> The point he’s making is that if you don’t know what the factors are, then your best bet is to pick from the larger group — you’ll be more likely to be correc

> The point he’s making is that if you don’t know what the factors are, then your best bet is to pick from the larger group — you’ll be more likely to be correct. If your best bet only has a miniscule probability of being right, then your best meta-bet is not to bet. At some point the correct conclusion is to say "We don't know", instead of fooling ourselves with empirically-unsupported navel gazing.