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Yes, but it covers that - out of all the possible times to make the video, this one is more probable because the population is higher and there are more profess
by marcus_holmes 5y ago
Yes, but it covers that - out of all the possible times to make the video, this one is more probable because the population is higher and there are more professors of statistics with free time on their hands.
I find the other corollary worrying - we're more likely to be existing at a point in time when we are a higher population than any other. In other words, this is likely to be a high point in human population over time, and our future contains less people than now.
- nearbuy 5y agoThat corollary is known as the Doomsday Argument: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument
- simiones 5y agoThe corollary also shows the limitations: you can't actually come up with a real probability for being wrong without knowing other things about this distribution (you can't know how likely you are to be in the most populous time in the history of the human race without knowing the entire past and future history). So the whole argument from statistics holds no water: it depends entirely on other arguments that give a shape to the distribution, and those arguments have their own problems and ways that they can be attacked.