3 ms·

Your perspective on the pros and cons in this dispute are very personal and don't involve a lot of geopolitical factors. The ability to go to a few islands for

Your perspective on the pros and cons in this dispute are very personal and don't involve a lot of geopolitical factors. The ability to go to a few islands for holiday is not a significant geopolitical benefit. Creating an atmosphere of hate for your resident foreigners is not a serious geopolitical disadvantage (citizens of both China and USA are hated in many places yet they both remain powerful and wealthy countries). Countries don't threaten expensive and risky military action because they are worried about a lack of friendly holiday destinations. The discovery of important resources like natural gas and fish near eg. the Senkaku Islands seems more on the mark but is also more serious than "you can just buy these useful resources". Obviously a substantial amount of resources will cost a lot of resources to buy if you don't own it, but also resource ownership fuels domestic economic growth that supports the happiness of your citizens and strengthens your ability to defend and sponsor your interests in future conflicts. Either way, settling this conflict by surrendering these islands will not on their own establish friendly relations between China and its neighbors. China is in deeper economic competition with countries like Japan beyond these islands. More conflict will need to be resolved before you can claim that settling the island dispute will result in a foreign but friendly neighbor.

henearkr 5y ago
I was not clear, I am not advocating for any of these countries to change the status quo, I'm just advocating for them to accept the status quo. That's why my arguments look like shallow, it's because indeed it really is a shallow problem. Japan would gain everything to accept that these Russian-controlled islands are Russian after all, China would better accept that Senkakus are not Chinese, and so on. They do not loose anything, and they -- as I said -- gain the privilege to be able to spend their vacations there, buy resources extracted there, and many new friends as well as a largely more peaceful atmosphere towards their resident foreigners. The only reason they don't do that is an irrational one. As I said, again, it's just to not loose face. Lol.
- themacguffinman 5y ago
  > They do not loose anything Yes they do. Although the Senkaku Islands' "status quo" is controlled by Japan, China loses potential wealth if they cede control of the islands. Not gaining potential resources is practically indistinguishable from losing resources. Obviously you can't count everything as "potential wealth", but China evidently thinks it has a realistic shot at claiming the wealth of these islands and is rationally reluctant to lose such a practical opportunity.
  - henearkr 5y ago
    This is an interesting conversation, thank you. You are considering what I say and replying to it rationally, that's refreshing, as it's rarer and rarer on HN for this kind of hot subjects. My point of view is that a change of the status quo is an outlandish impossibility. It would mean a really nasty, bloody conflict, and it is not even sure that anything good would result for the winner in total. This is based on this assumption that I only considered either 1/ they keep disputing the status quo (but not changing it) or 2/ they accept it and build on it. Maybe it is not very clear for the Senkakus example, as Japan is only "loosely" controlling it. But it's much more obvious for the Northern Territories, the islands North of Japan that are controlled by Russia: Russia has bases, even cities on it, and is plentifully in control.

henearkr 5y ago

I was not clear, I am not advocating for any of these countries to change the status quo, I'm just advocating for them to accept the status quo. That's why my arguments look like shallow, it's because indeed it really is a shallow problem. Japan would gain everything to accept that these Russian-controlled islands are Russian after all, China would better accept that Senkakus are not Chinese, and so on. They do not loose anything, and they -- as I said -- gain the privilege to be able to spend their vacations there, buy resources extracted there, and many new friends as well as a largely more peaceful atmosphere towards their resident foreigners. The only reason they don't do that is an irrational one. As I said, again, it's just to not loose face. Lol.

themacguffinman 5y ago
> They do not loose anything Yes they do. Although the Senkaku Islands' "status quo" is controlled by Japan, China loses potential wealth if they cede control of the islands. Not gaining potential resources is practically indistinguishable from losing resources. Obviously you can't count everything as "potential wealth", but China evidently thinks it has a realistic shot at claiming the wealth of these islands and is rationally reluctant to lose such a practical opportunity.
- henearkr 5y ago
  This is an interesting conversation, thank you. You are considering what I say and replying to it rationally, that's refreshing, as it's rarer and rarer on HN for this kind of hot subjects. My point of view is that a change of the status quo is an outlandish impossibility. It would mean a really nasty, bloody conflict, and it is not even sure that anything good would result for the winner in total. This is based on this assumption that I only considered either 1/ they keep disputing the status quo (but not changing it) or 2/ they accept it and build on it. Maybe it is not very clear for the Senkakus example, as Japan is only "loosely" controlling it. But it's much more obvious for the Northern Territories, the islands North of Japan that are controlled by Russia: Russia has bases, even cities on it, and is plentifully in control.