I wouldn't be so terribly sure. <em>Mississippi</em> voters approved medical marijuana last year by a fairly strong majority https://ballotpedia.org/Mississipp

I wouldn't be so terribly sure. <em>Mississippi</em> voters approved medical marijuana last year by a fairly strong majority https://ballotpedia.org/Mississippi_Ballot_Measure_1,_Initiative_65_and_Alternative_65A,_Medical_Marijuana_Amendment_(2020) https://ballotpedia.org/Mississippi_Ballot_Measure_1,_Initia.... The vote was complicated by competing "initiatives", one of which was written by the legislature, and by a legal challenge to the rules surrounding initiatives in the state that ultimately led to the state Supreme Court striking it down, but 68.5% approved of at least one of the two competing proposals, and of them 73.7% voted for the one that was actually a popular initiative. It was popularly perceived that the "medical" requirement would not last for more than a few years before recreational was legalized. So while it might still be a deal-killer in, say, Utah, I don't think it holds nearly the sway it did even ten years ago. It got almost as many votes as the presidential race, and even if you assume that every Biden voter was pro-legalization, there are nearly 300k extra "yea" votes you have to account for. You only make that go away if you assume that every Biden voter was pro-legalization and voted for the citizen initiative, and that every Trump voter who voted to legalize voted for the (more restrictive) legislative proposal instead of just voting against it or choosing the citizen proposal.