to the Second World War. None of it had to happen. There were always other options. Edit: We should immediately attack China because they’re a bunch of godless communists! The CCP is a murderous regime trying to develop biological weapons to murder everyone! Better to just have at it now while we still have the bigger army! Why not just use nukes! Every time anyone mentions China for any reason we just end up in the dumbest flame wars imaginable.

fallingfrog 5y ago

If you think that allowing an adversary to get away with a lie if it avoids a war is unacceptable because you are angry and want revenge, let me gently suggest to you that you are not the adult in the room in this situation. A planet covered with rival armies all bickering with each other and a city full of gangs all running around shooting at each other are no different. Or the hatfields and McCoys engaging in tit for tat shootings. We really do as a species act like stupid children. If it was a lab leak, nobody ought to be doing these insanely stupid experiments in the first place. Including us. That’s the takeaway lesson. Not “I’m angry and I can’t control my feelings! Let’s have a war!”