4 ms·

These cycles are getting faster: 1. I read a post on HN extolling a new use of some technology. I understand how it works but don't get why. I do not jump on

These cycles are getting faster: 1. I read a post on HN extolling a new use of some technology. I understand how it works but don't get why. I do not jump on the bandwagon. 2. I read about the same technology but not on HN - maybe an online newspaper. I recognise there is an upcurve. Maybe I should have jumped when I read it on HN. 3. Beeple makes a fortune. My son and I enjoy watching him on corridor crew. I think I still don't know why but it can't be that bad. I do not jump on the bandwagon. 4. I realise I want to know the why makes sense. I play with some tech. I still know how but not why. I do not jump on the bandwagon. 5. The bubble bursts. I retro-think my inaction into foresight - I am glad I did not jump on the bandwagon. But, just maybe, perhaps why is less important than try.

Barrin92 5y ago
your inaction was perfectly fine. There's always a few lucky people who benefit off these things, millions don't and you don't see them. It's like becoming a TikTok star. One guy creates a meme, gets ten milion views, lives in a mansion in California. Millions of kids think they can do the same thing and drop out of school. Not worth it. I remember reading a blog post by a Wall Street banker talking about the pre-2008 culture. He said that it was common for people to get promoted because they made money, even if they didn't know why. Justifying bad decisions based on lucky outcomes retroactively isn't a culture you want to emulate.
- caractacus 5y ago
  "Millions of kids think they can do the same thing and drop out of school." They do? Is this what you think is happening to millions of kids?
  - Barrin92 5y ago
    "According to a Harris Poll/Lego survey covering the United States, Britain, and China, 29% of children aged eight to 12 want to be a “YouTuber.” That’s three times as many as those who want to be astronauts. Other polls suggest an even higher percentage of teenagers aspire to fame and fortune via YouTube or another social media platform. An eye-grabbing news report out this month suggested a whopping 54% of Americans aged 13 to 38 would become an “influencer” given the chance, with 12% already considering themselves influencers." There's been an entire industry of so called "content houses" popping up. Okay maybe not literally millions are dropping out of school but it has become a real thing with a non-trivial amount of teenagers and 20-somethings ditching careers for what is basically entertainment gigs. https://www.fastcompany.com/90432765/why-do-kids-want-to-be-influencers https://www.fastcompany.com/90432765/why-do-kids-want-to-be-...
    - viraptor 5y ago
      Reminds me how many people on HN... over a decade ago? were taking about dropping out of school to do startups. Ignoring that their heroes often dropped out because they didn't have time to deal with the school and their existing business, and not before they even started the company.
      - thnujmikk 5y ago
        Haha so glad someone brought this up
    - TimonKnigge 5y ago
      I don't see how this is much different from kids in earlier generations wanting to become footballers, actors and djs.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
Grustaf 5y ago
You forgot 3.5, the step where A16Z breathlessly extols the technology in 5 podcast episodes and start a fund focusing on it...
- lifeisstillgood 5y ago
  Fair enough. I have a lot of respect for Andressen (with some caveats held as well) and his ability to spot oncoming waves. The whole all-in on crypto is one area I am still unsure on (even after coinbase went public for however many billions). Great investment - but is it great foresight ? On the other hand I will support his call "double down on democracy".
  - Grustaf 5y ago
    I mean Coinbase can be a good investment regardless. It's like investing in a lottery company, that's a good investment, but it doesn't mean buying lottery tickets is...
mettamage 5y ago
I think try >> why [0] is one of the unwritten mantras that the cryptocurrency space is going by. If someone would see a roadmap to tokenize sharks with lasers [1], they would do their best to get funding for it and a team to implement it. Why would you do that? Because try >> why This doesn't apply to all people in the space obviously, some have a very strong philosophy as to why something needs to exist. With that said, I do think a lot of people are on the hype train that adheres to try > why [0] with >> I mean the math operator "much bigger than", not a bitshift. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3GKVWcBLNU&ab_channel=MidasFuryMidasFury https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3GKVWcBLNU&ab_channel=Midas...
dfxm12 5y ago
What would jumping on the bandwagon mean in this case? If you think you could've been Beeple, that bandwagon left in 2007 when he started making Everydays, or maybe in 2019 when his work was associated with Louis Vuitton. If you think you could've been Christie's, that wagon left long before that... People who are already rich/famous in some way are benefitting from this stuff. Are regular joes making anything worth while? As for the why, well, you can look at similar purchases: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/business/art-money-laundering-sanctions-senate/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/business/art-money-laundering...

