3 ms·

Joel Spolsky described this technique, calling it Evidence Based Scheduling. I'm surprised that it didn't become more popular. https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2

• diiq 5y ago
  I think Steve McConnell was calling for statistical modelling even earlier than that. Definitely not a new idea! I'm working on the assumption that it hasn't caught on because it's a pain to do without proper tooling; but it's also true that many engineers believe estimation is useless, impossible, and a waste of time or worse. It can be hard to overcome the pain of having been burned by a too-tight timeline.
  • FourthProtocol 5y ago
    Steve McConnell wrote the Construx Estimation Tool way back in the '90s. It made use of Monte Carlo simulations. I still have a copy.
• c17r 5y ago
  Came here to bring up FogBugz having this if someone else didn't already.
• commandlinefan 5y ago
  > I'm surprised that it didn't become more popular It gave managers answers they didn't want to hear.