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Difference is if corporations and funds can't hold bitcoin/crypto - you're back to $1/BTC. The whole value proposition of BTC hype bubble bursts if it's illegal

Difference is if corporations and funds can't hold bitcoin/crypto - you're back to $1/BTC. The whole value proposition of BTC hype bubble bursts if it's illegal in a major market like USA. Don't doubt some cyberpunk nuts will keep playing with it.

ocdtrekkie 5y ago
And presumably if nobody can easily convert large quantities of crypto to and from USD. Sure, you find an international exchange, willing to give you some other fiat, but American KYC laws are still going to be chasing you all over the globe.
- daxfohl 5y ago
  I mean, it could still be used as an IOU of sorts for illegal activities. But if this is the sole remaining use case, I'd imagine there are better means for this than hosting on a public ledger.
dcolkitt 5y ago
We have plenty of historical and current examples of governments imposing capital controls to restrict access to foreign currency. Very rarely does it result in the market price of the foreign currency going down. Usually quite the opposite. Heck, even in American history we once tried to ban private ownership of gold bullion. The black market price of gold rose substantially.
- reader_mode 5y ago
  > We have plenty of historical and current examples of governments imposing capital controls to restrict access to foreign currency. Very rarely does it result in the market price of the foreign currency going down. Usually quite the opposite. That's a nonsense comparison. When governments impose capital controls it means their currency is already sinking and it's a last ditch attempt to prevent this inevitable scenario. BTC valuation is entirely based on narratives about how it's going to replace standard currency in whatever story is popular, and from what I can see right now it's being pumped up by funds who can't find other good investments in this markets and are willing to play with crypto. If it's illegal for US funds/citizens to hold it/be involved with it - the selloff alone would kill the market instantaneously.
  - dcolkitt 5y ago
    The US only constitutes 15% of global GDP. There's no reason to think that US investors represent an outsized position in crypto holdings. American funds may have large positions, but that's largely because the American asset managers tend to attract substantial overseas positions. There's no reason to think that, say a Japanese pension fund, that's invested in Grayscale is going to say, "oh shoot, guess there's no possible way to allocate to this asset class now". They'll just reinvest that same allocation in a UK or Caymans domiciled fund. If anything the 85% of crypto investors who aren't invested, will most likely hoard in anticipation of the policy being reversed. For better or worse the US government has extremely low credibility when it comes to long-term policy consistency. Almost any US policy can simply be waited out until Congress/White House flips parties.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > The US only constitutes 15% of global GDP. There's no reason to think that US investors represent an outsized position in crypto holdings. Holdings would seem to be more reasonably assumed to be proportional to wealth [0], not GDP. The US has a significantly larger share of global wealth than it does of GDP. [0] or maybe more-than-linearly related, since less-wealthy people will have more of their wealth in directly-used assets like tools, vehicles, and homes.
    - reader_mode 5y ago
      You bitcoin guys are hilarious with your narratives. "If it crashes it's just going to be an opportunity for the rest to get in"... Bitcoin market swings on Elon Musks tweets, a full scale ban in the US would obliterate it.
NtGuy25 5y ago
Monero is banned by nearly every US exchange, and hard to buy with USD as a US National. It still maintains value and has seen growth. While BTC may burst, it wouldn't go to $1/BTC. it would go to a small percentage of what it is now, but still retain some value.
- selsta 5y ago
  Kraken lists Monero in US. Other US exchanges don't have Monero listed, but that does not mean that they "banned" it.
- reader_mode 5y ago
  Yeah, not sure what it would be worth, obviously US is just one part of the BTC story, 1$ is just a random number to say it would crash super hard.
- mariojv 5y ago
  How is it hard to buy with USD as a US national? I haven't bought any Monero, but I saw this website the other day: https://localmonero.co/ https://localmonero.co/ If that's legitimate, it seems pretty easy.
  - young_unixer 5y ago
    There's also blocktrades.us I buy Monero by buying Litecoin at any exchange and then swap it for Monero using blocktrades. Notably, Binance allows buying Monero directly.

ocdtrekkie 5y ago

And presumably if nobody can easily convert large quantities of crypto to and from USD. Sure, you find an international exchange, willing to give you some other fiat, but American KYC laws are still going to be chasing you all over the globe.

daxfohl 5y ago
I mean, it could still be used as an IOU of sorts for illegal activities. But if this is the sole remaining use case, I'd imagine there are better means for this than hosting on a public ledger.

dcolkitt 5y ago

We have plenty of historical and current examples of governments imposing capital controls to restrict access to foreign currency. Very rarely does it result in the market price of the foreign currency going down. Usually quite the opposite. Heck, even in American history we once tried to ban private ownership of gold bullion. The black market price of gold rose substantially.

reader_mode 5y ago
> We have plenty of historical and current examples of governments imposing capital controls to restrict access to foreign currency. Very rarely does it result in the market price of the foreign currency going down. Usually quite the opposite. That's a nonsense comparison. When governments impose capital controls it means their currency is already sinking and it's a last ditch attempt to prevent this inevitable scenario. BTC valuation is entirely based on narratives about how it's going to replace standard currency in whatever story is popular, and from what I can see right now it's being pumped up by funds who can't find other good investments in this markets and are willing to play with crypto. If it's illegal for US funds/citizens to hold it/be involved with it - the selloff alone would kill the market instantaneously.
- dcolkitt 5y ago
  The US only constitutes 15% of global GDP. There's no reason to think that US investors represent an outsized position in crypto holdings. American funds may have large positions, but that's largely because the American asset managers tend to attract substantial overseas positions. There's no reason to think that, say a Japanese pension fund, that's invested in Grayscale is going to say, "oh shoot, guess there's no possible way to allocate to this asset class now". They'll just reinvest that same allocation in a UK or Caymans domiciled fund. If anything the 85% of crypto investors who aren't invested, will most likely hoard in anticipation of the policy being reversed. For better or worse the US government has extremely low credibility when it comes to long-term policy consistency. Almost any US policy can simply be waited out until Congress/White House flips parties.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > The US only constitutes 15% of global GDP. There's no reason to think that US investors represent an outsized position in crypto holdings. Holdings would seem to be more reasonably assumed to be proportional to wealth [0], not GDP. The US has a significantly larger share of global wealth than it does of GDP. [0] or maybe more-than-linearly related, since less-wealthy people will have more of their wealth in directly-used assets like tools, vehicles, and homes.
  - reader_mode 5y ago
    You bitcoin guys are hilarious with your narratives. "If it crashes it's just going to be an opportunity for the rest to get in"... Bitcoin market swings on Elon Musks tweets, a full scale ban in the US would obliterate it.

NtGuy25 5y ago

Monero is banned by nearly every US exchange, and hard to buy with USD as a US National. It still maintains value and has seen growth. While BTC may burst, it wouldn't go to $1/BTC. it would go to a small percentage of what it is now, but still retain some value.

selsta 5y ago
Kraken lists Monero in US. Other US exchanges don't have Monero listed, but that does not mean that they "banned" it.
reader_mode 5y ago
Yeah, not sure what it would be worth, obviously US is just one part of the BTC story, 1$ is just a random number to say it would crash super hard.
mariojv 5y ago
How is it hard to buy with USD as a US national? I haven't bought any Monero, but I saw this website the other day: https://localmonero.co/ https://localmonero.co/ If that's legitimate, it seems pretty easy.
- young_unixer 5y ago
  There's also blocktrades.us I buy Monero by buying Litecoin at any exchange and then swap it for Monero using blocktrades. Notably, Binance allows buying Monero directly.