my take: 1. It's an assertion. I think a punctuated equilibrium model is a reasonable argument looking at the last 250 years or so of technology progress but I

my take: 1. It's an assertion. I think a punctuated equilibrium model is a reasonable argument looking at the last 250 years or so of technology progress but I agree he does not present data. 2. I understood this to mean that a breakthrough is a "combination lock" event that requires multiple positive events to align. If counter parties are more suspicious of you then the odds of a favorable interaction go from 50% to 30% so the odds crater. 3. Your reputation is bounded within a group context. Your weak ties are more likely to lead novel insights and (see for example Granovetter's "Strength of Weak Ties" https://sociology.stanford.edu/publications/strength-weak-ties https://sociology.stanford.edu/publications/strength-weak-ti...) by enabling unique combinations of multiple ideas. I think your critique is accurate but from my perspective Lui's article represents some very innovative thinking that offer the core of several valuable insights.