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> This is not entirely true. Lower SAT scores are correlated with dropping out of certain majors at much higher rates. This statement needs more careful examin

> This is not entirely true. Lower SAT scores are correlated with dropping out of certain majors at much higher rates. This statement needs more careful examination for two reasons. First, students drop out for various reasons that are not academic, including personal reasons. It's possible that if you come from a lower-income family, your family circumstances change such that you can no longer attend school. Even those who dropout for academic reasons may have their academics affected by their personal life, and without personal difficulty they may have been able to handle the coursework. So such a finding would not contradict my claim that most people have the ability to handle the coursework. Second, because of Simpson's Paradox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox). When you aggregate all students, you may find that lower SAT scores correlate with high dropout rates, but that would also be consistent with a school environment that discriminates against BIPOC. (Just because the admissions environment attempts to compensate for discrimination by measuring "growth" doesn't mean that the schools themselves cannot exhibit elitism and/or racism.) Your article doesn't provide any data (so I have no evidence to support this), but it's possible that if you separated SAT scores out by race, the score has little to no effect on dropout rates.

Manuel_D 5y ago
The relationship between academic preparedness and persistence in STEM majors held true between White, Asian, Black, and Latin students. It also held true across class and income. A white, wealthy trust fund student with lower test scores is just as likely to change from a STEM major to another as a poor BIPOC student. In other words, a student with the same scores had the same likelihood of dropping out across any race. This is much more consistent with an academic testing system that accurately predicts academic ability. Is it possible that it's actually a predictor of who will predict later extenuating circumstances inhibiting their studies? And one that works with remarkable consistency across all demographics? Maybe but I feel confident enough in the former that I'm going to expect to see data on those circumstances to which you allude before shifting conclusions.
- tylerhou 5y ago
  I going to need a citation for the claim in your first paragraph. I've skimmed through multiple papers (including the one you linked) and I have not seen an analysis of STEM dropout rates broken down by SAT scores and race. https://www.google.com/search?q=SAT+score+STEM+attrition+correlation+race https://www.google.com/search?q=SAT+score+STEM+attrition+cor... Also, such a paper should analyze dropout rates at elite colleges, as it's possible that the correlation degrades after a certain threshold.
  - Manuel_D 5y ago
    The paper was cited in the article: https://perma.cc/8M8L-GCUC https://perma.cc/8M8L-GCUC And yes, it is limited to an elite college (Duke University).
    - tylerhou 5y ago
      I don't think that paper says what you claim it says. From the conclusion: > However, even though we have shown substantial evidence that Duke does indeed possess private information about the student’s future performance, we cannot conclude that there is mismatch. It (claims to) disprove the hypothesis that there is no mismatch because Duke possess no private information, as private information is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for mismatch.
      - Manuel_D 5y ago
        The study didn't conclude that there was mismatch, because it didn't measure whether or not students chose differently when given information on their likely academic performance given their level of ability: > In sum, Duke’s private information on student performance is important beyond the student’s grade point average, affecting both the student’s subjective well-being as well as the likelihood of persisting in a difficult major. It is important to note, however, that we have still only established that some of the necessary conditions for mismatch are met. For mismatch to exist, information must not only be important but the revelation of the information must change the institution the individual would have chosen to attend. Hence, even if individuals find out they are not as academically strong as they thought, the information still may not have changed their decisions. Let's not lose track of what I initially claimed: that lower levels of academic preparedness lead to students changing out of science/engineering majors, and that this was consistent across race. The study did find that this was true. And this was limited to students at an elite university. Mismatch is about what students would have done when given this information, which is not directly related to my claim

Manuel_D 5y ago

The relationship between academic preparedness and persistence in STEM majors held true between White, Asian, Black, and Latin students. It also held true across class and income. A white, wealthy trust fund student with lower test scores is just as likely to change from a STEM major to another as a poor BIPOC student. In other words, a student with the same scores had the same likelihood of dropping out across any race. This is much more consistent with an academic testing system that accurately predicts academic ability. Is it possible that it's actually a predictor of who will predict later extenuating circumstances inhibiting their studies? And one that works with remarkable consistency across all demographics? Maybe but I feel confident enough in the former that I'm going to expect to see data on those circumstances to which you allude before shifting conclusions.

tylerhou 5y ago
I going to need a citation for the claim in your first paragraph. I've skimmed through multiple papers (including the one you linked) and I have not seen an analysis of STEM dropout rates broken down by SAT scores and race. https://www.google.com/search?q=SAT+score+STEM+attrition+correlation+race https://www.google.com/search?q=SAT+score+STEM+attrition+cor... Also, such a paper should analyze dropout rates at elite colleges, as it's possible that the correlation degrades after a certain threshold.
- Manuel_D 5y ago
  The paper was cited in the article: https://perma.cc/8M8L-GCUC https://perma.cc/8M8L-GCUC And yes, it is limited to an elite college (Duke University).
  - tylerhou 5y ago
    I don't think that paper says what you claim it says. From the conclusion: > However, even though we have shown substantial evidence that Duke does indeed possess private information about the student’s future performance, we cannot conclude that there is mismatch. It (claims to) disprove the hypothesis that there is no mismatch because Duke possess no private information, as private information is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for mismatch.
    - Manuel_D 5y ago
      The study didn't conclude that there was mismatch, because it didn't measure whether or not students chose differently when given information on their likely academic performance given their level of ability: > In sum, Duke’s private information on student performance is important beyond the student’s grade point average, affecting both the student’s subjective well-being as well as the likelihood of persisting in a difficult major. It is important to note, however, that we have still only established that some of the necessary conditions for mismatch are met. For mismatch to exist, information must not only be important but the revelation of the information must change the institution the individual would have chosen to attend. Hence, even if individuals find out they are not as academically strong as they thought, the information still may not have changed their decisions. Let's not lose track of what I initially claimed: that lower levels of academic preparedness lead to students changing out of science/engineering majors, and that this was consistent across race. The study did find that this was true. And this was limited to students at an elite university. Mismatch is about what students would have done when given this information, which is not directly related to my claim