5 ms·

Those same people were tested for antibodies and they were negative. Or I guess that is also part of the cover up.

jkhdigital 5y ago
...yes? Listen, if you are prepared to seriously consider a lab leak, then you have to assume that any public statements from Chinese authorities are dubious. I’m pretty sure my own government makes dubious statements all the time so it’s not hard to imagine.
- peter422 5y ago
  I’m seriously considering it and put it higher than 0%. But if you think your hypothesis is the most likely outcome (>50%), and your defense at any evidence that discounts your view is that it is a giant and incredible cover up by the Chinese government then I guess we have very different priors about how easy it is to pull off massive conspiracies. And also remember the people that leaked that 2-3 employees were hospitalized without any additional details or evidence also had an agenda.
  - chrisco255 5y ago
    > I guess we have very different priors about how easy it is to pull off massive conspiracies. Is it that difficult when you manipulate the media and control the narrative? This is why the principles of free speech are as important as the law itself.
  - tripletao 5y ago
    Are you familiar with the Sverdlovsk anthrax leak? The Soviets successfully blamed that on tainted meat, and the truth wasn't revealed until after the fall of the Soviet Union. Before that, the Western scientific consensus agreed with the Soviets, discounting speculation otherwise as a conspiracy theory, with reasoning similar to yours above. (For emphasis, nothing above is meant to imply that SARS-CoV-2 was a bioweapon. An accident in reckless but not malicious basic research seems far more likely to me, and natural origin certainly hasn't been excluded either.)
    - peter422 5y ago
      I’m not saying it is impossible, I’m saying it is not likely. I think it is great for people to research the origins and dig into all the details and try to find the truth. But if the virus were of natural origin, which to me is the most likely truth, then all of this talk and speculation are just maligning completely innocent people. And many of the comments here are maligning left and right.
      - tripletao 5y ago
        The tone of many comments is certainly unfortunate, and we certainly shouldn't go from unjustified confidence in natural origin to unjustified confidence in lab origin; I'd put the odds near a coin flip myself. That's perhaps a backlash to the last year, though, during which anyone pushing for investigation of this reasonable hypothesis was maligned as a conspiracy theorist or worse. For example, here's a message from an academic virologist quoted frequently in the mainstream media with a wide Twitter following, who calls Yuri Deigin's summary of the evidence for lab origin a "Turner Diary-esque manifesto". (The Turner Diaries is a novel about a race war, popular among violent white supremacists including Timothy McVeigh, the Oklahoma City bomber.) https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1346232208206381058 https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/13462322082063810... That kind of rhetoric is nothing unusual from anonymous Internet trolls, or even from politicians. It was strange to see from scientists, though. I don't think the backlash is good, but it's not surprising. Finally, if the CCP wanted to stop this speculation, then they could allow an open investigation, giving international scientists full access to the WIV's documents and samples. Perhaps the reason that the CCP hasn't is just an authoritarian state's reflexive secrecy, and there's nothing to actually cover up; but if that's the case, then they have only themselves to blame for the suspicion.
        peter422 5y ago
        There was an investigation! International teams went over data and samples! Researchers were questioned! All of this is public and in reports. The problem with saying it is a cover up is that no matter what is provided you can just say nothing is enough. Can we get more details about how we know for sure that 2-3 researchers were actually hospitalized? Oh, it’s classified, eh? Well I can’t imagine the US ever falsifying intelligence. I’m not suggesting that the US is lying and CCP isn’t. But I think if you rationally look at the data and the reports and listen to the people that did the investigation they do not believe in the conspiracy. And yes, they are biased, but at least they have arguments and actual data to defend their position.
  - chasd00 5y ago
    I would say pulling off this massive conspiracy is looking less and less likely.
  - calsy 5y ago
    You obviously have no idea how much control and influence the Chinese government exerts over its citizens. I really don't know how people can still be so blatantly naive about how communist parties operate and how they maintain power over their citizens.
  - myfavoritedog 5y ago
    your view is that it is a giant and incredible cover up by the Chinese government Really? My starting point is that the Chinese government would likely cover up being blamed for a deadly pandemic that has killed millions. They haven't even admitted their COVID death statistics since early on last year: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda759474... They stopped counting COVID deaths after the first 100k or so... in February.
_wldu 5y ago
Covid antibodies may or may not be produced and if they are seem to fade quickly. This has been widely researched and documented [1]. T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 are a better indicator of exposure [2]. [1] - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179 [2] - https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-authorizes-cell-test-game-changer-covid-19/story?id=76318248 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-authorizes-cell-test-game-...
- arrrg 5y ago
  If several people were hospitalized that means several dozen to hundred people in the lab actually had COVID (hospitalization rates are low, especially among people who haven’t reached retirement age yet). Testing was done on those people and nothing was found. This means we would be looking at a huge coverup, not false negative testing results.
planetree 5y ago
That you, Daszak?