Barrin92 5y ago

your inaction was perfectly fine. There's always a few lucky people who benefit off these things, millions don't and you don't see them. It's like becoming a TikTok star. One guy creates a meme, gets ten milion views, lives in a mansion in California. Millions of kids think they can do the same thing and drop out of school. Not worth it. I remember reading a blog post by a Wall Street banker talking about the pre-2008 culture. He said that it was common for people to get promoted because they made money, even if they didn't know why. Justifying bad decisions based on lucky outcomes retroactively isn't a culture you want to emulate.

caractacus 5y ago
"Millions of kids think they can do the same thing and drop out of school." They do? Is this what you think is happening to millions of kids?
- Barrin92 5y ago
  "According to a Harris Poll/Lego survey covering the United States, Britain, and China, 29% of children aged eight to 12 want to be a “YouTuber.” That’s three times as many as those who want to be astronauts. Other polls suggest an even higher percentage of teenagers aspire to fame and fortune via YouTube or another social media platform. An eye-grabbing news report out this month suggested a whopping 54% of Americans aged 13 to 38 would become an “influencer” given the chance, with 12% already considering themselves influencers." There's been an entire industry of so called "content houses" popping up. Okay maybe not literally millions are dropping out of school but it has become a real thing with a non-trivial amount of teenagers and 20-somethings ditching careers for what is basically entertainment gigs. https://www.fastcompany.com/90432765/why-do-kids-want-to-be-influencers https://www.fastcompany.com/90432765/why-do-kids-want-to-be-...
  - viraptor 5y ago
    Reminds me how many people on HN... over a decade ago? were taking about dropping out of school to do startups. Ignoring that their heroes often dropped out because they didn't have time to deal with the school and their existing business, and not before they even started the company.
    - thnujmikk 5y ago
      Haha so glad someone brought this up
  - TimonKnigge 5y ago
    I don't see how this is much different from kids in earlier generations wanting to become footballers, actors and djs.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

Grustaf 5y ago

You forgot 3.5, the step where A16Z breathlessly extols the technology in 5 podcast episodes and start a fund focusing on it...

lifeisstillgood 5y ago
Fair enough. I have a lot of respect for Andressen (with some caveats held as well) and his ability to spot oncoming waves. The whole all-in on crypto is one area I am still unsure on (even after coinbase went public for however many billions). Great investment - but is it great foresight ? On the other hand I will support his call "double down on democracy".
- Grustaf 5y ago
  I mean Coinbase can be a good investment regardless. It's like investing in a lottery company, that's a good investment, but it doesn't mean buying lottery tickets is...

mettamage 5y ago

I think try >> why [0] is one of the unwritten mantras that the cryptocurrency space is going by. If someone would see a roadmap to tokenize sharks with lasers [1], they would do their best to get funding for it and a team to implement it. Why would you do that? Because try >> why This doesn't apply to all people in the space obviously, some have a very strong philosophy as to why something needs to exist. With that said, I do think a lot of people are on the hype train that adheres to try > why [0] with >> I mean the math operator "much bigger than", not a bitshift. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3GKVWcBLNU&ab_channel=MidasFuryMidasFury https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3GKVWcBLNU&ab_channel=Midas...

dfxm12 5y ago

What would jumping on the bandwagon mean in this case? If you think you could've been Beeple, that bandwagon left in 2007 when he started making Everydays, or maybe in 2019 when his work was associated with Louis Vuitton. If you think you could've been Christie's, that wagon left long before that... People who are already rich/famous in some way are benefitting from this stuff. Are regular joes making anything worth while? As for the why, well, you can look at similar purchases: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/business/art-money-laundering-sanctions-senate/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/business/art-money-laundering...