I think you're right, it's hard to argue they'll do anything near the full extraction playbook that FB/Goog runs because of that diversification, and depending

I think you're right, it's hard to argue they'll do anything near the full extraction playbook that FB/Goog runs because of that diversification, and depending on where the ads are placed, it may not risk the brand much. My guess is app installs will be their target, for several reasons: 1. A lot of the most expensive/lucrative ads are for apps 2. Apple has better data on this - ad networks had to guess at what apps you had and how to attribute, while the iPhone knows with certainty. [1] 3. Apple already sells these ads in the App Store itself, so it stands to reason putting these ads in apps is just another step. 4. With IDFA gone, a lot of popular apps (that they want in the app store) are losing revenue and will be looking for alternate ways to support themselves. Better for the ecosystem that devs are compensated. Apple doesn't need to give ads the Apple treatment in the way they do hardware products; they can do the more 'good enough' TV & Music treatment of leveraging their position to get some low hanging fruit. It'll pay for itself pretty quickly and provide a nice revenue stream. The more strategic value this brings is it gets them a few steps closer to building their own search engine, providing a revenue carrot should they decide to (or need to) break with Google. Creating a search engine isn't exactly in Apple's wheelhouse, but they are shifting toward services and software more and more, it fits well with their privacy-oriented strategy, and Google does still leave a lot to be desired in UX and results. With Apple's very different incentive/revenue structure, there's many decisions they could make differently. [1] Android used to support grabbing the user's app list but that was shut off a few years back.