...yes? Listen, if you are prepared to seriously consider a lab leak, then you have to assume that any public statements from Chinese authorities are dubious. I’m pretty sure my own government makes dubious statements all the time so it’s not hard to imagine.

peter422 5y ago
I’m seriously considering it and put it higher than 0%. But if you think your hypothesis is the most likely outcome (>50%), and your defense at any evidence that discounts your view is that it is a giant and incredible cover up by the Chinese government then I guess we have very different priors about how easy it is to pull off massive conspiracies. And also remember the people that leaked that 2-3 employees were hospitalized without any additional details or evidence also had an agenda.
- chrisco255 5y ago
  > I guess we have very different priors about how easy it is to pull off massive conspiracies. Is it that difficult when you manipulate the media and control the narrative? This is why the principles of free speech are as important as the law itself.
- tripletao 5y ago
  Are you familiar with the Sverdlovsk anthrax leak? The Soviets successfully blamed that on tainted meat, and the truth wasn't revealed until after the fall of the Soviet Union. Before that, the Western scientific consensus agreed with the Soviets, discounting speculation otherwise as a conspiracy theory, with reasoning similar to yours above. (For emphasis, nothing above is meant to imply that SARS-CoV-2 was a bioweapon. An accident in reckless but not malicious basic research seems far more likely to me, and natural origin certainly hasn't been excluded either.)
  - peter422 5y ago
    I’m not saying it is impossible, I’m saying it is not likely. I think it is great for people to research the origins and dig into all the details and try to find the truth. But if the virus were of natural origin, which to me is the most likely truth, then all of this talk and speculation are just maligning completely innocent people. And many of the comments here are maligning left and right.
    - tripletao 5y ago
      The tone of many comments is certainly unfortunate, and we certainly shouldn't go from unjustified confidence in natural origin to unjustified confidence in lab origin; I'd put the odds near a coin flip myself. That's perhaps a backlash to the last year, though, during which anyone pushing for investigation of this reasonable hypothesis was maligned as a conspiracy theorist or worse. For example, here's a message from an academic virologist quoted frequently in the mainstream media with a wide Twitter following, who calls Yuri Deigin's summary of the evidence for lab origin a "Turner Diary-esque manifesto". (The Turner Diaries is a novel about a race war, popular among violent white supremacists including Timothy McVeigh, the Oklahoma City bomber.) https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1346232208206381058 https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/13462322082063810... That kind of rhetoric is nothing unusual from anonymous Internet trolls, or even from politicians. It was strange to see from scientists, though. I don't think the backlash is good, but it's not surprising. Finally, if the CCP wanted to stop this speculation, then they could allow an open investigation, giving international scientists full access to the WIV's documents and samples. Perhaps the reason that the CCP hasn't is just an authoritarian state's reflexive secrecy, and there's nothing to actually cover up; but if that's the case, then they have only themselves to blame for the suspicion.
      - peter422 5y ago
        There was an investigation! International teams went over data and samples! Researchers were questioned! All of this is public and in reports. The problem with saying it is a cover up is that no matter what is provided you can just say nothing is enough. Can we get more details about how we know for sure that 2-3 researchers were actually hospitalized? Oh, it’s classified, eh? Well I can’t imagine the US ever falsifying intelligence. I’m not suggesting that the US is lying and CCP isn’t. But I think if you rationally look at the data and the reports and listen to the people that did the investigation they do not believe in the conspiracy. And yes, they are biased, but at least they have arguments and actual data to defend their position.
- chasd00 5y ago
  I would say pulling off this massive conspiracy is looking less and less likely.
- calsy 5y ago
  You obviously have no idea how much control and influence the Chinese government exerts over its citizens. I really don't know how people can still be so blatantly naive about how communist parties operate and how they maintain power over their citizens.
- myfavoritedog 5y ago
  your view is that it is a giant and incredible cover up by the Chinese government Really? My starting point is that the Chinese government would likely cover up being blamed for a deadly pandemic that has killed millions. They haven't even admitted their COVID death statistics since early on last year: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda759474... They stopped counting COVID deaths after the first 100k or so... in February.

_wldu 5y ago

Covid antibodies may or may not be produced and if they are seem to fade quickly. This has been widely researched and documented [1]. T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 are a better indicator of exposure [2]. [1] - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179 [2] - https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-authorizes-cell-test-game-changer-covid-19/story?id=76318248 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-authorizes-cell-test-game-...

arrrg 5y ago
If several people were hospitalized that means several dozen to hundred people in the lab actually had COVID (hospitalization rates are low, especially among people who haven’t reached retirement age yet). Testing was done on those people and nothing was found. This means we would be looking at a huge coverup, not false negative testing results.

planetree 5y ago

That you, Daszak?