Evaluating whether something is likely to be true is not the same thing as evaluating whether something is true. If I'm in a windowless room and don't know whe

Evaluating whether something is likely to be true is not the same thing as evaluating whether something is true. If I'm in a windowless room and don't know whether it's raining outside, I might assume based on the season that it is more or less likely to be currently raining. That does not mean that if I actually look outside in the middle of summer, I won't believe my eyes if I see raindrops.