For me, it is similar to the doomsday argument[1]. An argument that predicts the likely end of humanity by year 10000, using only statistics. There are 8 rebutt

For me, it is similar to the doomsday argument[1]. An argument that predicts the likely end of humanity by year 10000, using only statistics. There are 8 rebuttals in the Wikipedia article alone... The problem in the article is that it tries to predict something with nothing but a single data point. In which it explicitly argues that you can: you can have an idea about how fast a human can run by clocking a single human (Usain Bolt). However you have absolutely no way of knowing if it is fast or slow for a human, at least not without making assumptions to create artificial data points. It doesn't mean it is wrong to believe aliens are big, but I think it is wrong to believe anything about how aliens would compare to us using maths alone. Considering that we don't know any aliens, the argument for big aliens have to be somehow backed by observation, physics, chemistry, etc... not just statistics. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument